Next stop in The Annual Statistical Doppelgänger Machine Tour: Switzerland. Well, kinda. No skiing or fancy-schmancy watches or neutrality — just a look at which players in NBA history had seasons that looked the most like what Kyshawn George did last season.
For those who haven’t memorized the birthplaces and childhood homes of every Wizards player, George was born and raised in Switzerland.
To my eye, the broadly favorable view of George’s performance got ahead of his actual performance. He looks
good out there, he does many good things, and he does plenty of negative things as well.
To me, the biggest positive is his confidence. It also might be his biggest weakness. There’s good three-point shooting (38.1%) on above average volume, and 7.3 assists per 100 team possessions (well above average). He’s a competent ball handler, he’s tough, and he plays with a relentlessness and physicality that’s at times admirable.
He also commits a ton of turnovers (4.3 per 100 possessions — compare to a league average of 2.8) and fouls (5.8 per 100 possessions). George’s shot selection inside the three-point line was…well…let’s call it “adventurous,” and that sense of adventure contributed to shooting just 48.6% on twos — compared to a league average of 55.0%.
He finished well when he got to the rim (73.1%). The issue: lots of floater range attempts at a 35.7% conversion rate.
The good and bad tallied to an 87 score in my PPA metric. League average in PPA is 100. That’s fine for a second-year player who’s just 22-years-old picked 24th overall. The point here is merely that he still needs to make significant improvements to earn a starting role with the Wizards going forward.
Let’s get to the doppelgängers. And, unlike the comps for Bilal Coulibaly, you won’t need to take safety precautions for these:
- Justise Winslow | 2018-19 | Miami Heat | Age: 22 — This was one of Winslow’s (rare) healthy seasons. He played 66 games — two fewer than he did the following season. This was his best overall performance, tallying to an 85 PPA. He was a talented player who never stayed healthy long enough to show what he could do. Gotta think (hope?) George will be healthier, though I have to mention George has played in 68 and 48 games respectively in his first two seasons.
- Cole Anthony | 2022-23 | Orlando Magic | Age: 22 — Anthony is basically the little-guy version of George. Tough as nails, all-out effort, plenty of positives, and bit negatives.
- Taurean Prince | 2017-18 | Atlanta Hawks | Age: 23 — Prince’s second season. He played all 82 games, though it was not a harbinger of his future health and availability. The 87 PPA he posted that season was also the best mark of his career.
- Kevin Porter Jr. | 2021-22 | Houston Rockets | Age: 21 — I’m not a big Porter fan, but he’s been reasonably productive, albeit with enough issues that teams seem happy to move on from him. I don’t think that’ll be the case with George. The profile is there, though — talent enough to generate positives, enough judgement issues to produce negatives (hi there, turnovers) that can hurt the team.
- Reggie Jackson | 2013-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Age: 23 — Another maximal effort, maybe a bit nuts, little guy. Jackson spent most of his career as a pain-in-the-neck backup guard who was part of some winning teams.
Some honorable mentions:
- Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs — age 24 season
- Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons — age 21
- Kyle Kuzma, Los Angeles Lakers — age 22
- Caris LeVert, Brooklyn Nets — age 23
My eye test comp was Dillon Brooks, but the closest Brooks season ranks around 260th.
My sense is that The Machine’s comps have the right overall type — competitive, hard-nosed, physical reserves who had value to good teams when they could rein in the fouls and turnovers. I think George is reasonably likely to be better than any of those five turned out to be, though it’s worth a reminder that player development is not linear.
I have the same kinds of neat career arc graphs most stat goobers do, but those are averages. There’s a lot of variation, and things get messy with individuals.
Next through the machine: Trae Young.
