To some surprise, the D-backs have not folded since the trade deadline. Indeed, they are 8-4, which has sparked some chatter about us being “back in the wild-card race.” I’m here to pour cold water on that idea – at least, until proven otherwise. Arizona still sits three games below .500, at 59-62. We may have caught up with the Giants for third in the division, but the team still sits 5.5 games back of the final wild-card, currently owned by the Mets. The Cardinals and Reds also stand between the D-backs and that spot.
5.5 games may not sound much. But no NL team in the past fifty years have made the playoffs from fewer than sixty wins through 121 games.
The last such was the 1973 Mets, who were 55-66, then went 27-13 the rest of the way, to win the NL East with a mere 82 games. A couple of American League teams have managed it – most obviously, the Tigers last year, who were 58-63, and went 28-13 to sneak into the last wild-card place. So it is possible. But do you think the 2025 D-backs have that kind of streak in them? Recent results may give false reason to believe so. For the teams we have beaten – the Athletics, Rockies and Rangers – are currently all at or below .500, a limited challenge. The reality is, the last time Arizona won a series against a winning time was two months ago: June 13-15 against the Padres.
So, if the Diamomdbacks take three of four from Colorado this weekend, or even sweep to move back above .500, that would remain true, and not move the needle much. It’s the rest of the schedule which will be the challenge. Even before this series, the D-backs have the 7th-toughest remaining opposition. That will only go up when Arizona leaves Colorado, and they will likely have the hardest schedule among the wild-card contenders. The 13 games after are all against winning teams: at home against Cleveland and Cincinnati, then on the road against the Dodgers and Brewers. It’s going to be very tough to win over that stretch. But it’s likely the absolute bare minimum, if the team is to be considered as even the fringiest of fringe contenders the rest of the way.
