After a disappointing 8-6 loss at the hands of Italy on Tuesday night, Team USA is now on the brink of elimination, and their destiny is now out of their hands.
“It’s out of our control,” Team USA captain Aaron Judge said. “Now we just need a little luck, and we’ll see what happens.”
The only remaining game in Pool B is between Italy and Mexico, who face off Wednesday night at 6 p.m. CT at Daikin Park. That one will be televised on FS1.
So, what do the Americans need to happen to get in? There are basically
two scenarios.
The easiest scenario is for Italy to beat Mexico. A win by Italy would put them at 4-0 in pool play, making them the Pool B winner. That would also mean the USA would be the runner-up at 3-1 as Mexico would be 2-2 and fail to advance.
The other scenario is a bit more complicated.
If Mexico beats Italy, then all three of the USA, Mexico, and Italy would be 3-1, and each team would be 1-1 against the others. With head-to-head record out of consideration, the next tiebreaker is runs allowed in common games.
In the USA’s games against Italy and Mexico, they allowed a total of 11 runs over 54 defensive outs, which works out to a .2037 runs allowed rate.
Mexico allowed five runs against the USA over 24 outs, giving them a .2083 runs allowed rate, while Italy allowed six runs against the USA over 27 outs, giving them a .2222 runs allowed rate. Given that Mexico is ahead of Italy, and the only scenario in which Mexico advances is with a win over Italy, Mexico is guaranteed to advance with a win over Italy. Why? Because there’s no scenario in which Mexico wins without scoring more than Italy. That’s just common sense.
So, if Mexico takes down Italy, that means it’ll come down to Italy or the USA as the other team to advance. In order for Team USA to advance in that scenario, they’d need Italy to give up five or more runs and lose in a nine-inning game; Italy would advance by giving up four or fewer runs, even in a loss.
An extra-inning game would alter the math, but let’s not get into over-predicting.
In summary, the two ways for Team USA to advance to the quarterfinals are as follows:
- Italy wins; Italy and USA advance
- Mexico wins and Italy allows five or more runs (again, in a nine-inning game); Mexico and USA advance
Not out of the question, but I’m sure Mark DeRosa, Judge, and Co. didn’t expect to be in this position. We’ll see what happens.
