A lot of my football analysis is based on body mechanics and science. My schedule doesn’t allow me to pay a ton of attention to teams that aren’t the Buffalo Bills. That said, what I do know a good deal about is behavioral science and hiring strategies, so let’s chat about that a bit.
If you’re looking for my thoughts on mitigating any potential conflict of having quarterback Josh Allen be part of the search, you can find that here.
The right hire = skills + cultural fit
I’m going to preface this entire thing right out of the gate that
in no way am I insinuating that cultural fit was the only, or even primary consideration for naming Joe Brady the new head coach. Technical skills matter. Knowledge matters. In a job like this, even reaction time and cognitive processing speed matter (ex: juggling information to know whether or not to challenge while the other team races to get the next play off).
With that said, at this level of competition you will find candidates who check off the technical aspects of the job and if there’s more than one person who has the right tools for the position, you go with the better cultural fit.
Let’s go back in time a bit to when fans of the Bills were focused on which quarterback the team would be selecting in the 2018 NFL Draft. Most of the NFL world debated skill set and capability, but when asked my opinion on which quarterback I wanted the Bills to draft, I always took it in another direction.
That’s not because I was completely unaware of talent. I did film reviews of all the major draft prospects. My conclusion? While there were variations in skill sets to be sure, I felt most of the major prospects had enough talent to be “the one.” We all know Josh Allen sure the heck does. Sam Darnold will be playing in a Super Bowl, so clearly he’s not some limiting factor preventing the Seattle Seahawks from having success. Baker Mayfield has had a resurgence. Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP. I still maintain Josh Rosen flaming out wasn’t because of his capability, but rather motivation.
Which direction then, did I steer my answer? Whenever asked which quarterback I wanted most, I would answer “whichever one the front office fell in love with.” The front office will certainly have a big early push for whoever they pick, but if they don’t love their selection, that motivation will flame out quickly. Josh Rosen is the prime example of that. Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield both saw their team fall out of love with them. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have had sustained love from their team.
That culture fit for Allen and Jackson led to both players being allowed to grow through mistakes and see coaches attempt to change the team in ways to shape more toward their star players. For the other guys, a lot of moves seemed to be in spite of them.
Rosen as we know never caught on anywhere, famously being cast off the year after the Arizona Cardinals traded three picks to move up five spots in the first round to get him. Mayfield and Darnold’s success have both come with chatter sounding an awful lot like finding a team where they felt they fit in and were wanted. These players didn’t suddenly take a giant talent leap forward, they just found the right cultural fit.
That’s a lot of words about quarterbacks, but it will all apply to head coaches too. Cultural fit sounds like a buzzword, but it matters. A lot. It isn’t about having friends at the water cooler. It’s about efficiency and decision making.
We’ve all had a coworker who doesn’t fit in. I’m not talking about a bad employee, more like someone who just doesn’t seem to match the vibe of the team. Try to think of that person in your life. Now think of a scenario where you have to work together on a major project. Even if the worst is just awkwardness, that lack of vibe can cost you time. It will create a lack of comfort when throwing out new ideas. Most importantly, this is a coworker for whom you’ll be less inclined to move mountains.
General manager Brandon Beane was part of the hiring group that landed on Brady. If a team’s general manager isn’t moving mountains for his head coach, they’re dead in the water. Terry Pegula was part of the hiring group. If the owner feels awkward being around the head coach, they’re dead in the water. Josh Allen was part of the hiring group. If the face of the franchise doesn’t like being around the head coach, they’re losing the locker room and they’re worse than dead in the water.
So yes, don’t hire a person without talent. But do find a person with talent and someone who fits in with the key stakeholders already on the team.
