There was a time when an efficient, multidimensional passing game was the nucleus of the Falcons’ identity. It wasn’t actually merely a time. It ended up being nearly a decade, starting in 2011, when Matt Ryan began to blossom as a quarterback and heavy workloads started to wear down Michael Turner. No matter if the Falcons were competing to win the Super Bowl or struggling to stay respectable, they always could count on a passing game led by their franchise great quarterback and a plethora of exceptional
pass catchers.
Times have drastically changed since Ryan was traded to Indianapolis in 2022. There have been four different opening day quarterbacks for Atlanta. A notable shift towards having a more run-centric game plan, given Arthur Smith’s coaching philosophy and the selection of arguably the best current running back in the league, makes it understandable. What isn’t acceptable is the amount of major offensive investments made over the last four years not coalescing into one of the most prolific attacks in the league.
A recent 30-0 loss to a lowly Carolina team will raise serious concerns about the team’s direction, particularly with the development of their young, promising quarterback. How can Michael Penix Jr. remain largely composed and play with impressive command against two incredibly aggressive defensive minds in Todd Bowles and Brian Flores, yet crumble against a Panthers defense where most people would struggle to name five players? Why can’t the offense push the ball downfield? Why is Drake London going through extended stretches of being anonymous?
These are all valid questions. It’s a huge dilemma at a position that has haunted the team for years. The organization can’t afford the quarterback position to be a significant reason for their downfall for a third consecutive season.
Rigidness and Timidness
Execution was emphasized when Penix Jr. responded to questions about the offense’s issues. That’s normally the answer from a player who wants to be accountable for shortcomings and use them as teachable moments. The film session against Carolina should present several teachable moments to guide him forward. With all the reasonable criticism of Zac Robinson’s play calling, an aerial attack can’t function when the quarterback isn’t seeing the field and is stiff in the pocket. Penix Jr. was rushing through his progressions, repeatedly throwing unnecessary checkdowns, and refusing to navigate around the pocket. It all culminated in a humiliating defeat.
Even with excellent pass protection, the conviction wasn’t there in the pocket for a quarterback to succeed. Penix Jr. looked hesitant with his processing. When the pocket occasionally collapsed, he stood like a statue and threw the ball at difficult angles without resetting his feet. Everything he did felt static against a defense that only produced one hit on 38 of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
If he didn’t like what he saw, he wouldn’t attempt to create something out of structure. He would throw contested checkdowns that were immediately neutralized. One resulted in a painful interception, where Penix Jr. rushed through his reads and failed to identify Ray-Ray McCloud on a dig route. That moment exemplified what can happen when a quarterback forces the ball without playing with anticipation while mentally scrambling after his first read isn’t there and not trusting his eyes.
What is even more troubling about Penix Jr. comes from his unwillingness to throw in the intermediate to deep areas of the middle of the field. Kyle Pitts was wide open down the seam on the first drive. Despite receiving ample protection, the former top ten pick threw a wild pass out of bounds intended for London. On the next drive, Darnell Mooney was open on an over route that could have ended up putting the Falcons near the goal line. Penix Jr. opts to throw a checkdown to Charlie Woerner, who is immediately tackled after being used as an extra blocker.
For all the predictable tendencies and formation inflexibility in the offensive scheme, explosive plays were there for the taking. Penix Jr. appeared too rattled to make the necessary reads in what proved to be the worst game of his career in his sixth start.
Adjustments Across the Board
There is plenty of talk about how no wide receiver or tight end on the roster has a receiving touchdown. Some of it is due to circumstances in tough matchups against Tampa Bay and Minnesota. What happened against Carolina was an individual quarterback meltdown and a breakdown in communication with the offensive coordinator. That has led to the decision to move Robinson to the field for Week 4. It’s a move that worked out to some extent in the past for Atlanta, with Dirk Koetter in 2014 and Steve Sarkisian in 2018. Those transitions didn’t lead to lasting positive results, but those respective personnel groups had below-average offensive lines due to certain players declining and struggled to run the ball. The current offensive line has done well adjusting to life without Kaleb McGary. They forced a ferocious Minnesota front into submission by running the ball.
The Falcons are well-equipped to thrive offensively. It will ultimately come down to Penix Jr. bouncing back from the implosion in Carolina and Robinson putting him in better situations. That starts with getting the play call in quicker rather than leaving him with less than ten seconds to work with at the line of scrimmage to make the necessary pre-snap reads. Implementing more looks under center would be beneficial to get defenses off balance. Dave Canales did a terrific job of mixing up formations with condensed sets to bolster a struggling offense and give Bryce Young more high-percentage looks.
Calling a route rub design to convert a fourth down on the opening drive with Tetairoa McMillian looping behind two receivers to break open press coverage is a prime example of how Canales was successful last Sunday. Scheming players open has been close to nonexistent so far in the Falcons’ passing game. The constant usage of the shotgun and pistol formations in Robinson’s offense allows defenses to key on route concepts and fill up the middle of the field.
According to Pro Football Focus, Penix Jr. has only attempted eight passes of ten yards or more to the middle of the field. That shouldn’t be plausible in an offense where London and Pitts should be the primary targets. Both former top ten picks must be more involved in finding soft areas against zone coverage looks and using their big frames to win in contested catch areas. McCloud also proved to be reliable, particularly on third downs, on in-breaking routes in the middle of the field.
With Mooney enduring a tough start to the season, the offense could be more efficient by attacking the middle of the field. That comes with running more play action. That can involve using more condensed looks from running trips with three pass catchers. Both have been severely lacking in how the Falcons are operating offensively.
Far From Broken
One game shouldn’t destroy a season, no matter how excruciating it is. Penix Jr. was largely impressive in his first five starts. While the statistics may look lackluster, his poise against Tampa Bay and Minnesota deserves enormous praise. The Falcons would have been soundly defeated on opening day without his heroics in navigating the pocket and pulling off scoring drives without his top two wide receivers. Outside of a few communication issues in a hostile environment on Sunday night football, Penix Jr. sharply managed the game and didn’t allow a defensive juggernaut to overwhelm him. Both performances hold considerable weight against two playoff teams.
The conundrum stems from schematic issues and playmakers not named Bijan Robinson being involved enough. Opposing defenses shouldn’t dictate how much the Falcons run 11 personnel. The offense needs to be more proactive in establishing an identity through the air. Despite being predictable at times, the ground game has taken over games, running mostly outside zone using its athletic offensive line and solid blockers on the perimeter.
There is a clear identity when running the ball. Zac Robinson needs to find it through the air. Penix Jr. needs to learn from what went wrong last Sunday and regain his confidence in seeing the field, while becoming more comfortable moving around the pocket and making plays out of structure. That will help the Falcons as they enter a daunting three-game stretch.
