Happy Monday, everyone. Alabama fans should be terrified this week, with only three games left before watching the poor Crimson Tide face off against unbeaten, Big Ten champion, top ranked and unbeatable Indiana. The game is likely to be played in wet conditions.
It’s not looking like too heavy of a storm, but some time after the clock chimes in the new year, light rain is expected to move in, and it will get heavier during New Year’s Day, with likely a half to 1 inch expected in this storm, said
NWS Meteorologist David Gomberg.
One weather model shows the rain window lasting between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., with a good chance of raining on the Rose Bowl Game, which begins earlier, at 1 p.m.
“I think it’s safe to say, there’s a pretty decent chance of some rain during the parade and the Rose Bowl,” Gomberg said. “The question is how much.”
To be frank, the rain is the least of Alabama’s worries. Their inability to rush the passer will certainly doom them.
“Bama can’t rush the passer,” Schwartz said. “It’s a big problem. They can’t hit the passer. That doesn’t fare well against Indiana’s offense. …If you let them do what they want, RPO game, play-action pass, with those wide receivers, they’re hard to cover.”
Mendoza just finished off the season winning the Heisman Trophy award. He is widely expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
On the season, Mendoza has completed 71.5 percent of his pass attempts for 2,980 yards, 33 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He has also picked up 240 yards and scored six touchdowns on the ground.
Alabama was able to sack Oklahoma QB John Mateer only five times in the last game, so this concern is warranted. LT Overton will return but can only do so much by himself.
And, David Pollack reminds us that Alabama just can’t match Indiana physically.
SBNation’s Indiana site points out that Alabama’s defense will need a big day, because 13 points is the ceiling for the Tide.
While Nick Saban got his rings on the back of a series of NFL running backs, DeBoer’s Alabama has not been nearly as dominant on the ground. This year, Alabama is averaging under 110 yards per contest on the ground, which would be good for 16th overall in the Big Ten, ahead of only Maryland and Minnesota.
Indiana saw five teams this season (Maryland, Illinois, Purdue, UCLA, and Michigan State) that averaged fewer than 150 yards on the ground. None of them scored more than 13 points.
An old friend who I think you’ll recognize has some more daunting analysis, with math involved.
You’ve seen them all week, haven’t you? The hot takes on your screen and in your ears?
“They (IU) are much more physical than them (Bama). Better coached, smarter, tougher, and execute better.”
“Am I crazy for thinking Indiana beats Alabama by 14 points?”
“Minus-three yards. Soft. Lucky. Frauds.”
To make matters even worse, Indiana is a Team of Destiny, set to break the mold of national championship rosters stocked with blue chips.
Every championship team since 2011 was above that 50% threshold. Michigan’s 2023 team came close to that line at 54%. So did Clemson in 2016 at 52%. Both beat Alabama enroute to the crown.
Ohio State won it last year at 90%.
Alabama and the Buckeyes tied atop this year’s ratio at 89%.
Indiana clearly came nowhere close with just seven 4-star prospects.
So, the Hoosiers would be breaking the mold and more than a few brains if they finish the job.
Doing so would mean going through the prototype of the previous generation’s model for success.
Indiana defied every other norm and its non-existent history path to Pasadena so continue to doubt the Hoosiers at your own peril.
Keon Sabb knows that Alabama will need to force multiple turnovers to even have a chance at the upset, and he wants to try.
“Every game, we feel like we have a[n] opportunity to take the ball off those guys,” Sabb said. “They did a really good job taking care of the ball, so we’ll just have to do our part… I feel like we have good players. I feel like we can take the ball off them. Especially tackles and stuff like that. Being able to punch on the ball with the ball carriers.”
Wommack sees that mentality in his defense’s safeties. Hubbard, a junior, has it too. His four interceptions lead the Crimson Tide, and he’s tied with Wolf linebacker Yhonzae Pierre for the team high in forced fumbles (three). Indiana (13-0) has only surrendered eight turnovers all season long. Six of those eight are interceptions thrown by Mendoza, who turned the football over in five of six games from Sept. 27 through Nov. 8.
Former Indiana center Hunter Littlejohn offers a little bit of hope that Kalen DeBoer might muster up enough meanness to compete with Curt Cignetti.
DeBoer transformed a unit that ranked No. 88 in scoring in 2018 into No. 42 in 2019. Before November, only No. 6 Ohio State held the Hoosiers under 30 points.
“After the first few games of the season, I think everybody had all the trust in the world in him, Littlejohn said, “because everything that he said would work, worked.”
Littlejohn said DeBoer’s strength was his ability to simplify complicated concepts. But anytime he had to repeat himself …
“It was never a pleasant scenario,” Littlejohn said.
Oh?
“What the national media keeps saying that I could not disagree with more is that he had a sense of softness to him,” Littlejohn said. “I’ve seen him get angry a time or two. It’s not pleasant.”
If Alabama does manage to find a way to compete in the Rose Bowl, trainer Jeff Allen and staff will have been a key reason.
The structure Allen has built is unique. A few years ago, he noticed they were having too many conversations about who would be tending to which specific players. The last thing he wanted, he said, was “some player not knowing who’s taking care of them.” So, Allen decided, “Let’s create a football coaching model and let’s apply it in the medical care.”
Jakob Grieff coordinates the offense along with assistant Zarien Hood; Paige Hudson coordinates the defense along with assistant McKennah Sigler; and Rob Sun coordinates special teams.
The specialization creates efficiency.
“I don’t know that people really fully appreciate the thought that goes into that Saturday-to-Saturday model,” he said. “We start as soon as the game is over — really we’re keeping track of what we’re getting during the game and then what are we going to do with that particular player post-game, right then. That’s going to give us a chance to get them better before the next Saturday.
“You have to think that way because every second is going to matter in this league in terms of turning a player around from from one Saturday to the next.”
Last, Derrick Henry hasn’t had his best season, but he put up another Hall of Fame level performance this weekend.
The Ravens beat the Packers 41-24 at Lambeau Field, overcoming Malik Willis’ huge game in place of Jordan Love for Green Bay. They were led by Derrick Henry, who had a career-high 36 carries for 216 yards and four touchdowns. It was Henry’s seventh 200-yard rushing game, setting the NFL record that he had shared with Adrian Peterson and O.J. Simpson. He also moved up the all-time rushing yards list to 10th with 12,892 yards, surpassing Tony Dorsett
“It’s one of the greatest performances I’ve ever seen,” head coach John Harbaugh said postgame. “It was hard downhill running, but also a lot of make [defenders] miss.”
Said Huntley: “When he touched that ball, I was like, ‘Yeah, they not ready. They not ready.’ He ran straight downhill.”
Those second level defenders struggled to get out of bed the next day.
That’s about it for today. Have a great week.
Roll Tide.
