Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 4 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Huskie Stadium — DeKalb, IL
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-3.5)
- Over/under: 38.5
- All-time series: Miami (OH) leads, 12-9
- Last meeting: Miami (OH) 20, Northern Illinois 9 — November 19, 2024
- Current streak: Miami (OH), 4 (2018-24)
Setting the scene
The Mallory Cup will be awarded for the final time before Northern Illinois heads to the Mountain West. The trophy was created in 2018 after the passing of head coach Bill Mallory, who served stints at both MAC programs. Since the advent of the prize, Miami (OH) has dominated with a 4-0 record, and all four games were relatively low-scoring — with neither the RedHawks nor Huskies reaching 30 points.
Another low-scoring bout is expected in DeKalb with an over/under at 38.5, featuring two programs recently
renowned for defensive prowess. This all serves as the MAC opener for the RedHawks and Huskies alike which can get one stop closer to their ultimate goal of a MAC championship — something both head coaches Chuck Martin and Thomas Hammock experienced within the past four seasons.
Miami (OH) RedHawks outlook
Miami (OH) (1-3, 0-0 MAC) was one of five winless FBS teams until last week. The RedHawks unleashed all their frustration in a commanding 38-0 shutout over FCS Lindenwood, finally appearing in the win column for the first time since the 2024 Arizona Bowl.
Although the team experienced significant overhaul this offseason, this isn’t uncharted territory for Chuck Martin and his staff. Miami started 0-3 last year before picking up its first win and gaining the necessary momentum to qualify for the MAC Championship Game. Miami has thrived against its conference peers lately, finishing 14-2 in the last two regular seasons vs. MAC opponents.
One hurdle Miami may have to face is an injury to starting quarterback Dequan Finn, who left the Week 4 contests vs. UNLV with a lower-body ailment. The seventh-year senior, who suited up four times against NIU while at Toledo, missed last week’s contest but Martin is optimistic for a potential return. Finn averages 8.8 yards per passing attempt, which is more than any other MAC starting quarterback. In addition to explosiveness through the air, Finn endangers defenses with his mobility, peaking with 85 rushing yards at Rutgers in three games as a RedHawk.
If Finn is unable to go, Miami has full confidence in backup Henry Hesson who earned his first start since the 2023 Cure Bowl last week. Hesson enjoyed a sharp performance against Lindenwood with 208 yards and two touchdowns on 13 completions, and the fifth-year senior has been with offensive coordinator Pat Welsh the entire time — having a figurative PhD in Miami’s playbook.
After struggling to generate anything on the ground against a pair of Big Ten opponents, Miami’s run game has shown promising breakthroughs in the last two outings. Kenny Tracy is fresh off back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, and he totaled over 100 receiving yards and three total touchdowns over that timeframe. He’ll operate as the lead back, but NIU presents a step up in defense from the previous two opponents.
Other skill position players Welsh’s offense will look for include receivers Kam Perry and Keith Reynolds. Perry is thriving as one of the MAC’s top home run hitters, racking up 352 yards on 29.3 yards per reception. The second-year RedHawk rides a three-game streak of 100-yard performances, snagging a 40+ yard catch in each one. Reynolds assists him with 149 yards on the year, and his versatility is a treat. He managed 43 rushing yards on four attempts last week and returned a kickoff for a touchdown against UNLV two weeks ago.
Miami’s defense has flipped between great and concerning this year, thriving against FCS Lindenwood and Wisconsin while surrendering 40+ to Rutgers and UNLV. Twelfth-year Miami staffer Bill Brechin is working with a revamped group, but his defenses typically get stronger as the seasons progress. Among the RedHawks’ top talent is their safety tandem of Eli Blakey and Silas Walters. Blakey ranks first on the team with 40 tackles and he’s on track for his second-straight All-MAC selection. Walters is another havoc creator with two interceptions and 25 tackles as hard-hitter from the defensive backfield.
The coverage effort extends to the linebacking corps where Corban Hondru has been a force. He is second on the team in tackles and picked off two passes in the UNLV game — summing to seven interceptions across the last three seasons as the best ballhawking linebacker in this year’s MAC. However, the run defense still needs work as evidenced by the UNLV film, and the RedHawks may get starting defensive tackle Roosevelt Andrews back in the lineup for his 2025 debut.
Northern Illinois Huskies outlook
Northern Illinois (1-3, 0-0 MAC) did not replicate a signature non-conference moment this year like it did in 2024 at Notre Dame. After outlasting FCS foe Holy Cross 19-17 in the opener, the Huskies dropped three-straight contests to enter MAC play. NIU’s defense hung tight for extended periods of time in all three defeats, but the offense never reached a functional level to manufacture a win. Last week’s 6-3 loss to San Diego State was essentially a microcosm of every Huskies’ matchup thus far.
Northern Illinois currently ranks last in the FBS at 10.5 points per game. The Huskies are one of three programs averaging under 100 passing yards per game, and they’re not receiving as great of support in the run game as they’re accustomed to, picking up 3.6 yards per rushing attempt. This combination creates frequent third-and-long situations, and the Huskies’ passing offense has not been able to cross the sticks in most instances, converting fewer than 28 percent of third downs.
The Huskies are slated to start Josh Holst at quarterback for the fifth-straight game to start 2025. However, a notable change was made on the depth chart at quarterback. Backup Jackson Proctor is no longer with the team, thrusting Brady Davidson into the second-string role. Against San Diego State, Davidson briefly checked in effort to spark the offense but finished 1-of-2 for 8 yards and an interception while Holst went 6-of-14 for 49 yards.
When NIU completes a pass, DeAree Rogers is often on the receiving end. The Division II transfers has 21 receptions — three times more than anyone else on the roster — for 224 yards — almost five times more than anyone else on the roster. He is also the recipient of the Huskies’ lone touchdown pass and will be heavily called upon to ignite the aerial game against Miami.
However, Northern Illinois’ M.O. in the Thomas Hammock era has always been the run game. NIU rushes 41 times per game, mainly involving the running back duo of Chavon Wright and Telly Johnson Jr., along with Holst, to chew clock, move the sticks, and shorten the game. Johnson features 252 rushing yards on a 4.8 average while Wright is at 251 with 4.0 yards per carry. If the Huskies choose to dig deeper, there’s Jaylen Poe who has thrived in limited rushing attempts while ranking second on the team with seven receptions.
As rough as an offensive start as it’s been in DeKalb, make no mistake — this defense can generate stops. Undefeated Maryland struggled mightily and collected just 20 points on a Friday night win over the Huskies. Even Mississippi State, which was just involved in a shootout vs. Tennessee, managed just 14 points in the first half. And then of course, there’s San Diego State which didn’t notch a single touchdown in its 6-3 win over NIU.
Mississippi State, in fact, is the only NIU opponent to score 30 points in the Huskies’ last 21 outings. This defense possesses the firepower to muck up the game against any caliber of opponent. They rank 28th in passing defense and 42nd in total yards allowed per game at the current moment, limiting three of four challengers to 20 points or below. Inside linebacker Quinn Urwiler has been a force at the heart of the defense, picking up 50 tackles to rank seventh in the FBS (the second-most among those with four games played).
Starring in the coverage unit is strong safety Muhammed Jammeh who is responsible for 22 tackles (third on the team) and an NIU-best two interceptions on the year. The coverage consistently steps up in critical situations, stifling opponents to a 32.7 percent third down conversion rate this season.
Prediction
If you want points or touchdowns, this is not your game. This is going to be the ultimate grind-it-out battle of complementary football. Both offenses have been subject to struggles this year with NIU ranking last in the nation in points per game and Miami posting just 17 points in its first two matchups.
These are two of the MAC’s stronger defenses, and that should further force both offenses into uncomfortable situations Saturday. Miami has shown much more explosiveness in its passing game, with wide receivers Kam Perry and Keith Reynolds producing occasional home run plays. That will be the deciding effort in this one, but neither team is breaking three touchdowns in the final installment of the Mallory Cup.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 16, Northern Illinois 9
