Conor McGregor has put on his best “good guy” act heading into his comeback fight at UFC 329. Now he actually has to do the damn thing.
It seems surreal that McGregor is actually just hours away from making the walk to the octagon considering the events of the past five years. McGregor’s activity had already fallen off a cliff for various reasons by the time he fought Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 in July 2021—just McGregor’s fifth fight since 2016 (including a boxing match with Floyd Mayweather)—but
the broken leg he suffered that loss signaled the start of a seemingly interminable layoff that had no shortage of diversions.
There was the civil suit that resulted in McGregor being found liable for sexual assault. The bizarre presidential bid in his native Ireland that was essentially dead in the water from Day 1. The toe injury that stifled his comeback at UFC 303 and left the Michael Chandler grudge match in permanent limbo. The starring role in the Road House remake. And that’s scraping the surface.
Somehow, McGregor has returned. He takes on a familiar face, Max Holloway, who lost to a pre-fame McGregor back in 2013 when the two were budding featherweights with their whole lives ahead of them. Thirteen years later, both fighters have piled up championships, and packed on a few pounds for their rematch at welterweight.
Saturday’s main event is the second-to-last fight on McGregor’s current contract. Win or lose, it’s anyone’s guess what he decides to do for his UFC swan song, not to mention his plans for unrestricted free agency (though a BKFC fight is all but guaranteed). McGregor turns 38 on Tuesday and if his fight with Holloway gives us an indication of anything, it’s how much he realistically has left in the gas tank.
In other main card action, lightweight contenders Benoit Saint Denis and Paddy Pimblett clash in the co-main event, Cory Sandhagen plays bantamweight gatekeeper to Mario Bautista, Brandon Royval looks to slow the red-hot Lone’er Kavanagh in a flyweight bout, and lightweights King Green and Terrance McKinney meet in what could be the most unpredictable fight of the night (I’ll explain later).
What: UFC 329
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, July 11. The five-fight early preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 7 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 9 p.m. ET with the entire event streaming live on Paramount+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway (5 LW, P4P-20)
Like my fine colleague Jed Meshew, I’m struggling to see how Conor McGregor wins this one.
Dude hasn’t fought in FIVE YEARS and I think we can all agree McGregor wasn’t exactly in prime form in his last handful of UFC appearances. The less said about his fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov, the better (hey, he won a round!). He ran through a Donald Cerrone who was on his way to closing out his career on a seven-fight winless streak. He had his moments against Dustin Poirier in two fights where he failed to make it out of the second round. That’s about it.
We know how good McGregor can be. His unbelievable 2013-2016 wasn’t smoke and mirrors. Even taking into account some favorable matchmaking, McGregor’s signature striking style and undeniable knockout power earned him victories over some of the best to ever do it. He even mixed the martial arts to grind out a decision over Max Holloway the first time they fought.
That version of McGregor is from a lifetime ago. Now, we don’t know what he is. Does that left hand still pack a punch? Probably. Could his one-of-a-kind movement give Holloway headaches? Sure. Is his cardio still questionable? Almost definitely. Did I mention he hasn’t fought in FIVE YEARS?
For better or worse, Holloway isn’t the same man he was 13 years ago either. His takedown defense is much improved, despite what his loss to Charles Oliveira showed, so don’t expect McGregor to wrestle his way to victory this time. It’s certainly a way to win a round or two, but can you picture this version of McGregor going (ironically) full Khabib for 25 minutes? I didn’t think so.
Holloway has also shown he can be chinned, something that was unfathomable for years, and that’s one reason—besides his enormous popularity—why McGregor is being given a puncher’s chance by the oddsmakers (at just under +200 on FanDuel, McGregor is a considerable but not astronomical underdog). That said, since McGregor’s last fight, Holloway has shared the octagon with the likes of Oliveira, Poirier, Ilia Topuria, Justin Gaethje, and Alexander Volkanovski, five of the best fighters of this generation. He is locked in.
Maybe McGregor is, too. Maybe he’s so focused on proving he still has it that he can channel the best version of himself one more time. Maybe it’s Holloway who’s closer to the end of his career. Maybe.
I doubt it. Holloway by knockout, Round 3.
Pick: Holloway
Benoit Saint Denis (7) vs. Paddy Pimblett (12)
My initial thought is to pick Benoit Saint Denis, because Paddy Pimblett has never faced an opponent in their prime with Saint Denis’ profile. Saint Denis is a berserker; flawed, yes, but a berserker nonetheless. With respect to onetime all-violence fighters Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson, they were somewhat—as the cool kids say—“washed” by the time they crossed paths with Pimblett. They’re not capable of the violence that Saint Denis might inflict on Pimblett in short order.
So why am I picking “The Baddy?” Because he’s impossible to kill.
I get it. There have been instances in Pimblett’s UFC career where his hype has been disproportionate to his performances. He squeaked past Jared Gordon in a fight that easily could have gone Gordon’s way on the cards. And as fun as his fight with Gaethje was, I never felt Pimblett was all that close to actually beating him.
The one thing that’s undeniable is that Pimblett can take a punch, can relentlessly grapple, and he competes from bell to bell. If Saint Denis can’t overwhelm Pimblett with his offense, he could find himself on the defensive later in the fight. As long as there’s time on the clock, if Saint Denis starts to crack, Pimblett will look to end this.
I demand drama, the kind of drama that will have fans buzzing well before Holloway and McGregor’s walkout songs hit. Give me Pimblett surviving an early storm and coming back with bravado to finish Saint Denis in the third.
Pick: Pimblett
Cory Sandhagen (5) vs. Mario Bautista (6)
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista is our second rematch on the card and a much more difficult one to predict.
Much has changed since they first fought in 2019, when Sandhagen’s wonky striking and dangerous ground game proved to be too much for a game Bautista. A lot has changed since then, though Bautista’s takedown defense remains a question mark. He’s comfortable letting his opponent initiate the grappling to set up a reversal and he’s not afraid to fight off of his back, but in a three-round fight that willingness to give up position could cost him. Sandhagen isn’t Umar Nurmagomedov, but he’s also happy to take the path of least resistance if it presents itself.
Bautista has become a more methodical fighter, which is why I expect this fight to go differently than the first. I hate to dwell on intangibles, but I am curious where Sandhagen’s motivation is at after finally receiving an undisputed title shot and possibly having to accept what his maximum level is. Sandhagen is awesome and there’s no shame in falling short of the championship, but can he find the same drive when another opportunity is so far out of reach?
It’s close, but I’m going Bautista by decision.
Pick: Bautista
Brandon Royval (6) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (8)
There are few gatekeepers tougher than Brandon Royval, and few prospects more promising than Lone’er Kavanagh. Someone is about to be dealt a disappointment.
Never count out a wounded animal. Royval has lost two straight fights, a Fight of the Year-winning effort against future champion Joshua Van and a knockout loss to the No. 1 contender Manel Kape. This decade, he’s only been tripped up by the best of the best, with Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Moreno also claiming wins over “Raw Dawg.” He’s also no stranger to playing the spoiler, just ask Tatsuro Taira.
So where does Kavanagh fit in all this? He looked sensational at UFC Mexico City, stepping in on short notice to spoil Moreno’s homecoming. Since winning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, Kavanagh has been touted as a future contender at 125 pounds and for good reason. He’s fast, has great striking, and has shown impressive maturity for a fighter who only recently turned 27.
I agree Kavanagh could be a future champion. I disagree that he’s finished paying his dues. One could argue that the Brandons are both on the decline, but I actually think Royval has a few more wild man brawls left in him and he’ll drag Kavanagh into one tonight.
An awesome fight that could go either way, I’m leaning towards Royval to take a decision.
Pick: Royval
King Green vs. Terrance McKinney
Here’s what I mean when I say this fight is unpredictable. We know someone is going to get finished, of that there is no question. It’s a Terrance McKinney fight. Terrance McKinney fights don’t go the distance. It would defy physics.
King Green has his fair share of one-round fights, too, but he’s also an MMA lifer who’s lasted as long as he has because he’s been able to adapt to any situation. Does he play McKinney’s game and trust his defense to hold up long enough for McKinney to leave his chin out there? Or does he go on the offensive immediately with the assumption that McKinney will wilt? Does he find a way to (gasp) push the fight past the first five minutes and completely turn McKinney’s world upside down?
Is Green’s surprising three-fight win streak for real or fugazi? Will McKinney simply be too fast for him? Green’s past three losses have all come in the first round, so is this actually the perfect opponent for McKinney? If McKinney wins, do we finally see him get a ranked opponent? Can the man who always fights to a finish actually get a freaking bonus for once?
I can’t convince myself that either fighter has a clear stylistic advantage, even though I can picture a dozen different scenarios for either Green or McKinney winning the fight. It makes no sense.
Green hasn’t won four straight fights in ages. This is usually where he slips on the proverbial banana peel. I’ll take McKinney to end this in the first.
Pick: McKinney
Preliminaries
Robert Whittaker (12 MW) def. Nikita Krylov (14)
Gable Steveson def. Elisha Ellison
Adrian Yanez def. Cody Garbrandt
Luke Riley def. Kai Kamaka III
Wang Cong def. Tracy Cortez (12)
Damian Pinas def. Cesar Almeida
Farid Basharat def. John Garza
Ryan Gandra def. Zachary Reese
Alessandro Costa def. Cody Durden
