Obviously, things have changed considerably in the last 24 hours. The signing of Tatsuya Imai changes the pitching landscape considerably. So, one name that was included with the starters will now move to the bullpen. However, before we get there we need to take a step back and look at bases per out in some more detail. We’ve looked at it from the hitter’s perspective and we saw what happened with starting pitchers, but we didn’t discuss why it was important.
One of my colleagues compared BPO to WAR,
but that really isn’t a fair characterization. WAR includes both offense and fielding elements where BPO is purely offensive or pitching. It is probably closer to OPS and OPS against. For pitchers, it not only looks at hits but how much damage those hits do by including total bases. It is different because it also includes stolen bases against in the formula.
You will undoubtedly notice that the median BPO for pitchers is lower than that for hitters. This is because we only looked at starters with 10 or more starts and relievers with 30 or more innings. The median for relievers was .618 which is significantly lower than that for starters. A lot of traditionalists bemoan how starting pitchers are not able to go as far into games as they used to. The simple truth is that specialization has improved overall pitching performance. This is why bullpens are generally bigger and why they are hurling more relief innings overall.
Steven Okert
- BPO: .465
- Rank: 14th out of 242
- BPO+: 125
Okert was one of three prominent lefties in the bullpen that helped serve as their seventh inning man in the absence of a traditional one. Remember, the median was .618 for relievers. Okert represents one of the pitchers that Houston reclaimed in the lab. He has a 3.70 career ERA, so he has been functional, but expecting another brilliant season might not be wise. He had a 3,01 ERA in spite of the sparkling BPO which would explain why his FIP, xERA, and SIERA were lower than that mark. Most projection systems have him rated closer to his career ERA for 2026.
A.J. Blubaugh
- BPO: .531
- Rank: 37th out 242
- BPO+: 114
Blubaugh was listed as a starter in the last lab, but with the addition of Imai he can be stashed in the bullpen. This allows the Astros to bring Blubaugh along slowly. His 1.69 ERA was artificially low according to ERA estimates like FIP, xERA, and SIERA. Projection systems have him in the mid fours, but the Imai move allows the Astros to utilize him in different ways. He can start as a long reliever and move up to higher leveraged situations when he gets his feet under him.
Josh Hader
- BPO: .538
- Rank: 45th out of 242
- BPO+: 113
Unlike the others, Hader obviously has a stronger track record of success. His xERA was actually lower than his actual ERA even though the FIP and xFIP were higher. Projections have him not quite meeting last year’s numbers, but he is projected to be healthy.
Bryan Abreu
- BPO: .549
- Rank: 56 out of 242
- BPO+: 111
Abreu presents something of a problem. He is in his last year of arbitration and a likely extension candidate. Except relief pitchers are a notoriously poor long-term bet. The Astros have relied heavily on him since 2022 and he seemingly has leaked a little bit of oil every year (2.97, 3.23, 3.28, 3.43 xERAs since 2022). Abreu would normally represent a choice to either trade this offseason or extend. An extension feels like a bad bet, but the Astros normal track is to allow him to play out his contract and leave via free agency.
Bryan King
- BPO: .554
- Rank: 59th out of 242
- BPO+: 110
King came out of nowhere in 2024 after a career of bouncing around the minors. King was cast as a 7th and 8th inning guy last year when Hader was out. If he were cast as a middle reliever it would be more appropriate. Much like the others, he is projected to see his ERA backslide some. This is fairly normal for relievers as it is hard to predict from year to year what you will end up getting.
Bennett Sousa
- BPO: .566
- Rank: 75th out of 242
- BPO+: 108
Sousa is the third of the group of lefties last year that helped keep the Astros in the race. The Astros were 9th in runs allowed last season on the strength of their pen. Like many of the others, his 2025 season came out of nowhere as his 4.39 career ERA would indicate. Like the others, he is projected to see his ERA, FIP, and xERA backslide some.
Enyel de los Santos
- BPO: .662
- Rank: 162nd out of 242
- BPO+: 93
Unlike the others, de los Santos ERA estimates were actually lower than his actual ERA. His 2026 projections are actually a little better than his 2025 numbers, so there is hope here. However, there will be a roster crunch. If the Astros employ a six man rotation then they likely will use a seven man pen. We have already gone through six guys that are all considerably better than league average. That last spot could go somewhere else if they see someone with more upside.
Kaleb Ort
- BPO: .703
- Rank: 185th out of 242
- BPO+: 86
Ort is perfect example of how fungible relief pitching is. He was brilliant in 2024. The 33 year old had a 2.55 ERA and seemed like something we found in the lab. The truth is that performance changes from season to season and at the age of 33 he isn’t likely to suddenly find it. Projection systems have his ERA projected in the mid 4.00s. Every bullpen needs guys at the end that will just eat innings, but Ort might be caught up in the 40 man roster crunch.
Unqualified Candidates
The Astros added Roddery Munoz in the Rule V draft and Miguel Ullola will be candidates for the bullpen out of camp. Obviously, Ullola has options left since he has not made bis big league debut, so if there is not room for him they can simply send him back to Sugar Land. Munoz has to remain on the 26 man roster or be sent back. He is 2-7 with a 6.73 career ERA at the big league level, but managed a 3.28 ERA for AAA Louisville last season. If he shows upside he might end up pushing out de los Santos and Ort.
Ullola also has considerable upside as he had a 3.88 ERA in the notorious hitters league that is the Pacific Coast League. The Astros pen will have four lefties in it, so they are fairly desperate to have some strength on the right side behind Bryan Abreu. Munoz and Ullola could be darkhorse candidates in that competition in Spring Training.
