After 11 games, the Kansas City Royals own a mediocre 5-6 record. That actually has them tied for the third Wild Card spot, which goes to show how early is still is in the season. It’s frustrating that Bobby Witt Jr. is off to a slow start and concerning that Vinnie Pasquantino is once again off to a cold start, but one big game from either of them can quickly change that narrative. Our priors about what we thought and hoped this team could be are more accurate indicators of what to expect moving
forward than assuming that Kyle Isbel will remain the best hitter.
Something I noticed in the offseason is that the Royals valued hitters who did not chase pitches, both in the batters that they acquired and the ones that they gave contract extensions too. If you’ve been a Royals fan for basically any period of time, you know that this is a big philosophical change. Understanding the strike zone, laying off tough pitches and drawing walks have traditionally not been important in Kansas City. Last summer, the esteemed Brian Henry looked at how historically terrible Royals hitters are at drawing walks, writing:
Going all the way back to 1969, if you track all 30 organizations, the Royals are 30th out of 30 in walk rate at 7.7% – the only team under 8%. Over that period, there are 1,588 team seasons and the Royals have four of the ten worst walk rate seasons.
So while it’s still early in the season, we should at least acknowledge that this Royals team looks different. While their timely hitting has left something to be desired so far, Kansas City hitters are laying off pitches outside the strike zone and drawing walks. They are eighth in MLB in walk percentage with a 11.0% walk rate. They finished 29th last season (7.2%) and 28th in 2024 (7.2%). They are still making a lot of contact, ranking fifth in contact rate. They have a 23 percent strikeout rate, near the middle of the league, but only three three teams that strike out less have a better walk rate, and they are ninth in walk-to-strikeout ratio.
This increase in walk percentage looks sustainable. The Royals now employ more hitters who are patient and don’t chase many pitches outside the zone. Even some of the hitters that have been here for awhile have made progress in that area. As a result, the Royals have greatly improved their swing percentage on pitches outside the strike zone, as measured by O-Swing%. From 2015-2025, the Royals have had the third worst O-Swing% in baseball. They started to finally make a little bit of progress in their swing decisions last year, particularly after the All-Star Break, and that momentum has carried into 2026.
Fangraphs has four different plate discipline systems on their website, and they all agree that the Royals have one of the best O-Swing% in baseball:
Three of the four systems currently categorize the Royals as a top-three team when it comes to swinging at pitches outside the zone. O-Swing% stabilizes very early in the year, around 150 plate appearances for hitters. While we aren’t there yet, we will be before the end of April. While it’s too early to assume the Royals will stay in the top three of O-Swing% all year, it seems safe to say that they have made real progress when it comes to making good swing decisions.
There is more to scoring runs than simply not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. For example, it will be critical for Jac Caglianone to raise his average launch angle from a team-worst 0.8 degrees to something near Pasquantino’s 20.8-degree average launch angle. Still, I think the underlying numbers suggest that the Royals will have quality plate discipline this year while maintaining their above-average contact rate. Those are two key ingredients to a successful offense, along with hitting the ball with power. While the Royals will need more hitters besides Carter Jensen to start sending the ball over the wall, there’s good reason to hope Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr., and Salvador Perez will heat up to their standard levels.
As someone who is a fan of watching hitters lay off tough pitches and work the count to their advantage, I’m excited about the prospect of the Royals finally employing hitters who have that skill. Despite the mediocre start to the 2026 season, I think there are still good reasons to believe in this team.
