“Aren’t the Reds kinda-sorta good every year and on the fringe of contention?“ I wondered, before finally examining this year’s team. They’re 42-58 after a 20-11 start. Reminiscent of last year’s Giants, I’d say. But, technically, aren’t the Reds supposed to have a lot more talent on the roster? First and foremost, there’s Elly De La Cruz, a player who’s the envy of every other franchise? Isn’t that Chase Burns having a pretty great season on the mound? Both true, but they haven’t been enough to make
the team competitive.
The Reds’ lineup is dead last in the sport in terms of value (6.5 fWAR), thanks to a line of .227/.307/.392 (88 wRC+ — also 30th in MLB). You might be thinking, “Wait, don’t they play in a bandbox called The Great American Ballpark?” And you’d be right. It’s one of the best parks for hitting. That ought to underscore just how poor the team’s lineup is. They’ve scored 14 more runs than the Giants (537 to 523 — 25th and 27th in MLB, respectively), but that’s not saying much. But, they are also the best at the ABS challenge system? They’ve won 57% of their challenges (82 of 144) at the plate and 68% (108/159) in the field. The Giants are bad at everything. But the Reds’ hitting woes didn’t necessarily have to sink them.
Their pitching has been bad, too.
Their team fWAR of 9.0 is 22nd in MLB. They’re just ahead of your San Francisco Giants (8.7), which is a real surprise, because I figured the Giants would be even closer to the bottom. Since, you know, again, they’re bad at everything. But the Reds’ team ERA of 4.52 is hardly good. Their 4.73 xERA trails only the Rockies (5.22), Nationals (4.84), Dbacks and Royals (4.75). How is a team staff with some real talent about as good as the Rockies’?
I guess the secret is that after Chase Burns (and the seemingly perma-injured Hunter Greene), there’s not much talent there. Everyone on the staff outside of Burns and Green and reliever Luis May have FIPs of 4 or more. That’s awful. That’s dreadful, and it might not be entirely tied to the talent itself.
In one of their recent SB Nation Reacts polls, 47% of Reds fans (via our Reds sister site Red Reporter) laid blame for the season at the feet of the front office. Their site manager, Wick Terrell, summarizes it well:
They’re the ones that not only sent a Top 10 organizational prospect to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ke’Bryan Hayes and his chronically bad back, they’re also the ones that decided to take on the full $36 million still owed to him despite their perpetually tight budgets. They’re also the ones that sunk all their bullpen cash into Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, and Brock Burke, and the ones who threw Eugenio Suarez $15 million for his immediate decline.
They’re the ones who have seen the products of the 2022 Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray trades simply not materialize at all. They’re also the ones who couldn’t get Elly De La Cruz under long-term contract, officially putting the future of the franchise on short-term notice every day.
My only quibble from the outside looking in is that Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, and Brock Burke might’ve been huge upgrades to the Giants’ bullpen this season (lol).
So the Reds haven’t maximized their limited resources and have struggled mightily despite having some interesting talent, a fun ballpark for hitting, and a three Wild Card system.
They’ll be hosted by one of the most disappointing teams in the history of its own franchise, a continuation of a decade of failure (sorry, 2021 — you flukes still lost to the Dodgers), and a team that has no answers for what happened and is simply operating on faith that things will just magically get better. That a franchise that has struggled to develop prospects since moving from New York to San Francisco will be able to do so in a way that takes the team from abject losers (not just from a pro athlete standpoint, but from a moral character POV, too) to somewhat consistent fringe contenders. It’s a team that only fans could love hosting a team whose fans are starting to frustrate beyond reason.
No, but seriously, what’s going on with the Reds? Why aren’t they better?
Series Overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (52-78) vs. Cincinnati Reds (62-69)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Monday & Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Friday: TBD vs. Chase Burns (RHP 14-2, 2.51 ERA)
Saturday: TBD vs. Brady Singer (RHP 5-11, 4.72 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP 3-3, 5.04 ERA)
Players to watch
Reds (besides Elly De La Cruz)
JJ Bleday: It looked like Bleday’s career was bound for a year or two in the minors or overseas play but the Reds took a chance (?) and have gotten 21 HR and a .779 OPS out of the #4 overall pick from the 2019 draft who couldn’t hack it on the A’s. The 28-year old was signed to a 1-year, $1.4 million deal and has crushed right-handed pitching most of the season (.234/.349/.467 — .816 OPS). I say “most” because since the All-Star break (now 36 games for him), he’s hitting just .186/.303/.347. He has also been bad on the road all year (.908 home OPS vs. .660 road OPS). He’s just 11-for-his-last-60 which includes 9 road games out of 17 total. But drill down a bit more and he’s 8-for-his-last-27 with a double, a triple, and a homer. He’s also struck out 11 times in 30 PA and walked just 3 times, so, it’s possible he’s being a bit more aggressive at the plate to hit out of this post-break slump. Or, you know, he’s turning into a pumpkin.
Sal Stewart: He might not beat out JJ Wetherholt for NL Rookie of the Year, but it also might be pretty close. The 22-year old has 27 homers in 568 plate appearances to go with a line of .263/.336/.472 (.808). That’s also a 114 wRC+, which is less than Bryce Eldridge’s 119 wRC+ — so, ha! Take that, Eno Sarris? Eldridge seems to be handling the ups and downs of a big league season pretty well, I’d say, and so I wonder if his .252/.346/.435 season line would look better, worse, or about the same if the PA totals were similar. I do wonder if the diehardest Giants fans out there would hold fast to their “all Giants prospects are better than other teams’ prospects” if they saw Sal Stewart’s 98 RBI. As a rookie? I mean, c’mon. There’s no question who has been better this season between Sal Stewart and Bryce Eldridge, right? Also, Oracle Park’s favorability towards right-handed pull hitters would seem to set up this rookie slugger to have a better series than the Giants’ rookie slugger.
Chase Burns: Admittedly, with a seven-year gap between the Reds drafting Hunter Greene and Chase Burns, there’s not a case to be made that they have been extremely fortunate to draft aces with first round picks recently. That’s essentially luck. Then again, I wonder how many teams have gotten so much value out of first round picks. Just this century: Jeremy Sowers (2001), Homer Bailey (2004), Jay Bruce (2005), Drew Stubbs (2006), Todd Frazier (2007), Devin Mesoraco (2007), Yonder Alonso (2008), Brad Boxberger (2009), Mike Leake (2009), Yasmani Grandal (2010), Robert Stephenson (2011), Jeese Winker (2012), Michael Lorenzen (2013), Tyler Stephenson (2015), Hunter Greene (2017), Jonathan India (2018), Nick Lodolo (2019), Matt McLain (2021), Sal Stewart (2022), Rhett Lowder (2023), and Chase Burns (2024).
That’s great.
The Giants had a moment in time like that, too. Noah Lowry (2001), Brad Hennessey (2001), Matt Cain (2002), David Aardsma (2003), Tim Lincecum (2006), Madison Bumgarner (2007), Buster Posey (2008), Connor Gillaspie (2008), Zack Wheeler (2009), Gary Brown (2010), Kyle Crick (2011), Joe Panik (2011), Chris Stratton (2012), Christian Arroyo (2013), Phil Bickford (2015), Heliot Ramos (2017), Joey Bart (2018), Patrick Bailey (2020), Bryce Eldridge (2023).
But about Burns specifically, the Reds are 18-6 in his starts this season. When asked about his approach, Burns revealed himself to be a mindless throwing machine.
Like I said, just fill up the zone. I’m not trying to be too perfect. Line it up. Try to let them put it in play. I’m not a big in, out, up, and down guy. I’m kind of just throw it down the middle and let it eat. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I think it’s been working so far.
The power of being young. He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know and he has the physical talents that don’t yet require him to know any better. His four-seamer averaged 97.6 mph (thrown 56.4%) and his slider, which he throws 38.4% of the time spins at 2,771 rpm. It’s elite stuff. He has a changeup to keep hitters honest (5% of the time it’s thrown, 34.1% whiff rate) but he’s simply dominating with two pitches.
Now, as a team, the Giants are +1 in run value vs. the 4-seam fastball, but that’s based on 24 players who’ve seen the pitch at least 10 times and is only positive because 7 of the 24 have done well against the pitch. So.
Okay, but real quick about Elly De La Cruz. The 24-year old shortstop is having the best season of his career at the plate (.817 OPS in 502 PA), but he’s in a bit of a slump, too. Over the past 30 days, just a .712 OPS with only 6 stolen bases in 8 attempts. Since August 7th, he’s hitting just .182/.267/.318 (.585).
Giants
Rafael Devers: I think what a player does when nobody watches and nobody cares matters quite a lot when evaluating them. Nobody cares about the Giants and Rafael Devers is going to spend the rest of his career in an anonymous situation. He’s not going to be a Hall of Famer, he likely won’t make an All-Star game, and he probably won’t see the playoffs again. Is that the universe punishing him for not handling the Red Sox’s clear mismanagement of him with an unreasonable amount of grace? Or, is he simply not that great of a player?
He was a career 127 wRC+ hitter heading into this season. He’s at 116 through 130 games. Over the past calendar month, he’s hit .240/.347/.470 (126 wRC+) which looks good, but since August 7th, when the reality of the team’s post-trade deadline, post-relevance situation really sunk in, he’s down to .185/.302/.426 over his last 63. Going all the way back to the start of those 30 games, the Giants were 6-7 through August 6th, and 4-11 since.
Willy Adames: Lingering injuries might prevent him from having a hot end to his 2026, but he’s coming perilously close to posting his career worst and it’ll be hard to separate that from the Giants having one of their worst seasons ever.
Jung Hoo Lee: The Giants are 5-15 in August, 5-14 when Jung Hoo Lee has played. He’s hit just .234/.268/.390 in the month. He’s made just 11 challenges at the ABS all season (5/11) and seems like a player who should do it more. But the 45% success rate seems to have made him shy. Defensively, he’s — at best — unremarkable, and frequently fails the eye test. He’s too young to be considered a total bust, but this season has gone a long way towards cementing him as a fourth outfielder on a good team and a below average starter on a second division squad.
These are three presumably key players if the Giants hope to have a turnaround in the next couple of years, and all they’ve really done this season is give weight to the idea that the Giants are simply the farm upstate where retired dogs go to live out their days.
Prediction time
To answer my closing question above — Why aren’t the Reds better? — I’m sure we’ll be seeing their very best in this three-game series. Sure, they’re -50 in run differential on the road but they’re 30-33, record-wise. They’re 7-8 at Oracle post-COVID
