It’s no secret. The Phillies’ outfield over the last two years has largely been a dumpster fire.
Last year, Phils’ outfielders finished with a collective 3.5 fWAR, tied for 22nd, with a .710 OPS that was
18th. In ‘24, their .692 OPS was also 18th, with a 3.8 fWAR that was, wait for it, 22nd. Ever since Kyle Schwarber vacated left field for a full-time DH role, offense has been difficult to find.
Brandon Marsh has been, by far, the team’s best player over the last two seasons, totaling 4.7 fWAR over that time. Johan Rojas (1.5) and Harrison Bader (1.2) are the only other two outfielders with more than one win above replacement, and Rojas barely played for the Phils last season and Bader was here for two months. Nick Castellanos had some occasional bursts, but was, according to WAR, the team’s worst outfielder, with a nauseating mix of Max Kepler, David Dahl, Cristian Pache, Cal Stevenson, Weston Wilson, Austin Hays and Whit Merrifield simply taking up space.
So it’s no surprise Dave Dombrowski is talking about the need to improve the outfield at the GM Meetings taking place in Las Vegas. It is three positions on the field to which the Phils have not been able to find any answers. And it may be difficult to find offense in the outfield this winter, too. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb noted…
Last season, there were only 26 players who hit right-handed, played at least 60 percent of their games in the outfield, and accrued 400 plate appearances. That was the fewest in a non-shortened MLB season since 1968. The league had 20 teams then.
Which brings us to Justin Crawford, the Phillies’ consensus No. 3 prospect, a left-handed hitting singles hitter who Dombrowski is penciling into a starting spot in the 2026 outfield (quote via Gelb’s article).
“In my mind, Crawford has a real strong chance to be with our club,” Dombrowski said. “We’re giving him that opportunity to be with our club. We think he can play center field. Will that be our best with him in center? He’s never played right, so if it’s not center, he would have to play left. Is that our best setup as we go forward? I don’t know that. It’s very dependent, but we feel very comfortable if we said, ‘OK, you’re our center fielder.’ If that were the best (way), he would be fine to do that.”
Over the course of the last two years, the Phillies’ approach to Crawford has been perplexing. As one of the team’s top prospects, they have largely refused to include him in trade proposals, although it’s likely he was more available than Aidan Miller or Andrew Painter. But, even with great needs in the outfield last year, Crawford remained in AAA all season, where he put up a .334/.411/.452 slash line with 23 doubles, four triples and seven home runs.
Crawford has notably had one of the highest ground ball rates during his minor league career. Last year, he hit the ball hard, but put it on the ground at a 59.4% clip. Among 277 players with at least 300 PAs in the Majors last year, Crawford’s 59.4% ground ball rate would have been tied with Chandler Simpson of the Rays for second-highest. Jake Mangum, also of the Rays, was first.
Mangum hit .296/.330/.368 last year with a 95 wRC+. Simpson hit .295/.326/.345 last year with an 88 wRC+.
Those are fine offensive numbers for a No. 9 hole hitter, which is almost certainly where Crawford would hit in the Phillies’ lineup next season. They would also be fine if he played a high level center field. A 95 wRC+ would rank tied for 17th among center fielders last season with at least 300 plate appearances.
However, most observers believe Crawford to be a below-par defensive center fielder, and that his skills are more suited to playing left field. Among 43 left fielders with at least 300 PAs, a 95 wRC+ would have ranked tied for 32nd.
If Crawford cannot play center field at a high level, it’s difficult to imagine the Phillies’ 2026 outfield being much more productive than those in 2024 and ‘25, unless they surprise everyone by signing Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, or trading for someone like Jo Adell or Taylor Ward, both of which come with their own set of issues.
And yet, the Phillies have to play Crawford in 2026. They must know what he can do, and can’t do, at the big league level. They have to see if Kevin Long can help him elevate the ball more at the big league level, and they have to see if their coaching staff can aid him in becoming a better defender in center.
Even with Crawford earmarked for one of the outfield spots, Dombrowski still must operate with the sole purpose of finding better bats. It’s a tricky puzzle to figure out, and there aren’t many pieces available.
Improvement from Crawford in some key areas could make all the difference.
