The Miami Hurricanes (8-2) are taking only their third road trip and second outside of Florida as they head to Blacksburg, VA to face the struggling Virginia Tech Hokies (3-7). The Hurricanes and Hokies will kickoff at noon on ESPN.
The ‘Canes are a 90.2% favorite over the Hokies per ESPN. Miami is a double-digit favorite over their ACC rival. Miami has a 26-15 lead in the all-time series with a four game winning streak heading into the weekend.
The Doppler
Per Bill Connelly’s SP+, the Hurricanes are 10th overall
and the Hokies are 95th in FBS. Miami has the 17th ranked offense, 12th ranked defense, and 20th ranked kicking game. VT has the 88th ranked offense, 89th ranked defense, and 91st ranked kicking game.
On money downs, the ‘Canes are 26th on 3rd down offense at 45% and 39th on 4th down at 60%. The Hokies are 46th on 3rd down at 42% and 114th on 4th down at 40%.
On defense the ‘Canes are holding teams 12th in the country in holding teams on 3rd down at 31% while VT is 114th at 44%.
Miami is 22nd in turnover margin per game with a +0.7 average while the Hokies are 116th at -0.7.
The ‘Canes are 118th in penalty yards allowed per game with 65, while VT is 117th while being flagged for 64 yards per game.
Va. Tech does have a solid returner in P.J. Prioleau. Prioleau averages 20.7 yards per kick return. PK John Love has missed four FG’s this season. They allow big returns but they also block punts.
The Film
We’re going to take a look at the Louisville and VT game from November 1st where the Cardinals beat the Hokies 28-16. The Cards finished 4-of-12 on money downs and the Hokies finished 4-of-17. L’ville had the only turnover lost with an interception. The Cards just edged the Hokies in penalty yards with 52 compared to 46 in flags.
In the kicking game- no one attempted a FG from either side. The Hokies allowed Caullin Lacy to pick up 33 on a kick return and to averaged 35.3 yards on three punt returns. Prioleau picked up 23 yards on one kick return and 24 yards on his lone punt return. This could be a game where Keelan Marion finally houses a KR and Malachi Toney will be a threat on punts once again. However, VT did BLOCK A PUNT against UofL so be on the lookout.
VA. TECH OFFENSE
QB Kyron Drones was shut DOWN by the Cards as a passer with 3.2 yards per attempt but did throw a TD without an INT. Drones however was great on the ground averaging 6.1 yards per carry with another score.
The rest of the VT backs were held under 3.5 yards per carry and without a touchdown. Drones is a one man show right now for the Hokies.
Through the air Drones found six skill guys with a reception and two averaged double-digit yards per catch. The Hokies were sacked once and allowed three TFL’s.
Above– Drones is going to be a beast to take down. Unlike Jennings and Bailey who are more finesse runners, Drones is a powerhouse. It’s counter follow here with a kick on the DE, a wrap to the LB, and a follow by the back off the fake.
Above– Use motion to confuse the eyes. I’ve talked about the OODA Loop for years. A little orbit motion return mixed with a split flow look from a TE, and a read option mesh. That’s a lot for the eyes and brain to work out for the defense.
Above- Tacklers: MOVE YOUR FEET. The CFB ‘26 dive button doesn’t work in real life (and honestly not there, either). But you can see the defenders out wide in the rectangle drawing two defenders away from the ball.
Above– I’m not sure why L’ville put 1 over 2 WR’s but they did and that’s an easy throw read for Drones.
Above– VT might be bad, but they aren’t soft. Franklin has a lot to work with and he knows that because of his relationship with Brent Pry.
Above- DT Justin Scott has started to pick up steam on the season and he’ll be able to make plays 1-on-1 against VT.
Above– Read option with the TE going with the RB not the QB. A nice wrinkle from the OC. Drones is reading the DE and the LBs are sucked in by the RB/TE flow to the field.
Above– Drones gets the defender to hesitate and slip as he pulls and works for a big gain here. Play your responsibilities.
Above– Drones powers through this for a 1st down. Again, VT isn’t soft and Drones is playing for a new HC at VT, or a transfer portal check somewhere else. He’s not giving up on the season especially in a rematch against the ‘Canes.
VA. TECH DEFENSE
The Hokies dominated QB Miller Moss holding him to 4.9 yards per pass attempt with one TD and one INT.
The ground game for the Cards was really cooking. Isaac Brown averaged 8.1 yards per carry with one TD and Keyjuan Brown averaged 7.8 yards per touch with two scores of his own.
Moss found six different receivers with not one averaging double-digit yards per catch. If Miami wants to win this one they have to focus on ground and pound.
VT did not sack Moss but did pick up five TFL’s and five PBU’s.
Above– Everyone loves counter. Moss isn’t a run threat so they’re reading an overhang on an RPO instead. It’s a kick out on the DE, and a wrap to the ILB.
Above– That look creates a 2-way go. One thing RB’s have to remember is that they need to read their blocker’s butt. If his butt is straight back you can choose. If it’s to the field– cut inside it. If it’s to the boundary– cut outside.
Above– If Beck is going to force these throws VT will jump it and pick him off. This can easily become another middling Stanford type of game if he forces bad looks.
Above– This is similar to the Bell/Beck play against NCSU. The OT is taught to open and ride this rusher up field. The QB has to be smart and step up and keep his eyes downfield. Moss does step up, thinks about throwing, and smartly keeps for a 1st down.
Above– Moss gets sacked here and it makes no sense. He’s looking at that defender on the Fin route (3-5 yard in). He can easily flip and throw the slide but doesn’t and gets sacked.
Above– Creating a big hole for the back is great but if the OT and OG to the play both completely turn their shoulders no one can come off a combo and work to the LB. That’s the crux of back-turn handoffs (no post-snap RPO) and shoulder turn blocks. The LB shoots the gap and blows this up.
Above- Louisville tagged a post on shallow cross (below).
Above– As the S jumps the dig the post comes wide open where he vacated.
Above– That Marty Brown spin move works here vs. VT but look where the Cards RB has the ball: HIGH AND TIGHT, not low and loose.
Above- Motion, split flow, read option… all things that have worked for both teams to keep the defense honest.
Above– As you can see with all the defenders spread out covering motion guys, slide route flows and the QB… the middle of the box is clear.
The Forecast
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme for Miami over VT from the summer was to keep your head down and drive. The individual keys are:
1- Contain Drones. Kyron Drones is having a solid season. Drones has 16 passing TD’s with seven INT’s and nine rushing TD’s. Miami has done a solid job against the rushing part of rushing QB’s (Kevin Jennings, Thomas Castellanos). Hetherman needs to keep up the good work and dominate the run game and force Drones to beat them with his arm like they did to CJ Bailey, and we saw how that turned out.
2- Get the run game going. Louisville hit 235 yards against VT on the ground. Miami needs to keep Pringle and Brown going and get the run game working. Championships are won with QB play (don’t screw it up) and defense. One way to avoid the QB screwing up is to take pressure off him with a solid run game.
3- Can we see a kick return for a TD?! I’ll take a punt, kick… blocked punt… anything that shows the kicking game is elite instead of present. Dominate the kicking game like in the old days, please. Oh and don’t let the Hokies block a punt like they did against the Cards.
Forecast: Miami by 10. Virginia Tech isn’t good. They might get a shot in the arm from this James Franklin news and players could be playing up to stay at VT and keep themselves in good standing around the transfer portal but they’re just bad in all three phases of the game.
