Troy Melton has returned to the fold with three good starts. Tarik Skubal rehabbed in West Michigan successfully on Sunday and may be ready to assume his rightful place atop the Detroit Tigers rotation by this weekend. Casey Mize made a rehab start in Clearwater at the Single-A level on Tuesday with the Lakeland Flying Tigers and seems likely to return either immediately or after one more rehab outing this weekend. And finally, Justin Verlander made a second Triple-A level rehab start in Toledo on Wednesday.
At the risk of counting our chickens before they hatch, the club appears set to be back to full strength in the starting rotation over the next two weeks. Deploying all this pitching successfully will be crucial to powering the run they need to go on to get back in the thick of the playoff picture.
Fortunately for the Tigers, not only have they shown signs of life with wins in six of their last eight games, but they’re getting healthy, and apart from the top few teams the American League is still in relative shambles. Only five of the fifteen clubs are over the .500 mark, and even the White Sox, Guardians, and Mariners are only just above that line. Even after one of the worst months in franchise history, the Tigers are only 5.5 games out in the chase for the final AL Wild Card berth. The issue is that they’re only ahead of the Angels in the standings, so they have to outplay quite a few teams by a wide margin to catch up.
The 28-40 Tigers have 45 games left ahead of them until the August 3, 6:00 p.m. ET trade deadline. Sure, there are all sorts of ways this could play out, but fundamentally that 45 game span sets a limit for how long the club has to convincingly get into the playoff picture before they decide to sell, buy, or both at the trade deadline.
So none of this is to suggest that the Tigers are likely to catch fire for a sustained stretch and really get themselves back into contention. More than likely the decisions at the deadline will be pretty difficult with the Tigers not out of it, but still not holding a wild card berth. They’re a longshot now, but a comeback certainly looks less improbable than it did a week ago. They do appear to have both Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize on track to return by the middle of the month. If they’re pitching really well that’s great for their trade value, but it also probably means that the Tigers are making up ground and will having a tougher decision on whether to sell than they do at the moment.
Right now, the focus has to be on resetting this roster. The Tigers could really use an upgrade somewhere on the bench and at the back of their lineup. But first and foremost they need to figure out how to organize their pitching staff.
The first part is extremely simple. You plug Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize back into the rotation at first opportunity. With their top three starters re-established in the rotation, the Tigers are a much more formidable team to deal with, and their presence will finally allow their bullpen to get in some kind of consistent shape and usage patterns again.
The hard part, is deciding who gets the last two spots in the starting rotation, and who goes to the bullpen or down to Toledo. With Kenley Jansen rehabbing and probably only one more outing from returning to the Tigers by the beginning of next week, the spots are a bit limited, and the return of Skubal, Mize, and Verlander is going to push a few arms into the bullpen anyway.
Justin Verlander
This is the really tough call. After missing two months with left hip inflammation, the future Hall of Famer and Tigers’ legend has now made two starts with the Toledo Mud Hens, building up to 86 pitches on Wednesday. Assuming the hip doesn’t flare up in his recovery work on Thursday and Friday, Verlander appears to be healthy and ready to go in that sense, but he also doesn’t look ready to handle major league hitters yet either.
Verlander allowed four solo home runs and some other very hard contact from the St. Paul Saints on Wednesday. His fourseam fastball averaged 92.9 mph, topping out at 95.5 mph, and while it still has above average riding life, Verlander has below average extension these days as well. He struggled a bit with his slider, and perhaps was throwing it in some odd counts just trying to dial it in, but against a Triple-A lineup, he only collected one whiff on it, while getting four on the fastball. Not really what you want to see.
This just isn’t going to cut it in the big leagues, especially considering that one of Melton or Montero will have to move out of the rotation to accomodate him. If they decide to give Verlander a few starts and he struggles, they may be responsible for blowing up their already poor chances of getting into contention by August 3. Putting him in the pen to see if that helps him get it going is the alternate move, but the Tigers may well simply have to cut bait if it’s not going well. That will require some fortitude, because cutting Verlander won’t be an easy conversation, nor will a conversation about moving to the bullpen.
Don’t be surprised if the Tigers aren’t quite convinced that Verlander is back to full strength just yet, despite the pitch count on Wednesday. The obvious move is to schedule one more rehab start to put the decision off a bit longer and see if he can get it going. It’s possible that he just needs another outing or two to get dialed in after two months on the injured list, but he’ll have to show sharper stuff to convince anyone that he should be rejoining the starting rotation and moving one the following pitchers to the bullpen. Skubal and Mize are already on track to push two of this group to the pen anyway.
Jack Flaherty
For a while, it looked like Jack Flaherty was going to have to move to the bullpen as well. It’s certainly an open question as he’s been better of late but still mediocre overall. Going back to May 1, the right-hander has allowed three or more runs in all but two of his eight starts. He’s pulled it together enough to avoid the big blow-ups lately, and he’s gotten the walks well under control over the last five starts, but there’s no telling what might come. If Flaherty strung together eight good starts in a row, it wouldn’t be shocking. It also wouldn’t be shocking if he got shelled out of a starting role in the next few weeks.
Flaherty has probably earned himself a little more leash for now, but if things start falling apart again, a move to the bullpen is indicated. For all his troubles this year, Flaherty still holds a 26.3 percent strikeout rate and a 4.12 FIP. He gets plenty of whiffs and has kept the home runs under control. In the bullpen, he could sit 95 mph, strike a lot of guys out, and if he starts to lose the strikezone you just call in the next reliever up in the pen.
Keider Montero
Between Verlander, Flaherty, and Keider Montero, it is Montero who has the best argument to stay in the rotation. The long-overlooked right-hander has once again emerged as a real godsend when the Tigers needed him, and yet he continues to be treated like a sidenote in their plans.
Montero has been an absolute workhorse since he was in rookie ball. He doesn’t miss starts, and that proven durability and his relentless strike throwing this season are his best arguments for staying in the rotation. The more mature approach he’s featured this season has been noticeable, and you’d hate to see him moved to the bullpen just as he’s navigating lineups more effectively and gaining confidence in his ability to attack hitters and pitch efficiently deep in games.
Montero’s 3.95 ERA and 4.16 FIP both say he’s the best of this group. Sure, we’d like more strikeouts, but Verlander nor Troy Melton are striking out any more than Montero. Unlike those two, Montero also has a very good changeup to help combat platoon splits and keep left-handed hitters in check. He does need to generate more whiffs, and his tendency toward more and more fly balls against him is a concern as the weather heats up, but again, you could say the same for Verlander or Melton. Montero has always been overlooked, and yet he continues to show up for the Tigers and improve. They’d be in even bigger trouble without him and you’d hate to see that rewarded with a move to the bullpen in a season where it feels like he’s putting his complete game together.
Troy Melton
Melton has only made four starts since returning from the injured list after forearm inflammation early in camp saw the Tigers take no chances and immediately put him on the 60-day injured list to make sure he was 100 percent before he returned. The right-hander throws hard, and he has a good cutter/slider combination. His splitter remains too inconsistent to be a factor, and until he conquers that issue, he’s best deployed in the bullpen.
Sure, Melton holds a 2.81 ERA in those four starts, but his relatively meager strikeout rates as a starter in the big league tell a different story. So far, he’s only struck out 13.7 percent of hitters faced. We can expect that to improve as he settles into his routine, but despite good velocity and great extension, his fastball remains fairly hittable in the zone. Combine that issue with the fact that he can’t command his splitter and is vulnerable to left-handed hitters as a result, and you have a pretty good case for putting him in the pen and letting him air out the heater to 98-99 mph, where it is a plus pitch that gets whiffs.
Long-term, Melton probably has to be part of the Tigers’ rotation plans, but it can wait for now. If they end up trading starting pitching at the deadline, Melton will likely stretch out and take over one of those spots anyway. For now, the bullpen could certainly use a killer, and Melton at peak velocity and with his chill demeanor, has some closer vibes.
Ty Madden
After a lost season in 2025 due to a shoulder injury, the 26-year-old Madden has also pitched pretty well for the Tigers in a pinch. He’s striking out 26.8 percent of hitters with a 2.60 ERA and a 3.28 FIP across 17.1 innings of work. Walks have remained an issue for him, and even in Toledo this season they were a problem, but he’s managed to avoid them since his call-up at the beginning of May despite getting sent back down to Toledo for a start late in the month before returning.
Madden is coming off a lost year, and my feeling is that letting him remain a starter might be the best way to help him build back to full strength. He used to sit 95 mph and touch 99-100, but we haven’t seen that since the injuries started to bite him. His fastball shape is very hittable, and that’s also been the issue with him as a prospect. He shows some signs of working on that, occasionally popping 18-19 inches of induced vertical break before losing that release feel again and returning to his usual pedestrian numbers. Maybe that can keep developing if he’s pitching on regular rest every fifth day in Toledo for a while.
On the other hand, Madden has a six-pitch mix and has learned to use that advantage to better handle hitters on either side of the plate. He packs a cutter, slider, curveball to go with the fourseam-sinker combo, and his splitter is a little more reliable than Melton’s at this point. All of this argues that he should be the one to stay stretched out in case of further injury trouble.
These decisions may decide the Tigers fate
The decisions that Scott Harris, GM Jeff Greenberg, and manager A.J. Hinch make about the pitching staff in the next week or two are going to be crucial. The decisions they make at the trade deadline may well be the deciding ones in the current front office’s tenure running the Detroit Tigers. The pressure cooker is real, and in their current circumstances, the room for error is non-existant.
Let’s say the rotation becomes Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty, and Justin Verlander, as initially intended. Those are big decisions to keep Flaherty and Verlander starting, and move Melton and Montero to the pen. They really can’t waste their innings in Toledo.
With Kenley Jansen nearing a return, the rest of the bullpen could look like this.
Will Vest
Kyle Finnegan
Drew Anderson
Tyler Holton
Enmanuel de Jesus
Keider Montero
Troy Melton
If we presume that Skubal and Mize will get back to full strength in relative order, the rotation is going to be better no matter who occupies the final two spots. Moving two starters like Melton and Montero adds up to a much improved bullpen, especially if they get back to a full-on matchup strategy again and don’t just reflexively have Kenley Jansen close games. The Tigers are missing Brant Hurter, but Montero and Anderson’s ability to handle left-handed hitters helps balance things out as well. The length available from former starters with Montero and Melton added to the mix should also help them to cut Flaherty and Verlander’s outings short as needed. Drew Sommers, Beau Brieske, and Brenan Hanifee would then return to Triple-A Toledo. Both Sommers and Brieske need to lock in their command to be effective anyway.
Were the Tigers to keep one of Melton or Montero in the rotation, moving Flaherty or perhaps Verlander to the pen, that’s a pretty interesting debate between the two young starters. I lean toward Montero staying in the rotation, but there are good arguments on both sides. There are also decent reasons to keep Flaherty starting for a while longer to see if a deeper pen and a quicker hook helps get more out him. On the other hand, Flaherty would probably do well in the bullpen, but sometimes that transition is pretty difficult.
The Verlander decisions are not easy because of the circumstance, but the Tigers really cannot afford to give him 4-5 starts just to see if he can get rolling. Whatever they decide, that decision can’t wait through a month of poor starts just because he’s Justin Verlander.
What I think is a must, is that Montero and Melton stay in the major leagues. Wasting either one of them in Triple-A just to stay stretched out in case of an injury is absolutely not the right move. With Madden I think there’s more of a case to let him keep getting starting reps under his belt, especially if they’re adding Montero and Melton to the bullpen. After a year away, Madden could use the reps, and if he can just stay healthy and solidify his progress this year he has plenty of future ahead with the Detroit Tigers.
Of course, we’ve already gotten a crash course in how plans can go awry this season. Further injuries might make some of these decisions for the club by the time everyone is actually healthy and ready to go. Skubal appears to be on track to return this weekend, while Mize, Verlander, and Jansen are still a bit more up in the air. What is perfectly clear, however, is that how they deploy their pitching staff at full strength is going to be crucial to their chances of catching fire and gaining enough ground in the standings to avoid an obvious sell-off situation at the trade deadline.
If they can get into good position, maybe they don’t sell. Mediocre position, a few games out of a playoff spot? Maybe you sell to a degree, but get major league ready pitching and look to sneak into the playoffs with a surge in August and September anyway even if it does come down to trading Tarik Skubal. Bad position? It’s time to commit to trading most of their veterans and start reshaping the club for 2027 and beyond.
Obviously there are still all sorts of different ways this season could play out. Baseball will baseball. The trade deadline just limits how long the club has to turn things around and affect the way management approaches it. Whatever comes, the strange, unfortunate drama of the early 2026 season is now into a crucial stretch that might decide not just this season, but several seasons down the road. Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg better stack up a lot of smart decisions over the next eight weeks, and some of them are likely to be painful ones.
