Arsenal head north to take on Nottingham Forest on Sunday in the Premier League ahead of a marquee Champions League match at Bayern Munich next week.
The Gunners have enjoyed their return to action following the first international break. It hasn’t been smooth sailing, but they have certainly gotten back to business since their 0-3 loss at Brighton. A nervier-than-it-needed-to-be, come-from behind win against Leeds was followed up by a dominant 3-0 win against Lille in the CL where Mikel Arteta’s
side looked confident and in control from start to finish.
You can’t quantify or measure momentum, but you can sure as hell sense it. If there’s a criticism to be laid upon the Gunners so far this season, it is that they haven’t taken matches by the scruff and imposed themselves consistently when the opportunities present themselves. There have been plenty of moments of brilliance, but it hasn’t felt like they have had that “oh, wait, we’re the champions of England” epiphany just yet.
With that being said, you can’t argue with the results. Eight wins from nine matches is excellent. Clearly, they are efficient and get the job done. Teams have brought their best against the defending title holders, which was always going to be the case. The target on their backs has never been bigger, and they have done what they needed to take care of business. But would it kill them to be just a little more assertive and stamp their names on matches?
Heading to Forest on the heels of their first one-sided performance in a while is going to be a test of their ability to seize momentum. With a big CL match away to Bayern Munich on deck, building on Wednesday’s performance and capitalizing on the opportunity is paramount. Can they do it? That’s the question.
Know the Enemy
Domestic Record: 1W-2D-3L (15th)
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest all-time record: 56W-24D-29L
Incomings: Liam Delap (Chelsea), Ousmane Diomande (Sporting), Daniel Muñonz (Crystal Palace), Gustavo Sá (Famalicão), Xaver Schlager (Leipzig), Steven Benda (Fulham)
Departures: Elliot Anderson (Manchester City), Taiwo Awoniyi (Coventry), David Carmo (Olympiacos), Jota Silva (Olympiacos), Omar Richards (Aris Saloniki), Stefan Ortega (Olympiacos), Angus Gunn (San Jose Earthquakes)
Injuries & Suspensions: Igor Jesus (calf), Nicolo Savona (knee), Nikola Milenkovic (knee), Morgan Gibbs-White (knock)
The Tricky Trees made headlines for all of the wrong reasons last season. Between their megalomaniacal owner publicly inserting himself into the Morgan Gibbs-White transfer saga, the end of the disastrous tenure of former Arsenal Head of Football Operations Edu, and enduring a coaching carousel of four (!) different managers, the product on the pitch felt like a footnote compared to the drama that permeated the club, and the results reflected that as they tumbled to a 16th place finish on the heels of a 7th place finish the season prior.
The hiring of former Crystal Palace manager Oliver Glasner over the summer looked a shrewd bit of business by Forest as they looked to right their reeling ship. After stamping his name in the Palace history books by leading the Eagles to an FA Cup in 2024/25 and a Conference League title in 25/26, his decision to part ways with the London club at the end of last season was made all the more perplexing when he agreed to manage Forest, who finished one spot below Palace and only 5 points clear of relegation.
Like too many managers before him, his Forest tenure has been underwhelming so far. Through six Premier League matches, they have struggled to secure results with one win to their name, while their Carabao Cup campaign ended swiftly after a third round loss to Leeds in August. The Elliot Anderson-sized hole in their midfield has been hard to fill after the England international left for sportswashing mega-cheats Manchester City over the summer, but that was always going to be the case.
Their early woes aren’t nearly as bad as they look. No team in the league has had as much bad luck in front of goal as they have, as evidenced by 5 goals scored from an xG of 10.30. Their finishing woes are not for lack of trying; they’ve taken the third most shots in the league (106) while also having the joint most shots hit the post (6). The only team with a worse conversion rate have been chronic underachievers Spurs. According to Opta’s expected league table, they are the season’s top under-performer so far, with the stat house having them theoretically 12 spots higher in third place.
Their defensive returns have been equally as frustrating. They have faced only one shot (65) more than Arsenal, who have given up a league-low 64, while allowing only 22 shots on target, which is third-best in the PL and only three more than the Gunners. They have allowed a respectable 8 goals, but their inability to finish their dinner in the attack has undercut an otherwise solid defense.
The availability of talisman Gibbs-White could be a potential problem for both sides. He suffered a muscular injury last week in Forest’s 1-3 defeat at Crystal Palace with his fitness for Sunday uncertain. Glasner’s pre-match comments seem to indicate that his injury isn’t serious and that he has a decent chance of making the match-day squad. With attacker Igor Jesus already out, Glasner may be forced to take a gamble on a not-fully-fit Gibbs-White, and for good reason. He is one of the league’s top facilitators so far, with the second most chances created (17), most big chances created (7), and most expected assists (1.87).
Nottingham Forest are a team that is due a course correction on both ends of the pitch. Hopefully, that begins after Sunday.
How Forest Can Win
Where they will look to make a difference against Arsenal will be in the air and shooting from distance. They have won 52.8% of their aerial duels and have the second-most attempted headers with 20, bolstered by Morgan Gibbs-White and Neco Williams providing the second and third-most successful crosses across the Prem this season. Their penchant for long shots could trouble David Raya and the Gunners’ defense with over 40 shots from outside the box this season. Arsenal have struggled with long shots, having conceded 40% of their goals from distance. If they take them early and often, they could potentially find some success on the score sheet.
How Arsenal Can Win
Score, and score early. Simple, right?
Arsenal’s biggest issue this season has been their slow starts. In eight matches across all competitions, the Gunners have scored a first-half goal in only 3 of them, with 5 of their 18 goals coming before halftime. They have also fallen behind in three of their last four Premier League matches before coming from behind to win two. Arsenal are fortunate in that their depth and overall quality gives them an edge as games wear on, but leaving it late and having to claw out of deficits is an awful trait to sustain for player and fan health alike.
The last two matches between the Gunners and Forest at the City Ground have ended in goalless draws, and the Gunners have won just once in their last six visits. Getting off the mark early has to be a priority if they want to leave with all 3 points and keep pace with Manchester City.
For Arsenal’s injuries, suspensions, & predicted lineups, make sure to check out our article here.
WHO: Arsenal at Nottingham Forest
WHAT: Premier League match day 7
WHEN: Sunday, October 18th, 11:30am EST/8:30am PST/4:30pm GMT
WHERE: The City Ground, Nottingham
HOW TO WATCH: Streaming on the Peacock app
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