The Big Ten season is upon us!
The Nittany Lions start off their conference schedule at home in a rare Saturday dual, taking on the ranked Scarlet Knights. Rutgers has a veteran team of all ranked wrestlers – if all starters wrestle (their best wrestler, returning NCAA qualifier Joey Olivieri, has been out recently). RU comes in off of two duals against former PSU opponents Oklahoma (loss, 19-14) and Drexel (win, 28-12), and they also have a loss to top ten NC State on the short season.
Rutgers isn’t
the only one coming in with some question marks in their lineup; PSU, too, isn’t 100% set (and as of the writing of this preview, on Thursday night, there’s no official preview posted on the PSU athletics site, so everything is pure conjecture). The Nittany Lions are fresh from the Southern Scuffle, where they won the team title and crowned five champions in Josh Barr, Asher Cunningham, William Henckel, Joe Sealey, and Connor Pierce.
Also competing in Nashville was 133er Aaron Nagao, who made a return to the mat, but had to medically forfeit out of the end of the tournament; his availability for the rest of the season is now in doubt, and the biggest question after whether he’ll return is who will be his replacement if not. The plan all along has been to redshirt returning All American Braeden Davis, but this week in his media availability, head coach Cael Sanderson left open the possibility that the redshirt won’t happen; the other option is true freshman one-time 125 pound wrestler Nate Desmond, whose redshirt also could be pulled.
In better injury news, Barr seems back in full force. He returned for the Journeymen duals and then stormed through the field at the Scuffle – a field that included the #3 wrestler at 197 (Little Rock’s Stephen Little), whom Barr majored en route to his first Big Ten Wrestler of the Week award. Look out, field!
The route to a home Big Ten crown starts this week, and the Knights will be a solid test. But, as with most weeks and this talented squad, it won’t necessarily feel that way after the final bout – and the Lions should leave the mat with the NCAA record of consecutive dual meet victories.
How To Watch
What: #1 Penn State vs #14 Rutgers*
Where: Rec Hall, University Park, PA
When: Saturday, January 10, 4PM EST
Audio: Free (via GoPSUSports)
Video: Big Ten Network
Lineup
125
The lower weights in the NCAA are incredibly competitive this year, and that begins with this weight. Luke is one of the title favorites; returning champ Vincent Robinson is number one for a reason, but Luke likely won’t move in the rankings until February. This bout should be over pretty quickly, with Luke just shy of a tech fall, going for the final three at the buzzer.
Prediction: Lilledahl by major decision
Score: PSU 4, RU 0
133 LBS
Dylan Shawver is a returning Big Ten champion from 2024, but this is Marcus Blaze. And this weight may be the deepest in the NCAAs, especially with Ryan Crookham of Lehigh set to return this week – so even though Marcus feels underranked at #5, that may be where he belongs right now.
Prediction: Blaze by tech fall
Score: PSU 9, RU 0
141 LBS
What are the odds that both teams have question marks at the same weight? I’m anticipating that Parkins gets the nod for Rutgers this week, and he’ll be up against either Desmond or Davis. If a healthy Olivieri takes the mat, I’m not sure this bout would be close (regardless of who steps up for PSU), but absent that, this likely won’t be close. Nate Desmond has the most upside and if he’s the starter against Parkins, he could get the pin in the first four minutes; I’ll split the baby, though, and go safe with this one, predicting the returning PSU All American, who won a secondary tournament last week, gets the nod and the victory.
Prediction: Davis by decision
Score: PSU 12, RU 0
149 LBS
I struggled between predicting a tech fall and a major decision with this one; it really feels like SVN’s year this year, and there’s no one stopping him, even another ranked wrestler. I decided to pick the extra point, because I’m giving Shayne an extra point for wrestling with such joy all the time.
Prediction: Van Ness by tech fall
Score: PSU 17, RU 0
157 LBS
It used to be rarer for true freshmen to speak to the media at Penn State, but with the calibre of wrestler that the coaching staff has pulled in, that has changed. So far, Duke has met with the media twice already this season, and he’ll preface that this week with some more fireworks. He’s already up to #4, where he most likely will stay until February regardless of what else he does on the mat.
Prediction: Duke by pin
Score: PSU 23, RU 0
165 LBS
Once again, I will be predicting a tech fall for Mitchell Mesenbrink. This is the easiest weight to predict, similar to when Zain Retherford was the Hodge favorite in this lineup.
Prediction: Mesenbrink by tech fall
Score: PSU 28, RU 0
174 LBS
For some reason, Pinto gives me pause on this one. He’s a dangerous wrestler who qualified for the NCAAs three times at Nebraska before transferring to Rutgers, and how Levi handles him will tell me whether he’s truly a step above the rest of the competition as many in wrestling media portend. If he is, this could be over quickly – but because of this aforementioned pause, I expect this to be within a takedown until late in the match, with Haines getting a counter to put the bout out of reach.
Prediction: Levi by decision
Score: PSU 31, RU 0
184 LBS
I’m never sure how to pronounce this Rutgers wrestler’s last name, since Byers pronounces it very much not how I’d expect. That’s about all I have to say about this bout; I’m honestly not sure what to expect, though I do think PSU’s transfer will take the bout. But it likely will be incredibly frustrating for Welsh, who will win late.
Prediction: Welsh by decision
Score: PSU 34, RU 0
197 LBS
Josh Barr is back, baby! I know Cotton is a good wrestler, but I’ve got a feeling about Barr tonight. His backup majored Oklahoma’s Parker, who majored Remy Cotton. I know the transitive property doesn’t work in sports, but I’d be very surprised if this lasts the whole 7 minutes.
Prediction: Barr by pin
Score: PSU 40, RU 0
285 LBS
He hasn’t wrestled in a few weeks, but Cole Mirasola fell down in the rankings anyway, still PSU’s lowest ranked grappler (as of now). He has the potential to win bonus here, but I think he falls just short – coming out of the gate with a solid takedown, but finishing just shy of bonus.
Prediction: Cole by decision
Score: PSU 43, RU 0
Overall score prediction: Penn State 43, Rutgers 0
*The Penn State athletic department, in its official capacity, uses Intermat’s Tournament Power Index in all its match literature; I’m using Intermat’s Dual Meet Rankings because this happens to be a dual. Penn State is #1 in both rankings; Rutgers is #14 in the Dual rankings, and #19 in the Tournament rankings.
