It is not uncommon for hitters to struggle initially when they reach the big leagues. Alex Bregman hit 2-for-38 in his first ten games. George Brett hit .125 in 13 games when he was first called up. Aaron Judge hit .179/.263/.345 in his first month in the big leagues.
Jac Caglianone was another such rookie who struggled out of the gate, hitting .147/.205/.208 with five home runs in 41 games before he was placed on the Injured List with a hamstring injury. He returned in September, but it has been
much of the same – he’s hitting just .176 this month with one home run.
Eventually, small sample sizes become not-so-small anymore. Jac Caglianone now has 202 plate appearances at the big league level and is hitting .152/.228/.277. For all rookies in their debut season, his batting average is the lowest for any hitter with at least 200 plate appearances in the expansion era. He has the tenth-worst OPS+ for any debut season since 1960.
That’s a lower OPS+ than David Howard, Brett Eibner, Mendy Lopez, or Nicky Lopez in their debut season.
Some of these players went on to have fine MLB careers. Brandon Inge struggled for a few years but eventually became a 5 WAR player and an All-Star. Cristian Guzmán was a two-time All-Star at shortstop. Jack Wilson had a 12-year career as an All-Star shortstop. But those players all excelled with their glove – Jac is out there for his bat. If we limit the list to just rookies at traditional power positions (1B, 3B, LF, RF), Jac is the second-worst.
The common culprit for rookie struggles, particularly for power hitters, is an inability to make contact. Big league velocity and breaking balls are often a separator between Triple-A and the Majors. But that hasn’t been the case for Jac Caglianone. His 21.8 percent strikeout is below the league average of 22.1.
Instead, the problem is that Caglianone is pounding the ball into the ground. That makes it hard to hit home runs! Among all hitters with 200 plate appearances, Caglianone is 30th in baseball, hitting 49.8 percent of balls on the ground. He’s hitting just .171 on groundballs, 21st-worst in baseball for anyone with at least 50 groundballs. Hitting poorly on groundballs doesn’t mean you can’t be productive – Salvador Perez is hitting just .117 on grounders (second-worst in baseball). But Salvy has only hit 34 percent of balls on the ground – he’s elevating and driving the ball more than Jac.
He has been robbed of a few home runs by playing in a spacious park – last night he hit a flyball that would have been a home run in 25 of 30 Major League ballparks, but was an out at the K. But he’s hitting just .171 on the road, and playing in the most home-run friendly park would only give him an additional three home runs, according to Baseball Savant.
A lot of his struggles may be attributable to just plain bad luck. Caglianone has some of the best exit velocity numbers in baseball, so his ability to hit the ball hard is not in question. But he has an expected batting average of .257, based on his batting data. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, he has the widest gulf in baseball between his batting average and expected batting average, and it’s not even close.
So is he the victim of bad luck or is there reason for concern with Jac Caglianone?
I wouldn’t be too alarmed yet, since many of the underlying metrics look pretty good for Caglianone. He’s not striking out, he’s squaring up, and he’s hitting the ball hard – eventually, those balls will find holes in the defense. He could stand to elevate the ball more and get that home run number up, but it is encouraging that he doesn’t seem overwhelmed by Major League pitching.
It is frustrating to see Caglianone struggle while rookies like Nick Kurtz amaze with their performance. The tools are there for Jac – the contact quality, the patience, and the power potential. The question is simply whether the results catch up. The Royals don’t have the luxury of slow development from their middle-of-the-order hitters. Caglianone doesn’t need to be a star tomorrow, but he does need to turn hard contact into real production soon. If he does, the Royals’ lineup looks competent, perhaps even dangerous. If he doesn’t, they may be left searching for answers yet again.
