The Miami Hurricanes (5-0) will host the Florida State Seminoles (3-3) at Hard Rock on Saturday, October 17th. It’s a night game with a 7pm kickoff on ESPN.
Miami has a 94.2% win expectancy per ESPN, and the Las Vegas sharps have Miami as a three touchdown favorite over the visiting ‘Noles who haven’t won a road game in over two seasons.
The Doppler
The Miami Hurricanes are currently 7th in FBS on 3rd downs converting 52% of their attempts. FSU is 50th in the country converting only 42% of their tries. The ‘Canes
are 32nd in FBS on 4th down converting 67% of the time while FSU is 50th here too converting 62% of the time.
Miami is 70th in FBS in 3rd down defense allowing teams to convert 39% of the time. FSU is 102nd while allowing teams to convert at a 43% clip.
Turnover margin per game is a HUGE predictor of success. Miami is 13th at +1.0 while FSU is 87th at -0.4. Daniels is turning the ball over like crazy while Mensah has yet to turn it over.
The ‘Noles are 38th in FBS at penalty yards per game being flagged for 48 yards. Miami is 120th in FBS while being flagged for 73 yards per game.
FSU’s current kicker, Gabe Panikowski, is perfect on PAT’s and FG’s (6-of-6) while their former kicker, Miami’s Jake Weinberg, is perfect on PAT’s and 5-of-6 on FG’s.
The Film
I’m going to use the Louisville vs. FSU game from October 9th as the film example. Louisville beat FSU 44-20 in front of 50K fans on a Friday night. FSU finished 10-of-22 on money downs while L’ville was 4-of-10. Both offenses clearly struggled when it mattered the most.
FSU committed the lone turnover, an Ashton Daniels interception. Both squads were flagged four times, with FSU having the least yardage called in 24 yards in penalties to Louisville’s 35.
The Cards PK Carson Hilbert missed both a FG and an extra point in their blowout win. Isaac Brown also had a 71-yard kick return so if Miami’s KR game is going to get going- this could be the week (BIG IF).
FSU OFFENSE
Daniels lined up across from the Cards defense and threw a pick and two TD’s, ran in another TD, but averaged only 5.6 yards per pass attempt. FSU suffered through five PBU’s on the night as well.
Daniels was able to find nine different receivers but only four hit double-digit yards per catch marks. Duce Robinson was held to seven yards per catch and their longest completion was for 25 yards.
RB Ousmane Kromah averaged 4.6 yards per carry while RB Quintrevion Wisner was held to just 2.9 YPC. The FSU O-Line allowed four sacks and eight TFL’s.
Above– Play-Action boot. LB frozen on the run action. CB playing inside leverage leaves the WR open outside. Miami will have to clean up their boot rules vs. FSU
Above– Daniels creates once the DE fights inside. Always rush the outside hip. Once the DE commits inside Daniels can work outside. That space creates time. Eventually he just scrambles but he could’ve found a deep shot.
Above– Daniels goes Tebow pass, fakes it, then scrambles. He’s toying with the LB to that side who comes up, bails back, then he runs. Miami needs to play smart- Chase Smith had a great day vs. Clemson and needs another one.
Above– 4th down conversion with the LB in the 1st read window Daniels hits the WR running a Fin route as the #2 threat.
Above– RPO seam TD. The LBs are on the run action, the DB’s forget the slot and if Daniels has any ball placement it’s a much easier TD, TD anyway. Can’t leave a slot this open.
Above– I don’t see Hetherman letting the LBers consistently get this far outside of the box vs. a mobile QB and a pair of backs like FSU’s. Louisville got caught like this a few times.
Above– On 4th and 1 FSU has a motion guy come across on a fly sweep, a direct snap to the RB and Daniels out as a ‘pitch man.’ Daniels freezes the overhang, the WR pulls 2 with him, the kick and wrap works to perfection.
Above– I have no idea what Daniels and Norvell were doing here. There’s 3 defenders over 3 offensive players. That’s a no-go on the screen. They easily could’ve ran the screen and go inside release for a TD. Norvell has ran that since his Memphis OC days but they throw the screen and it’s a stop.
Above– Counter gets BLOWN UP. Ahmad Moten has started to heat up and this could be a huge game for him against FSU’s meh OL.
Above– Daniels throws into this 2-man window with an over/under. Nice pick by the LB. Toure might not be the best guy for the job unless the bye week made him a little more mobile than vs. Clemson.
Above– Now it’s 3 over 1, triple coverage. Over, under, outside… it’s a pick waiting to happen with Daniels.
FSU DEFENSE
Cards QB Lincoln Kienholz averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt while finding only five receivers all night. Louisville only threw the ball 15 times, and dropped back 16 total on the night. Kienholz scored twice on the ground on 4.4 yards per carry.
The ground game should be open for Miami. The Cards rushed for 397 yards on 9.2 yards per carry including FSU’s lone sack on Kienholz. Brown averaged 13.8 yards per carry with two scores; while Marquise Davis and Braxton Jennings averaged 6.2 and 16.3 YPC, respectively. Both also scored on the ground.
The Cards OL allowed one sack and four TFL’s, but when you run the ball 43 times you’ll allow four for a loss.
FSU senior DL Rylan Kennedy logged one sack and two TFL’s while DB KJ Kirkland picked up FSU’s lone PBU.
Above– Mensah has liked hitching up twice before thinking about running. That OODA Loop in his brain needs to fire off one step faster vs. FSU or they will bang him around.
Above– Louisville forgets about 2nd level defenders and Jones is a really good LB with experience. He fills the hole left by the ‘parting of the sea’ OL who shoulder turn vs staying square to look to the 2nd level.
Above– When looking for the fade ball QB’s are evaluating the CB across from their WR. If there’s just one DB to that side you assume you’ve got cover 3 or 1 which either way means my guy vs your guy. If I like my guy more I’m going deep. Here he’s long left (vs. even/leavin) from the snap. Easy fade completion for the Cards.
Above– Kick, wrap, Brown for a 90+ yard TD. FSU has NO LB anywhere around or rotating safety. They’re a mess at times on O, D and K. Who has the home run threat speed for Miami at RB? Girard Pringle.
Above– More kick and wrap. Think Ben Congdon and Elija Lofton here knocking a DE out, wrapping to LB and letting Fletcher and Mallory walk into the end zone.
Above– Toney at “Q” and Mallory at RB. Let Toney run a toss read type play. If the LB runs out like above, keep behind the pulling guard. If the LB bites inside, toss it.
Above– FSU is hard rotating to both the bottom vs the run and the top vs the pass. This is why RPO and even ‘fake’ RPO’s (locked to the run, but keeping the now screen called) work so well. Brown cuts back and there’s no FSU defender for YARDS and YARDS.
FSU KICKING GAME
Above– All we hear about is South Florida speed and yet the fast guy from SFL was allowed to leave to the midwest and Miami has no kick return game to be seen. FSU is playing tag off on KO team vs. closing and finishing on Brown as he goes for 70+ yards.
The Forecast
The Canyonero Key to Victory main theme for Miami over FSU this summer was to “Avoid Self-Implosion.” The three individual keys are:
1- Get the run game going. Brown is an electric back but this was clearly his breakout game. Mark Fletcher struggled against Wake, just like Brown, so this could be that breakout performance vs. an average FSU squad.
2- CREATE TURNOVERS. Miami hasn’t created enough turnovers this season averaging 1.5 per game so far. That’s 33rd in FBS but considering their opponents average ~90 in SP+ offense I’d expect more.
3- Keep your foot on their throat. A year ago Mario Cristobal let off the gas and that just can’t happen again. It’s a rivalry game and anything can happen. Stomp the ‘Noles into the dirt and do not let up.
Score Prediction: Miami by 17. Darian Mensah and the jits should cruise over the FSU defense and the Miami defense should be all over Daniels. I don’t think it gets carried away, but a three score win is probable (Vegas agrees).
