The Cubs, seemingly headed to having home field in the first round of the 2026 postseason, have a no good, very bad, terrible week so far.
They’ve lost four of the five games played and scored just nine runs total — and that was in four of the games, as they got shut out in the fifth, the second game of Friday’s doubleheader.
In so doing, they went 5-for-51 with runners in scoring position, yikes. They had plenty of scoring opportunities and, well, just didn’t.
The pitching was pretty good, apart from
the 12th-inning meltdown Tuesday against the Marlins. In the other four games Cubs pitchers allowed a total of 10 runs.
None of that is good. But we do know the Cubs will still play a Wild Card Series beginning Tuesday against… someone, somewhere. Nothing is determined yet among the four teams still alive in the Wild Card race.
Here’s what has to happen in order for the Cubs to host a Wild Card Series.
First, the Cubs must win Sunday against the Red Sox at Tropicana Field. That would make their final record 89-73.
Next, the Padres would have to lose both their remaining games against the Diamondbacks. That would also make them 89-73.
That’s it. In that scenario, even if the Phillies won both of their remaining games against the Rays, if the two things above happened, there would then be a three-way tie at 89-73. The Cubs win that, since they won the season series against both the Phillies and Padres. In this scenario, the Cubs would host the Phillies, since they swept their season series against the Padres.
In the above scenario, if the Phillies go 1-1 or 0-2 against the Rays, the Diamondbacks would then be the No. 6 seed, because here’s where a tiebreaker gets complicated:
The two teams split their six head-to-head meetings this year, but the D-backs have a superior intra-divisional record, which is the second tiebreaker.
Now, let’s look at other possibilities for the Cubs.
If the Cubs win Sunday but the Padres split their two remaining games against Arizona, the Padres would host the Cubs, as the Cubs would then drop to the No. 5 seed. The D-backs would be the No. 6 seed in this scenario if the Phillies lose both their remaining games; otherwise the Phillies are No. 6 if they go 1-1 or 2-0.
If the Cubs lose Sunday to finish 88-74, they would still be the No. 5 seed unless the Phillies win both of their games against the Rays. If that happens, the Phillies would be No. 5 at 89-73, or No. 4 if the Padres lose both their remaining games, because the Phillies have the tiebreaker with San Diego. And if both the Phillies and Padres finish ahead of the Cubs… well, then, the Cubs would head to Atlanta for a Wild Card Series against the Braves beginning Tuesday.
So the Cubs could still potentially play at Wrigley Field, Petco Park or Truist Park for a best-of-three Wild Card Series beginning Tuesday.
Crazy? Sure. We’ll know much more after today’s games are played. There will be a game thread for you to follow along with today’s Phillies/Rays (6:15 p.m. CT) and Padres/Diamondbacks (7:40 p.m. CT) games. That thread will post at 5 p.m. CT.
