The Dallas Cowboys are looking for their third win of the season on Sunday afternoon, and to get it they’ll have to hand the Carolina Panthers their fourth loss – but first at home. The Panthers are 2-0 at home so far with a decisive 30-0 win against the Falcons, and last week’s 27-24 comeback against the Miami Dolphins. A win would be the third in three years on the road in Carolina for a Dallas team that’s played there under different circumstances each time, and now arrives off their best win of the season,
also on the road, and best all-around game under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer.
The way the Cowboys played against the Jets was encouraging for the growth of a team looking forward to getting much healthier on both sides of the ball as the importance of their upcoming games increases. It also is directly encouraging for their matchup against the Panthers, as they’ll come into Sunday still a banged up team, but won in dominant fashion despite being banged up at the Jets.
Let’s take our weekly look at what the Cowboys need to do to string together consecutive wins for the first time in 2025, and what could kill their momentum from the Jets game and create another setback.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Carolina Panthers if…
TE Jake Ferguson has another big game.
The Cowboys passing offense getting the ball to Jake Ferguson has always been a good barometer for how well the whole operation is going, and so far this season there has been a lot of Ferguson in year one of Schotty calling plays. Ferguson had the first two-touchdown game of his career last Sunday against the Jets. The Cowboys offense put on a masterclass of playing ball control to protect the lead, running the ball out of tight formations, using play-action off of this on Ferguson’s second touchdown, and using motion to create big throws to Ryan Flournoy and George Pickens when needed. All of these things bode well for a Cowboys offense that will see a Panthers defense with Jaycee Horn at cornerback, who can present a similar challenge against Pickens that Sauce Gardner did for the Jets.
This isn’t to say Pickens won’t be able to make the type of downfield play the Cowboys receivers made against the Panthers last year, with Jalen Brooks catching his only career touchdown from Cooper Rush, but it’s much more likely another big game is in store from Ferguson. Last week against the Panthers, Dolphins TE Darren Waller caught all five of his targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. The previous week in a Panthers loss at the Patriots, Hunter Henry caught both of his targets for 39 yards. Cardinals tight end Trey McBride led the team in targets, catches and yards, in a 27-22 win against the Panthers in week two.
Carolina has improved against the run from the start of the season, but have yet to figure out how to regularly slow down opposing tight ends. With a front seven littered with new names brought in through free agency this offseason, the Cowboys should be able to create favorable matchups with their misdirection and condensed splits from receivers to free up Ferguson all over the field.
The Panthers defense has been hard to sustain drives against as they’ve gotten used to these lineup changes though, so the Cowboys carrying over their game plan from the Jets would be even more impressive. Carolina’s defense locked things down after falling behind 17-0 last week to allow their offense to come back. After allowing a field goal and two touchdowns on Miami’s first three drives, the Dolphins punted on their next five drives, three of which were three-and-outs. The Cowboys won’t want to put this same type of pressure on their own defense, despite the strides they made against the Jets with hope of continued improvement.
Continuing to find ways to get the ball to Jake Ferguson, especially to finish drives in the red zone against a defense that ranks 21st in red zone scoring percentage against, might be the best way to accomplish this.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Carolina Panthers if…
they can’t contain Panthers QB Bryce Young.
Bryce Young has not fared well at all in his career playing against the Cowboys. In two starts against the Cowboys, one with a defense coordinated by Dan Quinn and last year’s with Mike Zimmer, he’s been sacked 13 times. The seven sacks Quinn’s defense had against him in 2019 is the most times Young has been sacked in his career. Last year, the Zimmer defense not known for bringing pressure got to Young six times. Young has thrown three interceptions to two touchdowns against the Cowboys in these games.
His yards per attempt against the Cowboys paint an interesting story, as he had the third highest mark of his career at 7.8 in last year’s loss. This included a career-long 83-yard touchdown to Jalen Coker which cut the Cowboys early lead to 10-7. In 2019, Young had just 4.2 yards per completion in a wire-to-wire 33-10 Cowboys win.
The narrative for the Cowboys defense this season now called by Matt Eberflus has been struggling against mobile quarterbacks and allowing too many big plays through the air. Despite the 40 points allowed to the Packers, the Cowboys started to show some signs of tightening this up in week four, and then built on both against Justin Fields and the Jets. The Cowboys are close to being able to turn the page on this narrative in a lot of ways and focus on getting more help like Demarvion Overshown and Caelen Carson back on the field. To do so, they need to avoid a letdown at the Panthers.
Keeping Young in the pocket with just their front four will be critical for the Dallas defense. Carolina lives out of 11 personnel on offense and isn’t afraid to spread things out. The Cowboys zone will be tested, but if they keep Young in the pocket they stand the best chance to keep the ball in front of them and force the Panthers to be methodical. The pass rush had a big day against the Jets with Dante Fowler and James Houston bringing consistent pressure, and getting offenses off the field quickly with these types of splash plays is a huge deal when the Cowboys own offense is leading the league in so many categories. A few such drives early against the Panthers to persuade them out of the run game with Rico Dowdle would also be welcomed.
Dowdle was the leading rusher for the Cowboys last year, and now is coming off a career game against the Dolphins as the Panthers lead back, taking over that role with Chubba Hubbard injured. If Osa Odighizuwa, Solomon Thomas, Kenny Clark, Shemar James, and Marist Liufau can pick up where they left off against the Jets in the front seven, the Cowboys will similarly have a chance to build the lead against the Panthers, make them one-dimensional, and overall win the possession battle.
If for whatever reason the Cowboys offense gets off to a slow start and lets the Panthers settle into this game with their own offense, having to throw different looks at Young as the game goes on, it could lead to a harder day than expected for Dallas’ return trip to Carolina. Young is not a quarterback to take lightly despite the very up-and-down nature of his career to date, and a Cowboys defense with growing hopes they can keep this team in playoff contention will have to be sound against him on Sunday.
