The Guardians seemed to be out of the post-season race a few weeks ago when they stood 64-66 on August 25, five games back of a playoff spot. But they have won eight of twelve since then and as other Wild Card teams have floundered, they have climbed back into the race, just a half game back of the Royals and 2.5 games back of the Mariners for the last Wild Card.
Kansas City Royals (73-70) vs. Cleveland Guardians (72-70) at Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Royals: 3.85 runs scored/game (28th in MLB),
3.86 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Guardians: 3.89 runs scored/game (27th), 4.23 runs allowed/game (12th)
The Guardians are hitting just .224 as a team, the worst mark in baseball. Since the All-Star break, they have a team wRC+ of 86, tied with the Cardinals for worst in baseball. José Ramírez is still one of the best players in baseball, and is currently 11th in baseball in fWAR for position players at 5.3. He’s a career .274/.352/.500 with 31 home runs in 173 games against the Royals. Kyle Manzardo is hitting .267/.365/.511 with 10 home runs in 41 games in the second half. Steven Kwan is hitting .355/.412/.419 in September with two three-hit games.
Angel Martinez is hitting just .211/.276/.301 since the All-Star break, and his 64 wRC+ is the fourth-worst in baseball in that time. Daniel Schneeman hits just .185/.267/.292 at home this year. Bo Naylor is hitting just .167/.247/.227 against lefties. Nolan Jones has not drawn a walk in his last 17 games. Austin Hedges is 0-for-9 with three strikeouts in his career against Michael Wacha.
The Guardians are an average defensive club with Daniel Schneeman performing well at second base, but Angel Martinez and Nolan Jones rating negatively in the outfield. Guardians catchers are throwing out 28 percent of basestealing attempts.
Slade Cecconi has a 6.19 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break. He gave up a season-high 11 hits and seven earned runs in 5.1 innings in his last outing against the Red Sox. He has a 5.37 ERA at home, 14th worst of any pitcher with at least 50 innings. Opponents are hitting .321 against his 94 mph four-seamer.
Joey Cantillo has given up just one run in over five innings in each of his last three starts. He pitched a season-high six innings in a win over Boston in his last start. Catillo has a 3.68 ERA in nine starts this year, but has a 4.70 ERA at home. He has a reverse split with lefties hitting better against him – they’re batting .269/.380/.423.
Logan Allen has a 4.98 ERA over the last two years, the 11th-highest among any pitcher with at least 200 innings. He has never beaten the Royals in five starts, with a career 6.26 ERA. Logan Allen has the ninth-highest pop-up rate. Opponents swing the bat against him 44 percent of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in baseball. He has given up 17 runs in 16 innings over his last three starts. Bobby Witt Jr. is 7-for-12 (.583) against him in his career, while Maikel Garcia is 5-for-12 (.417) with a home run.
Gavin Williams has a 12 percent walk rate, highest among all qualified starters. He has a 2.27 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals, giving up four runs in 11 innings in his two starts against them this year, both Guardians losses. He has a 2.23 ERA in seven starts since the start of August. He has a reverse split, with lefties hitting just .147/.263/.291 against him. Opponents are hitting just .105 against his curve with a 33 percent whiff rate.
The Guardians have a bullpen ERA of 3.56, fifth-lowest in baseball, right behind the Royals. They have just 18 blown saves, seventh-fewest in baseball. Cade Smith has taken over closing duties from Emmanel Clase, who his on administrative leave pending a gambling investigation. Smith has been the second-most valuable reliever in baseball with 2.3 fWAR, with the 13th-highest strikeout rate at 33.1 percent. But he has given up seven runs in 8.2 innings over his last 10 games. Kolby Allard has the lowest strikeout rate among relievers at 12.8 percent. lefties are hitting just .132/.233/.237 against Erik Sabrowski. Former Royals pitcher Jakob Junis has given up just three runs in 24.2 innings over his last 19 outings since the start of July.
The Guardians are just 35-33 at home this year, and they’re 33-49 against teams .500 or better, the fourth-worst record in baseball. They are pretty similar to the Royals where the pitching staff is a strength, and scoring runs is a nightly challenge. Cleveland has taken five of nine in the season series so far, but the Royals will need a series win to stay ahead of them in the Wild Card race.
