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New DVOA commentary on the weird, inconsistent Washington Commanders
The strangest rating might now might be the Washington Commanders at No. 7 despite a 3-4 record and a bad 44-22 loss to the Dallas Cowboys this week. The reason is that the Commanders were phenomenal
in their three wins. All three games currently have DVOA ratings over 70%, although that could change as opponent adjustments develop. The Commanders are below 0% for all four losses and have the highest variance of any team in the NFL this year. The total package is better than you think, but really inconsistent, and of course they have a lot of injury issues including starting quarterback Jayden Daniels.
It was a good week for the rest of the NFC East, at least when it comes to the DVOA ratings. Dallas climbed eight spots from 17th to eighth after beating the Commanders soundly. The Eagles moved up four spots to No. 11 with a victory over Minnesota. The Giants drop a spot after their close 33-32 loss to Denver, but their actual rating is up a couple of percentage points. They just got passed on the table by the suddenly hot Carolina Panthers, who are now up to 21st overall.
The Athletic (paywall)
NFL trade deadline 2025: Which teams should be buyers, sellers or stand pat?
Washington Commanders: Stand pat
The Commanders made a splash by trading for cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the deadline last year. But they were 7-2 at the time and suddenly one of the hottest teams in the league. Their plan to rebuild was expedited, and they believed they had a chance to contend with some help on the back end. Much has changed since then. Washington is 3-4 this season with two prime-time games — a Monday night road game in Kansas City, then a Sunday night meeting with the Seahawks at home — before the trade deadline. The Commanders’ roster is in shambles because of injuries, and their defense is spiraling. Giving up more draft picks when they’re deficient in many areas wouldn’t make sense. And the players they might be willing to part with may not generate interest elsewhere. — Nicki Jhabvala
Commanders.com
Hail Mail | Why has Frankie Luvu disappeared and why isn’t Jayden under center more?
The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect those of the team.
I’m back for another edition of Hail Mail, and I’ve noticed that the Washington Commanders’ fan base is a little…well, perturbed following last Sunday’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
@robbieroadrunr: Why is Luvu non-existent this year? I blame the scheme. What are your thoughts?
I’ve seen this a lot when it comes to Frankie Luvu, who, in fairness to you, has not been as consistently impactful as he was last year. He had a career season in 2024, and things have been a little uneven for him on the stat sheet.
Here’s my problem with the argument of the scheme being to blame for Luvu’s lack of consistent numbers: it’s the same scheme as last season. It’s not like they’ve drastically changed much about how they use him, at least not to my eyes. What I have seen, though, is that teams are adjusting to him differently than they did last year. They’re treating him as a pass-rusher, which means that offensive lines are accounting for him more often in the protection scheme. That change has helped opponents prevent him from blowing up plays in the backfield — something he often did last season.
But I will give you some credit here by saying that it’s on the coaching staff to figure out ways around that problem. I’m not saying that they haven’t been trying to do that. If you — a fan — and me — a team reporter — can see that teams are playing Luvu differently, then obviously the coaching staff can see that as well. Joe Whitt even mentioned it in one of his press conferences. So, they’re still looking for an answer, and while they might not have found one they like yet, that doesn’t mean they aren’t trying.
@TheJoesList: Why are we always in the shotgun letting teams tee off on Jayden Daniels?
This might sound contradictory, but I don’t think the two are as related as you might think. For one, while they do run most of their plays with Daniels in either the shotgun or pistol formation, that’s always been a key piece of the Commanders’ offense since Kliff Kingsbury was named the offensive coordinator. Indeed, that’s the case for most modern offenses today with most younger quarterbacks possessing some form of athleticism. Also, the shotgun is supposed to allow the quarterback more time to pass the ball, so if that’s your concern (which is valid), I don’t think lining up under center is the solution.
Heavy.com
Quan Martin : Finishes with seven takedowns in Week 7
Martin tallied seven tackles (three solo) in Sunday’s loss against Dallas. Martin finished as Washington’s second-leading tackler behind Bobby Wagner (eight). Through seven games this season, Martin has tallied 41 tackles and two defensed passes.
Heavy.com
Commanders re-sign Jalyn Holmes to Replace Dorance Armstrong Jr.
The Commanders brought back Jalyn Holmes on Tuesday, October 21 after Armstrong was sent to injured reserve. Both moves were confirmed by the team on X.
Holmes suited up for the Commanders in 14 games, including the playoffs, last season. He offers similar flexibility to Armstrong as a lineman who can play on the edge and also slide inside to D-tackle.
What Holmes won’t do is provide the same juice as a pass-rusher as Armstrong, who’d logged 5.5 sacks before suffering what proved to be a season-ending knee injury against former team the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7.
Armstrong’s ability to create pressure will be missed, but Holmes might offer more as an edge-setter against the run. Meanwhile, being without Armstrong should mean extended work for a more decorated pass-rusher.
Sticking with who they know makes some sense for the Commanders. Holmes is familiar with the schemes of head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr., as well as being able to work alongside defensive line coach Darryl Tapp.
Those things might not be endorsements given how much the Commanders are struggling on the defensive side of the ball. They surrendered 44 points to the Cowboys, who moved the ball freely both through the air and on the ground [though, to be fair, those things happened without Holmes on the Commanders roster].
Riggo’s Rag
Commanders are hopeful that Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel can feature in Week 8
Daniels’ status for the game is unclear. However, Quinn offered a much more promising prognosis for two influential figures before preparations gathered pace for the team’s Week 8 showdown.
Washington’s passing attack was anemic during its embarrassing loss to the Cowboys. They didn’t have enough to keep pace, especially considering the defensive frailties and Daniels’ injury in the third quarter. McLaurin and Samuel won’t solve every problem the Commanders are dealing with, but it’ll get them closer.
The coach revealed during an appearance on SiriusXM NFL Radio that the plan is for Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel Sr. to get a whole week of practice before possibly featuring versus the Chiefs. Quinn sounded hopeful, but fans have heard it all before.
Until fans see both on the practice field getting their workload ramped up, they will remain skeptical.
Pro Football Focus
Grading all 32 first-round rookies after Week 7
Pick No. 29: Washington Commanders: T Josh Conerly Jr.
- Overall Rookie Grade: 47.4 (Rank: 6/6)
- Principal Opponent: Donovan Ezeiruaku
- Week 7 Snaps: 67
- Week 7 Grade: 42.1
Conerly officially allowed four pressures this week, although he was beaten on five other occasions in pass protection, which led to his 43.6 PFF pass-blocking grade against the Cowboys. He didn’t fare much better in the run game, where he recorded a 56.2 PFF grade. Conerly has certainly endured his struggles in the early part of this season, along with the rest of the Commanders’ offense.
Pro Football Focus (premium content)
NFL season-long statistical review ahead of Week 8: Team tiers, pass rates and more
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NBC Sports Philadelphia
Roob’s Eagles Stats: A Jalen Hurts special edition after another masterpiece
1. Hurts’ 108.9 passer rating is highest in Eagles history through seven games. The previous high was Carson Wentz’s 108.1 in 2018. Hurts is only the third quarterback ever with 70 percent completion percentage, 11 or more passing TDs and one or fewer interceptions through seven games. The others are Alex Smith in 2017 and Drew Brees in 2018.
2A. The Vikings went into the game Sunday with the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 157.6 yards per game. Hurts became only the third player in history with a perfect 158.3 rating against a team ranked first or second in pass defense going into the game. Former Eagle Ken O’Brien did it with the Jets against the top-ranked Seahawks in Week 9 of the 1986 season and Kerry Collins of the Giants did it in Week 16 of the 2002 season against the 2nd-ranked Colts defense.
2B. And this is an odd one, but the most-accurate games of Hurts’ career and three of the five-most accurate games have come against the Vikings. He completed a career-high 83.9 percent in a 2022 win at the Linc, 82.6 percent Sunday and 78.3 percent in a win at the Linc in 2023. Only Aaron Rodgers has completed 78 percent of his passes in more games against the Vikings – and he’s faced them 31 times. Hurts has faced them three times. Hurts’ 81.8 career completion percentage is highest in history vs. the Vikings (minimum 50 attempts). Chad Pennington is second at 77.9. Hurts’ 123.6 passer rating is also highest ever vs. the Vikings. Gary Cuozzo, a New Jersey native who played for the Colts, Saints, Vikings and Cardinals in the 1960s and early 1970s, is second at 117.4.
3. Hurts completed 82 percent of his passes Sunday for 326 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Vikings. He’s the first quarterback in Eagles history to complete 82 percent of his passes for at least 300 yards and three TDs with no INTs. Even if you take out the interceptions and passing yards, only Hurts and Donovan McNabb have had a game completing at least 80 percent of their passes with three TDs.
Blogging the Boys
Cowboys trade rumors: Dallas reportedly inquiring about Raiders DE Maxx Crosby
The Crosby rumor is a specific name, but there appears to be a lot of smoke around the Cowboys and the idea of a trade in general. Consider what Adam Schefter said on his latest podcast episode about the team and trade deadline:
“I would say that the Dallas Cowboys are having conversations about moves that they can make before the trade deadline to try to improve that defense, just like Jerry Jones said that they could and would once they traded Micah Parsons.”
“I’m not telling you that they will be able to pull anything off, but I will not be surprised if we hear Dallas, at the very least, inquiring about the availability of various defensive players. And ultimately trading for one before the Tuesday, November 4th trade deadline.”
Update: 4:10pm ET
Clarence Hill reported that the Cowboys have not made any contact with the Raiders on this front.
NFL.com
Raiders not interested in trading Pro Bowl DE Maxx Crosby, who wants to stay in Las Vegas
Though the Las Vegas Raiders are mired in last place in the AFC West with just two wins through seven weeks, defensive end Maxx Crosby isn’t looking to move on and neither is the franchise.
The Raiders and Crosby met Tuesday with the team conveying it was not shopping him nor would it trade him, NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero and NFL Network’s Jane Slater reported. Crosby has no desire to be traded, either.
Unsurprisingly, teams are interested in Crosby, but he’s going nowhere, Pelissero and Slater added.
The 28-year-old Crosby is regarded as one of the elite pass rushers in the game, evidenced by his four Pro Bowl selections and 63.5 career sacks since the Raiders struck gold when they took him in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft.
Crosby’s had double-digit sacks in three seasons so far and has produced four in 2025 along with 28 tackles, five passes defensed and his first career interception.
In March, Crosby signed a three-year, $106.5 million extension.
Upcoming opponent
Arrowhead Pride
Stone Forsyth didn’t cause Omarr Norman-Lott’s injury
No matter what I think about it, the Raiders’ backup left tackle — who was filling in for the injured starter Kolton Miller — was going to end up with some blame for the rookie defensive tackle’s season-ending ACL injury, which happened with 2:30 left in the third quarter.
Forsyth was, in fact, the player who was engaged with Norman-Lott before he went down. He did draw an (entirely justified) unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for dropping on the Kansas City player after he was on the ground.
But I have now watched the video many times. While there is room for interpretation — unfortunately, the available video doesn’t include a great angle of the incident — it doesn’t appear that Forsyth caused the injury; Norman-Lott seems to be reaching for his knee before Forsyth lands on him.
Could Forsyth have made the injury worse? Yes… that is possible. But while I believe he absolutely deserved to be penalized for hitting Norman-Lott while he was on the ground, it appeared to be a garden-variety foul — much like a pass rusher who draws a flag for taking two steps (rather than one) before hitting a quarterback after the ball is away. It didn’t appear to be a cold-blooded, deliberate attempt to inflict physical harm on the rookie.
If you believe otherwise… well, you’re entitled to that. The legacy of Ben Davidson dies hard.
Arrowhead Pride
The Chiefs are once again the Super Bowl favorites
It took a while, but Kansas City once again feel inevitable.
NFL teams rarely win like Kansas City did on Sunday. But in the NCAA, we see these kinds of games every season. Power conference teams play those from smaller schools to prepare for conference play.
The Raiders didn’t just lose. They were completely and utterly humiliated. And the Chiefs didn’t just win. They made a statement:
The Chiefs are back.
No disclaimers or qualifiers are needed; the statement is simply true. Kansas City is once again FanDuel Sportsbook’s favorite to win the Super Bowl — and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win this season’s MVP award.
And yet… if the season ended today, the Chiefs wouldn’t get a playoff spot.
How can these two things be true? Because the people who built those big casinos in the desert see what we see:
The Chiefs are back — and they’re not likely to be stopped.
[Editorial comment from Bill-in-Bangkok: While I understand the exuberance of fans of the 4-3 Chiefs, it seems prudent to recall that the Commanders beat the Raiders (who are now 2-5) in Week 3 by a score of 41-24 with a backup quarterback. Two of the Chiefs other three wins have come against the 1-5 Ravens and the 2-5 Giants.]
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Time to pull the starting QB? Pros and cons of making the move for 5 teams
New York Jets (0-7)
Current starter: Justin Fields
Key stat: A career-low 32.1 Total QBR, which ranks 31st out of 33 qualified passers.
Possible replacement: Tyrod Taylor
Long-term implications: The Jets are currently projected to have the No. 1 pick and could very well pick a quarterback, so all this Fields-Taylor talk probably has no bearing on the long term. They can cut Fields after the season, but they would be stuck with $22 million in dead cap charges. They still have a $35 million cap hit for Aaron Rodgers in 2025, meaning they would be paying $57 million for quarterbacks no longer on the roster.
Minnesota Vikings (3-3)
Current starter: Carson Wentz
Key stat: He is 2-2 as a starter.
Possible replacement: J.J. McCarthy
Why the move might be made: At some point, the Vikings need to get McCarthy back on the field to give him the live-game reps he clearly needs to develop as a potential long-term starter. Wentz has demonstrated some admirable attributes — a quick assimilation of the offense, toughness in the open field and a willingness to push the ball downfield — but he’s playing like a low-level starter/high-end backup. His 42.9 QBR ranks No. 25 in the league. There’s no evidence to suggest he will repeat Sam Darnold’s 2024 run and lead the Vikings to the playoffs.
Wentz for now: The Vikings have a short week with a road game Thursday night at the Los Angeles Chargers, meaning they will have only one true day of on-field work in between. McCarthy was limited in practice this past week amid his ongoing recovery from a high right ankle sprain, and coach Kevin O’Connell has said he does not want to rush him back for a game until he is fully prepared. That would be a difficult benchmark to hit over the course of a short week and before a flight halfway across the country. If Wentz’s left shoulder gives him trouble, undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer could be an option.
What the coach is saying: “We’ll see how [Wentz] turns over. I know Max was ready to go today and J.J. was the emergency three, but J.J. was able to get some work last week. We’ll see how he feels as well and on a short week. We’re going to put together the best plan we can, and that also includes the players available to us.”
Long-term implications: McCarthy needs game (and practice) reps after missing all last year because of a torn meniscus in his right knee, and then almost a month of practice — along with four games and counting — because of an ankle injury. In all, he has missed 21 of 23 NFL games. The longer it takes to get him back into the lineup, the less time he’ll have for establishing himself as the team’s long-term quarterback before the end of this season.
NFL.com
Vikings to start QB Carson Wentz on Thursday vs. Chargers with J.J. McCarthy (ankle) ‘not there yet’
Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell said Tuesday that the club put quarterback J.J. McCarthy through an on-field workout but that the second-year quarterback was still not ready to return to action on a short week while dealing with a nagging ankle injury.
Rookie Max Brosmer will be the backup on Thursday in L.A.
O’Connell noted that if the Vikings played on Sunday, McCarthy might have a shot to start, but he’s “just not there yet.” The implication of the comment is that McCarthy might be ready to go in Week 9 at Detroit.
