One down. The (relative) calm before the storm continues on as the Michigan Wolverines go through a two-week stretch as heavy favorites before running into a gauntlet of equally talented giants. Up next
in this four-game slate is a trip to Columbus as the Ohio State Buckeyes will be looking for revenge after falling in Ann Arbor a couple Fridays ago.
While some do not like the idea of two of the three two-play slots locked into rivalry games each year, sports are just more fun when the stakes are a little bit higher. Currently sitting precariously on the bubble, there is nothing Ohio State would like more than to significantly bolster its resume by knocking off its No. 2-ranked bitter rival. Michigan is the favorite here, but do not expect anything easy.
No. 2 Michigan (21-1, 11-1) at Ohio State (15-7, 7-5)
Date & Time: Sunday, Feb. 8, 1 p.m. ET
Location: Value City Arena, Columbus, OH
TV/Streaming: CBS
The first game was uncomfortably close for 30-plus minutes, with the Buckeye actually leading with 10 minutes left in the game. Michigan pulled away late and won by 12, getting 18 points (and 9 rebounds and 4 assists) from Yaxel Lendeborg, interior production from Morez Johnson and Aday Mara, and impressive defense from across the roster, particularly late.
Two Stats to Watch
Michigan 2PT Shooting: 62.7% (1st B1G)
Old reliable was on display against Penn State (67.6%), and just about every conference game except for the win over Michigan State has featured impressive shooting inside the arc. That was certainly the case against Ohio State last time, as the Wolverines converted a ridiculous 75.9% of their attempts. This helped offset a pretty cold 5-for-23 effort from deep, but as we have discussed before, those sort of outputs seem much more likely than the hot long-range shooting on Thursday.
Ohio State is 12th defensively in conference play, but has been the fourth-worst against two-point shooting, which is a bad combination here. Last time, Michigan took 24 of its 29 two-point shots at the rim and converted 24 of those, and even 4 of 5 jumpers went in. There is no reason to deviate from this plan, and the Buckeyes are coming off four straight games where opponents have feasted in this department (66.4%).
Michigan’s worst enemy would be the temptation to keep launching from three unnecessarily. Ohio State is decent at three prevention, while the Wolverines are very volatile. The real issue is the opportunity cost: when twos are falling at such a high clip, taking shots from deep just is not worth the trade off. Michigan still attempts plenty of threes a game, but it must lean into the mismatch down low again.
Ohio State Adj. Offense: 4th B1G (22nd overall)
The reason Ohio State is on the edge of NCAA Tournament conversation is the offense. There is not really a singular area that jumps out — each of Kenpom’s four factors rank between fifth and ninth in conference play — so really this is just an all-around solid attack. The Buckeyes do not heavily favor threes, and can move the ball well but do not rack up a ton of assists, doing all this at an average tempo.
What is working then? Definitely Bruce Thornton, who ranks 13th nationally in ORtg thanks to his 63.6% effective field goal rate. He has made 40% of his threes this year, as has John Mobley (41.2%), who is the other volume shooter from deep. In general, though, Ohio State will try to find mismatches then drive to the rim, though plenty attempts will come from the midrange too.
In Ann Arbor, this approach was simply not sufficient against the Michigan defense. Thornton scored just 10 points (after logging 20-plus in his previous three games) and the Buckeyes were merely average from two (50.0%) and three (29.7%). Nothing came easily in that game, and unless the home team is able to convert a disproportionate number of tough looks, I think history repeats itself on Sunday.
