As of this morning, the NCAA Tournament picture looks like this, based on NPI and conference standings. Please note that projected conference tournament winners are in italics and are based on current in-conference point percentage:
Locks (11): Michigan, Michigan State, North Dakota, Western Michigan, Penn State, Providence, Quinnipiac, Denver, Cornell, Minnesota-Duluth, Dartmouth
Bubble In (3): Wisconsin, Boston College, Augustana
Automatic Qualifiers (2): Minnesota State, Bentley
Bubble Out (1):
UConn
My projected bracket looks like this:
Worcester Regional
- Michigan vs. Bentley
- Penn State vs. Cornell
Loveland Regional
- Western Michigan vs. Boston College
- Denver vs. Wisconsin
Albany Regional
- Michigan State vs. Minnesota State
- Quinnipiac vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Sioux Falls Regional
- North Dakota vs. Augustana
- Providence vs. Dartmouth
Some things to note here:
- The only change I needed to make after running through the teams 1-16 was flipping Penn State and Denver. The committee is not likely to pit No. 5 Penn State and No. 8 Denver against each other in the first round. It means being in the same bracket as Michigan, but you have to beat the best teams to win it all anyway.
- Minnesota State narrowly won the CCHA regular season title to slot in as the conference’s auto-bid for now. At No. 14, Augustana currently holds an at-large bid, but that will evaporate should they fall early on in the conference tournament.
- UConn is the only other team with a realistic chance of gaining an at-large bid. At No. 15, the Huskies will have to win their final two regular season games and make some noise in the Hockey East tournament to get away from the cut line.
- I am locking in Dartmouth and Minnesota-Duluth. Dartmouth is poised to make its first NCAA Tournament since 1980, and Minnesota-Duluth has had a nice resurgence this season after three straight tournament misses.
Key Games This Weekend
No. 12 Wisconsin at No. 5 Penn State– Thursday (7pm on Big Ten Plus) and Friday (7pm on Big Ten Plus)
- The only thing Penn State has left at stake is seeding in the NCAA Tournament, as the Lions are locked into the three seed in the Big Ten Tournament. A split would go a long way toward securing an NCAA Tournament bid for Wisconsin.
No. 13 Boston College at No. 20 UMass- Thursday (7pm on ESPN+)
- Boston College fell to Boston University in the cross-town rivalry last weekend to slip closer to the bubble. This feels like a game the Eagles need to win, especially with Augustana and UConn nipping at their heels.
No. 15 UConn at No. 6 Providence- Friday (4pm on ESPN+)
- UConn, the other Hockey East bubble team, needs a road win against Providence to bolster their chances of gaining an at-large bid.
