Sunday features a double-digit spread match-up against two teams heading in polar opposite directions. The Cincinnati Bengals have lost two in a row, both without franchise player Joe Burrow, while the Detroit Lions are in the midst of a three-game winning wave.
Cincinnati’s struggles have been glaring—the Burrow-less Bengals have lost their last two games by an average of 31.5 points. Historically, though, it’s been the Bengals who have ruled this series, taking 10 of the last 11 meetings and seven
straight by an average margin of 11 points. Detroit’s last win came way back in 1992.
But if there’s ever a time for history to flip, it’s now. The Bengals are limping in, while the Lions look every bit like the Kings of the Jungle, ready to maul an opponent that suddenly feels vulnerable.
Detroit’s high-powered offense will test a Bengals defense that has regressed under new coordinator Al Golden, slipping from 25.5 points allowed per game to 29.8. They’ll be backed by Kelvin Sheppard’s surging defense, though the Lions will be without their top corner, D.J. Reed.
Let’s dig into three key numbers that could decide whether this matchup stays competitive.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
Cut to the Chase
Bengals All-Pro wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and quarterback Jake Browning haven’t exactly been in sync through Browning’s first two starts. Chase managed 50 yards on five catches against the Vikings in Week 3 and only 23 yards on five catches against the Broncos—both top-12 defenses in passing DVOA (Minnesota #1). Their lone spark came back in Week 2, when Chase posted 10 catches for 128 yards after Browning relieved Joe Burrow midgame. Still, across Browning’s seven starts in 2023, the duo produced just one 100-yard game. Neutralizing that connection will be pivotal for Detroit.
One dial Kelvin Sheppard has turned differently from past Lions’ defenses is a heavier reliance on zone coverage. Last season, Detroit played zone on just 54.6% of snaps (32nd), leading the NFL in man coverage rate. This year, they’ve shifted to 60.4% zone (27th), while climbing into the top 20 in usage of Cover 2 and Cover 3.
The results in zone have been a mixed bag:
- 105.7 passer rating (29th)
- 8.0 yards/attempt (t-24th)
- 73.8% completion percentage (t-25th)
- 39.2 offensive success rate (6th)
- -0.09 EPA/dropback (23rd)
- 13.8% explosive pass rate (19th)
- 28.4% pressure rate (24th)
- 12.2% sack rate (2nd)
- 24.3% blitz rate (4th)
So while Sheppard’s unit has been able to get home—sacks on 12.2% of dropbacks, second-best in the league—the Lions have still been burned too often given the contrasting statistics aside from success rate.
That makes Chase a particularly dangerous challenge. Against zone this season, he’s been lethal: 23 receptions (2nd among WRs), 253 yards (5th), 11 first downs (5th), plus two drawn DPIs (t-1st). By contrast, against man coverage he has just three catches for 11 yards and a touchdown.
How the Lions handle Chase when dropping into zone coverage—and whether they can erase him in man—will heavily dictate whether the Bengals can move the football with any consistency.
Too cool for two-high?
Another noticeable change under Sheppard has been the Lions’ increased use of single-high safety looks. Detroit, with its tendency to reinforce the run and its complementary safety duo of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, leads the NFL in single-high coverage on 64.0% of opponent dropbacks this season — up from 56.4% last year (12th).
Meanwhile, over the past two weeks, the Vikings and Broncos have hammered the Bengals and Jake Browning with two-high safety looks, playing it on 77.9% of his dropbacks (second most in the NFL). The Broncos, typically a single-high defense, notably shifted their approach to crowd Browning’s passing windows. Unsurprisingly, Browning has struggled against two-high coverage (excluding garbage time)
- 60.2 passer rating (31st)
- 6.2 yards/attempt (20th)
- 34.9% success rate (30th)
- -0.71 EPA/dropback (32nd)
- 5.6% interception rate (30th)
- 58.1% pressure rate (32nd)
- 14.3% sack rate (28th)
With two safeties deep, defenses have taken away the vertical windows for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, suffocating Cincinnati’s ability to generate explosive plays or string together sustained drives behind one of the league’s most porous offensive lines. The coverage clouds appear to be causing paralysis more than confusion—over the past two games, Browning has targeted his first read on just 40.0% of attempts (28th), with a 1.7% second-read throw rate (27th). For context, Jared Goff is at 64.3% on first reads (3rd). That means more than half of Browning’s throws are going to his third read or later—a recipe for late decisions, growing pressure, and inflated sack rates.
Protection issues have compounded the problem. Left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., right tackle Amarius Mims, and rookie left guard Dylan Fairchild have each allowed six pressures over the past two weeks, further destabilizing an already fragile offense.
Another reason teams are able to take the air out of the Bengals passing attack is the inability of that Bengals offensive line, along with running back Chase Brown, to generate any ground game.
Over that same two-game span, Cincinnati’s rushing attack has been abysmal: 2.8 yards/attempt, 1.88 yards after contact/attempt, and -46.4 rushing EPA—all last in the league. They’re 31st in rushing success rate (36.4%), explosive-run rate (3.0%), and adjusted line yards/attempt (1.3)—and that’s despite facing light boxes on 46.1% of rushing attempts (6th-most).
Much of today’s NFL goes back to the basics with a prerequisite for success being ability to run the damn ball. Bottom line: without a credible ground threat, Cincinnati’s passing windows tighten under two-high coverage, which teams are able to play without a rushing attack, and pressure builds on Browning—exactly the kind of self-inflicted problem Detroit’s defense should look to exploit.
Came up light
While on the topic of pounding the pill, under new defensive coordinator Al Golden, the Bengals have shown a noticeable uptick in light-box usage. They’ve deployed a light box on 53.3% of defensive snaps this season—fifth most in the league after ranking outside the top 10 last year—and it hasn’t exactly paid off. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom 10 in run success rate, yards before contact per attempt, and stuff rate (4.7%).
Choosing to leave Logan Wilson and rookie Demetrius Knight Jr. as the lone second-level defenders against Detroit’s ground game could prove costly. Knight’s 29.7 PFF run-defense grade ranks 83rd out of 83 linebackers, and his 15.4% missed tackle rate could lead to more whiffs than stops. Both Knight (6.0) and Wilson (4.5) also rank in the bottom 20 among linebackers in average depth of tackle (yards)—a telling indicator of how often opposing backs are reaching the second level before being brought down.
The Lions haven’t faced many light boxes this season. Defenses know better than to give their offensive line and run game a numbers advantage. Detroit has faced light boxes on only 29.4% of rushes (third fewest), even less than last year’s league-low 32.6%. But when opponents make that mistake, the Lions have made them pay (excluding garbage time):
- 9.1 yards/carry (1st)
- 33.3% success rate (30th)
- +0.11 EPA/rush (4th)
- 13.3% explosive play rate (10th)
- 3.40 yards before contact/attempt (3rd)
- 5.73 yards after contact/rush (2nd)
- 20.0% stuff rate (27th)
As you can see, Detroit’s rushing attack against light boxes has been a fireworks factory—volatile, yes, but capable of detonating at any moment. It’s been boom-or-bust: either wide-open lanes for explosive plays or occasional breakdowns leading to penetrating losses.
Some of those negative plays came against dominant downhill units like Green Bay and Cleveland, and some from early-season chemistry issues along the offensive line—both expected to stabilize as the season goes on. Against this Bengals front, though, those same light boxes should spark the same excitement in Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Jared Goff as the words “treat” or “outside” do for a dog.
Interior linemen B.J. Hill, T.J. Slaton, and Kris Jenkins could have a long day ahead, getting double-teamed into the laps of Wilson and Knight as the Lions build an early lead and lean on the ground game to batter through Cincinnati for four quarters. Expect a heavy workload for Gibbs—and especially Montgomery in his Cincinnati homecoming—in a game where the Lions’ offensive line should take over.
