After besting Brentford at the Emirates to retain their lead at the top of the table, Arsenal head west to take on an ascendant Aston Villa for a top 4 clash on Saturday afternoon.
The Gunners gambled on
a heavily rotated side midweek against the Bees following three heavyweight matches coming out of the international break. With Manchester City gaining steam, the makeshift starting XI took care of business at the Emirates and quieted some of the criticisms following their draw against Chelsea on the weekend, regaining a 5 point lead over City while title-contenders Chelsea lost to Leeds at Elland Road.
Villa Park awaits, with far more title implications than anyone would have expected as the season began. Unai Emery’s side has rocketed up the table following a rocky start, and now they look one of the class sides of the league, right on time to host Emery’s former club. Villa have been a thorn in Arsenal’s side under Emery, a role they surely relish, having played spoiler to the Gunners’ title hopes in the past.
Can the Gunners weather what will undoubtedly be a 4th mentally and physically demanding match in two weeks and retain breathing room at the top of the table?
Here are three talking points ahead of Saturday’s match:
Know the Enemy
Aston Villa enter match week 15 in 3rd place in the Premier League on 27 points with a record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses.
Is there a more interesting side in the league than the Villans are right now? Arguably not. After a miserable start to their PL campaign under former Arsenal manager Unai Emery, they were winless in their first 5 matches and only scored one goal in the process. Since then, they have turned their fortunes around to become the most in-form side in the league, having won their last 4 consecutive matches and 8 of their last 9 to earn a spot in the top 4 of the table.
Their rise has been bolstered by an attack that has defied the statistics more than just about any other side. It’s not simply that they are over-performing their xG (14.28) by the third-largest margin in the league (+5.72), but that they are doing so with an abundance of long-range strikes and the lowest xG per shot in the league (0.09). On the other end of the pitch, their defense is also performing above the stats, conceding 5 less goals below the expected xG from opposition, which is the second best rate in the league.
They have scored 9 goals from outside the box and are on pace to challenge the record set by Chelsea (23) in the 2006-07 season. In other words, they are the Steph Curry of the league – simply ridiculous from distance. Is it sustainable? Maybe, maybe not. Everyone thought that Arsenal’s set-piece prowess wouldn’t last when they began bagging them at a league-leading rate two seasons ago, and it hasn’t slowed down appreciably yet.
One of their strengths is that, like Arsenal, they spread their goals around. Nine different players have netted for the Villans, with former Hale Ender Donyell Malen leading the scoring with 4. A team without a set focal point in their attack means that every player is a threat, and the defense will need to keep their head on a swivel. They score goals from everywhere, and netted 3 set-piece goals against Brighton in their 4-3 come-from-behind win on Wednesday, as well as a lighting quick counter-attack.
And then there’s that frustrating factor – Unai Emery. Since being canned by Arsenal in 2019, he has gotten his revenge against his former club more often than not. In 9 meetings against Arsenal, he has only lost twice. His 3 wins over Arsenal include a massively deflating 2-0 win during Arsenal’s run-in in 2024, a result that led to the Gunners missing out on the title by a point to Manchester City.
Villa are a team riding a wave of momentum, buoyed by some severe statistical fortune. If they can maintain their current level, they will certainly be capable of a fifth win on the trot if the Gunners aren’t up for it at Villa Park.
Injuries & Suspensions
Arsenal’s inability to avoid further injuries in the PL reared its ugly head once again on Wednesday. Cristhian Mosquera came off in the 1st half against Brentford after landing awkwardly following an aerial duel. It was hard to tell what exactly was injured, but it’s highly concerning that it was a non-contact injury. He walked off, but was treated for a decent bit before being subbed. No update has been given yet, but it’s safe to assume he will be unavailable for Saturday’s top 4 affair.
Declan Rice gave Arsenal fans a scare when he hit the deck late in the second half, favoring his calf. Despite being subbed, he was quick to say that he is fine and will be available for the next match in a post-match interview. Whether the gaffer agrees or not, we will see. With two matches on deck where rest and rotation are a strong possibility, risking Rice’s health against Villa is a gamble that may not be worth taking.
OUT: Gabriel Magalhães (thigh), Kai Havertz (knee), Cristhian Mosquera (knee/ankle)
DOUBT: Declan Rice (calf), Leandro Trossard (calf), William Saliba (knock)
Predicted Lineups
Attack: Eze, Gyökeres, Saka
Mikel Arteta rested a few starters against Brentford, which is a rarity given the state of injuries and the fixture list. Eberechi Eze looked lively coming on late against the Bees, with Bukayo Saka scoring late to ice the match. I’d be inclined to assume Mikel Merino would start up top considering his form at the moment, but with Declan Rice’s availability in doubt, he may be better served in the midfield. If that’s the case, Viktor Gyökeres gets the start after coming off the bench against Chelsea and Brentford.
Midfield: Merino, Zubimendi, Ødegaard
Arsenal has been fortunate to keep their midfield solidity for as long as they have. Declan Rice finally ran himself into the ground against Brentford, which is incredibly frustrating and utterly predictable. Despite his own assurances, it’s safe to assume that do-everything CM Mikel Merino will slide into the 8 should Declan remain unavailable. He may not have Rice’s motor and mobility, but he is an excellent passer of the ball and will be tasked with being more of a glue-guy than a presser. If he slides back, then Arsenal get to start their Sociedad midfield trio between him, Martin Zubimendi, and Martin Ødegaard.
Defense: Calafiori, Hincapie, Saliba, Timber
Cristhian Mosquera’s injury against Brentford adds yet another worrying wrinkle to the backline. He and Piero Hincapie had been gelling well against the Bees before he was forced off in the first half. Arteta had previously said that William Saliba’s absence was more precautionary than anything, so here’s hoping he was being uncharacteristically forthright. The backline will be put to the test by a red-hot Villa attack, so Saliba’s composure will be massive. Jurrien Timber returns to the right after a shift at CB following Mosquera’s sub.
Keeper: Raya
David Raya was only tested once by Brentford, but he made sure to parry the close-range header with an impressive reflex save to help keep a clean sheet.
In this congested December fixture list, there is a light up ahead. The next two matches against Club Brugge and Wolves will be an opportunity to rest knackered players and give the deep bench a run out, which means it’s all hands on deck for Saturday once again. The Gunners have proven themselves time and again without several key players when the stakes have been at their highest. They don’t shy away from the spotlight, and if they are truly the champions they aspire to be, they will do what they’ve done all season and overcome injuries to grind out another favorable result to extend their unbeaten run to 19 matches.
WHO: Arsenal at Aston Villa
WHAT: Premier League match day 15
WHEN: Saturday, December 6th, 7:30am EST/4:30am PST/12:30pm GMT
WHERE: Villa Park, Birmingham
HOW TO WATCH: Broadcast live on the USA Network and Telemundo. Streaming on the NBC Sports app and NBCSports.com
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