As of this morning, the NCAA Tournament picture looks like this, based on NPI and conference standings. Please note that projected conference tournament winners are in italics and are based on current in-conference point percentage:
Locks (8): Michigan State, Michigan, North Dakota, Western Michigan, Penn State, Quinnipiac, Providence, Denver
Safe (4): Minnesota-Duluth, Cornell, Dartmouth, UConn, St. Thomas
Bubble In (2): Boston College, Wisconsin
Automatic Qualifier (1): Bentley
My projected bracket
looks like this:
Loveland Regional
- Michigan State vs. Bentley
- Denver vs. Dartmouth
Albany Regional
- Western Michigan vs. St. Thomas
- Penn State vs. UConn
Worcester Regional
- Michigan vs. Boston College
- Providence vs. Cornell
Sioux Falls Regional
- North Dakota vs. Wisconsin
- Quinnipiac vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Some things to note here:
- If this is the bracket Penn State draws, I will take it with no questions asked. With a 1-6-1 record against Michigan and Michigan State this season and now down Dane Dowiak for the rest of the season, any draw for the Nittany Lions that avoids those two teams is ideal.
- Per the Probability Matrix, the only teams with a realistic chance of gaining an at-large berth are already in the field. Bubble teams Boston College and Wisconsin will be rooting for chalk in conference tournaments.
- Denver and Quinnipiac have reached lock status. Both the Pioneers and Bobcats are in position for a two seed. Quinnipiac has lost just once in regulation since New Year’s Day.
- Dartmouth has slowly slid down the pecking order in the last couple of months. The Big Green have a home game against Quinnipiac next Friday, but a slip-up in any of their other three games could allow Boston College or Wisconsin to get some more breathing room.
- The top seed will be very valuable in this field, as the No. 2 and No. 3 overall seeds will likely be matched up against struggling-but-talented Boston College and Wisconsin.
Key Games This Weekend
No. 2 Michigan at No. 15 Wisconsin- Friday (8pm on Big Ten Plus) and Saturday (7pm on Big Ten Plus)
- The Badgers will likely need to go 2-2 against Michigan and Penn State to feel good about their NCAA Tournament chances. A split against Michigan would have them in line for that goal, but the margin for error is growing slim.
No. 12 UConn vs. No. 14 Boston College- Friday at UConn (7pm on ESPN+), Saturday at BC (3pm on ESPN+)
- Both of these teams are in solid position to make the field, but neither have secured a bid just yet. The winner of this series is likely safe.
No. 10 Cornell at No. 6 Quinnipiac- Friday (7pm on ESPN+)
- Cornell would likely assure itself of an NCAA bid with a road win over Quinnipiac. This game is the final major hurdle for the Big Red in the regular season.
