Week 1 of the NFL season is certain to bring unexpected outcomes.
For instance, the Seattle Seahawks fell short to the San Francisco 49ers in Sam Darnold’s first game last year before going on to win the Super Bowl. The New England Patriots, who also made the final two, suffered a loss in the opening week to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Our job today is to analyze which parts of the Los Angeles Rams’ stunning loss to the 49ers could be sustainable and which may be fake.
We only have real information from
a single game. The only certainty in the NFL is change. To an extent, we cannot rely on past seasons to predict outcomes in 2026. Some of the Rams’ shortcomings are probably very real. Some may be isolated to a game that required heavy travel and a unique schedule in addition to a division rival that knows them well and is always more competitive than expected.
The below areas are what I find to be most concerning in order to least concerning:
#1 – Quarterback play & Stafford’s limitations
It’s clear based on the reaction to this post that most Rams fans expect Matthew Stafford to bounce back after one of his worst games over his LA tenure. But what if he doesn’t? Quarterbacks can decline quickly and fall off a cliff.
This is THE most important position in football. Everything starts and ends with the quarterback. The Rams only have a “super team” if their signal caller plays at a high level.
It was always likely that Stafford would regress some from his MVP heights, largely because he reached that level for the first time after nearly 20 years in the NFL and because it is nearly impossible to repeat. No one was expecting regression to the extent we saw on Thursday night.
Stafford looked old. He was more immobile than we had ever seen from him. He held the ball longer, invited pressure, and passed up what the defense was giving him. As we saw on Wednesday night with Drake Maye, defenses this season will require opposing quarterbacks to be patient and take the underneath throw. It takes discipline and commitment to sustain that plan for 60 minutes. Neither Stafford nor Maye showed they were able to do that through one game.
We know Stafford isn’t mobile. Using his legs to mitigate pressure is not a realistic outcome. The tool he does have to minimize pressure is his mind and getting rid of the ball quickly—even if it means settling for shorter passes and going for the big play later.
Here’s proof of why the over-aggression was ill-fated and how Stafford can get back on track next time. Data from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
- On throws aimed 20+ yards down field: 0/3 with an interception/TWP
- 10-19 yards: 3/7 (42.9%) for 74 yards and a TWP*
- 0-9 yards: 10/12 (83.3%) for 63 yards and no turnover-worthy plays (TWP)
- Behind LOS: 2/2 (100%) for 18 yards
*(includes a 41-yard catch by Puka Nacua that was mostly YAC)
If there is a silver lining it’s that Stafford was still accurate in the short area of the field. However, this is not how Sean McVay and Stafford want to live. They don’t want to be hyper efficient. They prefer going for the kill shot and finding explosives through the air.
Can they course correct?
#2 – Myles Garrett’s knee
Myles Garrett played 40 snaps, which comprised 62% of the total 65 defensive plays. That is not his normal workload and the broadcast suggested he looked gassed after missing recent practices with a knee injury. LA has maintained that Garrett’s knee issue and absence from practices have mostly been a matter of veteran treatment and keeping him ready for the season. It’s also true that Garrett was brought in for playoff success. Not Week 1.
But the Rams traded Jared Verse and a treasure chest of draft capital for the star pass rusher. In order to reap the benefits of the trade he needs to be on the field. I would expect his snap count to increase over time, although I can’t shake the feeling that there’s more to this knee injury than the team is letting on.
We also cannot ignore the fact that Garrett was primarily aligned with the best left tackle in football: Trent Williams. While Garrett has gotten the better of Williams in the past, a limited offensive scheme (we will get to that later) also took away opportunities for Garrett to affect the game.
I’m more worried about Garrett than I was last week. The concern isn’t regarding performance but more availability. It’s something we will need to track over the coming weeks.
#3 – Staying on schedule offensively & 13 personnel
The 49ers had great success on first down, which put LA behind the chains and setup less favorable looks on second and third down. LA converted just two of nine third downs against the 49ers. That won’t get the job done.
But the bigger problem is that trailing on the scoreboard and being behind the chains limits LA’s approach from a personnel standpoint. The 13 personnel wrinkle has brought a significant advantage to LA; however, it offers little upside on second and third and long or when you need to mount a comeback.
The Rams were significantly less effective in 11 personnel than when they had three tight ends on the field. This graphic is from SumerSports.
Game script forced the Rams into 11 personnel on 56.1% of plays. They were in 12 personnel 7% of the time and spent 36.8% of their plays in 13. This played right into San Francisco’s hand.
The lack of effectiveness with three receivers and a single tight end may underscore LA’s need for a third receiver and the idea that Davante Adams could take a step back from 2025. This was a looming concern in the offseason, although LA did not make a high-profile receiver addition. Do they have enough firepower if they aren’t playing with a lead?
#4 – Jaylen Watson’s debut
The Rams brought in Jaylen Watson in order to add much-needed size to the corner room and limit bigger receivers. Mike Evans got the best of him on an end zone fade. That cannot happen.
Trent McDuffie immediately proved his value but defending multiple passes in the first quarter and stuffing an early screen play. Watson’s impact was less visible, although this wasn’t a disaster of a game.
The outcome still fell below expectations. He needs to perform better in the upcoming games.
#5 – Scheming around LA’s pass rushers & lack of pressure
In comparison to the numbers outlined for Stafford above, 82.4% of Brock Purdy’s passes came either within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. 12 attempts (35.3%) were behind the line. Purdy was not asked to win this game. He was mostly playing point guard. It worked to great effect.
Most offenses won’t be able to sustain production against the Rams’ defense. The 49ers’ have strong scheme and YAC players that are uniquely equipped to run such a limited offensive game plan.
I feel this is one of the least sustainable parts of the Rams’ loss, although similar outcomes could re-occur in the second game against San Francisco or versus teams like the Seahawks.
#6 – Ending up in the losing column
Being a historical betting favorite to win the Super Bowl doesn’t guarantee you a championship. It does, however, suggest that the floor is very high. The Rams will likely make the playoffs and earn a berth in the tournament. Whatever happens from that point is up to them.
Dropping a game to a division rival is unfortunate. It doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things. LA can still take the second contest against San Francisco which will help in tie breakers. The season is far from over after the first game.
