The Royals have spent the early offseason signaling an appetite for upgrades in the outfield, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting they prefer to add two outfielders – one via free agency and one via trade. The free agency market is thin, leaving the Royals to sort through potential platoon options. But the Royals could add a starter by leveraging their pitching surplus, and one potential option is Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar.
The Cardinals are reportedly listening on all of their players,
although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes they are not “actively seeking to trade” Nootbaar. Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote that if the Cardinals do not receive a bounty in exchange for Brendan Donovan, they “will pivot to moving” Nootbaar or infielder Nolan Gorman.
Chaim Bloom has taken over the front office in St. Louis and will look to put his mark on a franchise that has missed each of the last three postseasons. That could mean moving Nootbaar, who has two more years of club control before reaching free agency.
Nootbaar was an eighth-round draft pick in 2018 out of USC and debuted with the Cardinals in 2021. He hit just .228 in 2022, but posted a strong walk rate and hit for solid power. He posted a career-best 124 OPS+, although he had only 347 plate appearances. His numbers have declined slightly in each season since then, and he had his first below-average OPS+ this year at 95. He hit .234/.325/.361 with 13 home runs, while playing a career-high 135 games and was worth 1.3 rWAR.
Nootbaar’s strength is something the Royals have sought since J.J. Picollo took over – he gets on base. He has a career .341 on-base percentage, and his 12.8 percent walk rate since 2021 is the 16th-best in baseball. He has the third-lowest swing rate and the eighth-lowest swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone.
Despite a patient eye, Nootbaar is not a high strikeout guy, nor is he bereft of power. He averages 18 home runs per 162 games, although just 7 of his 13 home runs last year would have been a home run at the K.
Nootbaar is an average defender in the outfield corners. He has spent most of his career in right field, but has logged significant time in center, and spent most of last year in left field. He has below-average sprint speed, and was caught stealing five times last year, and was successful only four times.
A left-handed hitter, Nootbaar struggles a bit against southpaws, hitting just .201/.291/.289 last year against them. His career splits aren’t that severe, however, and he has a career .329 on-base percentage against lefties. His power did disappear in the second half of last year – he slugged just .326 after the All-Star break.
Nootbaar has struggled to stay on the field in his career, having reached 120 games just once and never topping 135. He underwent surgery this fall to address bone spurs near the base of the Achilles tendon in both heels. The discomfort from that issue may have hampered his numbers, and he is not likely to be ready for the start of next season.
Nootbaar is eligible for arbitration and is projected to make around $5.7 million. The asking price for Nootbaar will be lower than for Donovan, but it would still require a significant return. The Cardinals certainly don’t have to move him – they’d be selling low on him with his injury issue – and there should be other suitors – the Rangers reportedly have interest. Goold reported that the Cardinals had interest in Royals pitcher Noah Cameron, but that would be much too high a price to pay for Nootbaar. Kris Bubic would be better value, but it doesn’t seem like the Cardinals are planning on making a postseason push next year, so they seem unlikely to have interest. The Cardinals have good catching depth in their organization, making the Royals a poor fit with their minor league depth.
Still, the Royals have some assets to offer. Could a package of Drew Beam, Michael Lombardi, and the 2026 Competitive Balance Round A pick work?
The trade allows the Cardinals to bolster their minor-league pitching depth with polished, high-upside arms. They also give Bloom an extra pick so he can build up the Cardinals’ farm system to his liking. The Royals don’t have to part with top pitching prospects David Shields or Kendry Chourio, nor their MLB pitching depth.
Ultimately, a deal for Nootbaar would reflect the Royals’ willingness to balance present needs with long-term value, adding a disciplined hitter who fits their offensive identity without sacrificing their highest-end pitching talent. His injury uncertainty and recent dip in production make him a calculated gamble, but his on-base skills, defensive versatility, and remaining club control give him the kind of upside the Royals rarely find on the trade market. If the price is right, Nootbaar could be a meaningful upgrade for 2026 and beyond.
