Addison Barger played in 69 games for the Blue Jays last year. It wasn’t totally successful, hitting .197/.250/.351 with 7 home runs.
Before the season, he was number three on our top prospect list. Tom
wrote:
Barger is listed at 6’0” and 210lbs, and looks as physical as that suggests. He’s added over 50lbs since he was drafted, and it mostly looks to be muscle. Combined with a swing that features fierce rotation, he produces exit velocities that are solidly above MLB average and plus at his best. He adjusted his swing in 2023 to trim his pop-up rate and make a little more contact at the cost of some fly balls, but he should still produce significant power numbers in MLB. He has a good approach, but it’s not a contact oriented swing and he’ll likely strike out a fair bit at the top level.
He’s an average runner, but probably too big now to handle short except as a fill-in. His actions aren’t great at third either, and while it’s possible he can refine them enough to stick there, he’ll likely spend some time in right field. His plus arm could make him a defensive asset there.
Barger brings enough power and defensive versatility to at least carve out a role as a corner utility guy who can handle second or even short in a pinch. That he’s left handed helps, as he could spell several players on the Jays’ roster and possibly work himself into being the bigger half of a platoon. His ceiling is as a three-true-outcomes slugger who bashes his way to an everyday job in right or at third. He’ll almost certainly spend some time in Toronto this summer, so we’ll find out how he holds up against MLB pitching.
We got a good chance to look at him this year:
| Age | WAR | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | GIDP | HBP | SF | IBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1.2 | 135 | 502 | 460 | 61 | 112 | 32 | 1 | 21 | 74 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 121 | .243 | .301 | .454 | .756 | 105 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 Yr | 1.6 | 204 | 727 | 668 | 81 | 153 | 43 | 1 | 28 | 102 | 6 | 1 | 50 | 181 | .229 | .286 | .422 | .708 | 94 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 162 | 1.3 | 162 | 577 | 530 | 64 | 122 | 34 | 1 | 22 | 81 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 144 | .229 | .286 | .422 | .708 | 94 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Addison had a 1.2 bWAR and a 2.2 fWAR giving him a value of $17.6 million to the Jays.
He had a .322 wOBA and a 107 wRC+.
Addison’s walk rate was 7.2% (up from 6.2 last year), and his strikeout rate was 24.1% (down from 26.7 last year).
His line-drive rate was the same as last year’s at 18.2% (down from 21.5), ground ball rate was 42.5% (about the same as last year’s 42.3) and fly-ball rate 39.3% (up from 36.2 last year). His fly balls were leaving the park 15.7% of the time (up from 13.0).
Barger’s soft contact was way down (17.0% from 21.5), and hard contact was up (40.2% from 35.6).
His BABIP was way up (.284 from .238).
Addison was much better vs. RHP (.249/.308/.480) than LHP (.217/.270/.337). He’s going to have close up that gap some if he wants to get out of the platoon role.
He was better at home (.256/.321/.480) than on the road (.232/.282/.429).
With RISP, he hit .295/.353/.508.
He was much better in the first half (.261/.317/.506) than the second half (.223/.284/.395).
Addison by month:
- April: .185/.214-.296 with no home runs, 1 walk and 4 strikeouts in 10 games.
- May: .292/.370/.517 with 4 home runs, 10 walks and 22 strikeouts in 27 games.
- June: .239/.287/.489 with 5 home runs, 6 walks and 29 strikeouts in 23 games.
- July: .284/.327/.568 with 6 home runs, 5 walks and 27 strikeouts in 26 games.
- August: .211/.250/.333 with 3 home runs, 5 walks and 22 strikeouts in 25 games.
- September: .197/.293/.394 with 3 home runs, 9 walks and 17 strikeouts in 24 games
He did seem to tire those last couple of months, but then he came back strong in the playoffs.
Defensively, he played two positions.
91 games at third base. He made 6 errors (2 fielding, 4 throwing) for a .966 FA (right at the league average .964). Outs Above Average has him at a 0 (league average).
57 games in right field. He made 3 errors for a .970 FA (league average .987). Outs above average has him at a -4.
If he’s going to play a lot of right field field, he has some work to do.
As a baserunner FanGraphs has him at a -0.2 runs compared to the average baserunner. He had 4 steal, caught once.
Where Addison hit in the batting order:
- 2nd: 24 starts, hitting .219-.290/.396.
- 3rd: 8 starts, hitting .188/.278/.500.
- 4th: 24 starts, hitting ..247/.300/.452.
- 5th: 26 starts, hitting .282/.321/.583.
- 6th: 20 starts, hitting .243/.316/.386.
- 7th: 14 starts, hitting .192/.250/.365.
- 8th: 1 start, hitting .000/.000/.000.
The Jays were 72-45 in Addison’s starts.
His longest hitting streak was 6 games, longest on base streak 18 games.
The longest he went without a home run was 18 games.
The longest hitless streak was 5 games.
Favourite team to face? He hit .304/.360/.826 vs. the A’s.
Least favourite? He hit .125/.176/.125 in 5 games against the Guardians.
Times facing a starter:
- 1st: .189/.231/.395
- 2nd: .206/.270/.373.
- 3rd: .283/.377/.550
- He had 8 PA against a pitcher his fourth time through, going 0 for 2.
Swinging at the first pitch of an at bat he hit .391/.400/.750 with 6 home runs.
Addison had a great run in the playoffs:
| Series | Opp | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALDS | NYY | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .333 | .333 | .417 | .750 |
| ALCS | SEA | 7 | 28 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | .261 | .393 | .565 | .958 |
| WS | LAD | 7 | 28 | 25 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | .480 | .536 | .680 | 1.216 |
| 1 Yr | 1 Yr | 17 | 68 | 60 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | .367 | .441 | .583 | 1.025 |
He had a good season. It would have looked better if you erased the last two months. At the end of July he was hiting .264/.319/.505, but it was a good season and a huge step up from last year. However, he played more baseball than he had in the past. I’d expect he won’t fall off so much next year.
Addison hit the ball hard. Baseball Savage has him in the 91st percentile for hard hit percentage and 93rd percentile for bat speed.
And, of course,, he was 99th percentile for arm strength. He made some fantastic throws from right field and watching his throw from third base made me afraid for Vlad’s hand.
I like him better at third base. He makes more throws playing third than right.
Barger does seem to be the definition of a three true outcome hitter. Walks, strikeouts and homers make up 39% of his plate appearances.
I hope for another good season from him next year and for the team to offer him a long-term contract. I know that the last part is unlikely to happen, but I’m going to expect the first part. Addison seems very likable, he gained points with me for turning down the Red Sox paraphernalia from David Ortiz, I’m looking forward to following his career.
