Halfway through September, and the college football landscape is already dramatically changing from what was being predicted this summer. While seven of the teams that were in the top 10 of the AP Poll in Week 1 remain so, the order has been shuffled, except for Penn State, which remains firmly entrenched in the AP’s No. 2 spot. For now.
That’s also shifting our view on some of the potential quarterbacks available for this draft. We track it all so you don’t have to. Let’s dive in.
Riser of the Week
Fernando Mendoza
The result: Indiana
State 0 — Indiana 73
The stats: 19-20 (95.0%), 270 yards, 5 TD, 1 Big Time Throws, 0 Turnover Worthy Plays, 8.6 ADoT, 0 sacks
6 rushes, 19 yards, 3.2 ypc, 1 TD
Indiana has been taking advantage of an easy opening slate of non-conference games to get the team in rhythm, and the exclamation point on that was a thorough beatdown of Indiana State, an FCS school. While we can’t crown Mendoza as QB1 for putting up huge numbers against a small school, it is a breath of fresh air compared to some of his peers in this quarterback class. A team that was in the college football playoffs just a year ago, now with a potential first-rounder at quarterback, SHOULD be putting up video game numbers against teams from a lower level of competition.
Mendoza looks comfortable in the Hoosiers’ offense, and now the real test begins. This week, they begin Big Ten play, against a Top-10 opponent to boot. We’ll be watching Mendoza with great interest this weekend.
Next up: hosting No.9 Illinois
Another rough week for our summer’s top five
Cade Klubnik
The result: Clemson 21 — Georgia Tech 24
The stats: 15-26 (57.7%), 207 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 BTTs, 1 TWP, 8.5 ADoT, 0 sacks
17 rushes, 57 yards, 3.4 ypc, 1 TD, 2 fumbles
Next up: hosting Syracuse
Garrett Nussmeier
The result: Florida 10 — LSU 20
The stats: 15-27 (55.6%), 220 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 BTT, 1 TWP, 6.5 ADoT, 0 sacks
Next up: hosting Southeastern Louisiana
Drew Allar
The result: Villanova 6 — Penn State 52
The stats: 16-29 (55.2%), 209 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 BTT, 2 TWP, 11.1 ADoT, 0 sacks
2 rushes, 18 yards, 9.0 YPC
Next up: off week, then hosting Oregon on Sept. 27
Arch Manning
The result: UTEP 10 — Texas 27
The stats: 11-25 (44.0%), 114 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0 BTT, 1 TWP, 7.0 ADoT, 0 sacks
10 rushes, 46 yards, 4.6 YPC, 2 TD, 1 fumble
Next up: hosting Sam Houston
LaNorris Sellers
The result: Vanderbilt 31 — South Carolina 7
The stats: 6-7 (85.7%), 94 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 BTT, 1 TWP, 9.3 ADoT, 1 sack
3 rushes, -6 yards, -2.0 YPC (Did not return after halftime with concussion)
Next up: at No. 23 Missouri, Sellers’ status is questionable
Summary: We’ll start with Sellers, who was off to a decent start before taking a hit to the head just before the end of the first half. The stat line is a bit misleading; two of Sellers’ rushing attempts gained positive yards, but a low, off-target snap that got behind Sellers was counted against his rushing stats and drove him into negative yardage. His turnover was a bit fluky, too. Sellers had driven South Carolina to the red zone when he failed to see the defensive tackle dropping back into the passing lane. South Carolina was down 14-7 when Sellers took the hit to the head, and they were unable to do anything without him. It’s an unfortunate break for the Gamecocks, who had climbed to No. 11 in the AP poll, but have now fallen out of the Top-25 entirely, while Vanderbilt has climbed to No. 20.
Nussmeier never looked in rhythm against Florida, and at times I thought his footwork got very sloppy. He had a few throws where he was fading off his back foot, others throwing across his body — including his late interception — and in general did not have one of his better games. LSU did enough to win, but Nussmeier has yet to have a multi-touchdown game this season.
Klubnik and Clemson are off to a disastrous start, and there isn’t any other way to put it. With all of the talent Clemson assembled, especially on defense, they were expected to be in the running for the national title. Now, after just three weeks, their back is against the wall, and they will need to have a dramatic shift in play if they even want to sniff the playoffs. Everything on offense looks hard and laborious. No quarterback’s draft stock has perhaps taken a bigger hit than Klubnik, who isn’t necessarily playing as badly as some of the other fallers on our list, but Clemosn hasn’t been able to figure out its struggles in pass protection, and so far Klubnik has not been able to elevate this out-of-sync Clemson offense
Allar continues to give me the ick. With Penn State hanging 52 points on a basketball school, you’d think Allar’s numbers would be more impressive. They just aren’t, and he’s faced minimal pressure so far this year, being kept clean in 82.5% of his dropbacks. The real tests are coming soon, with a game against Oregon looming after a bye week.
As for Arch, this is a young man who looks like he’s feeling the weight of the world and all of his high expectations. A sub-45% completion percentage against lowly UTEP says a lot, and I’m all but ready to put his draft stock away for the year. He’s going to have to have a Herculean turnaround to convince me, and likely NFL scouts, that he won’t need another year of college seasoning in 2026.
Bits and bobs
- Oregon’s Dante Moore continues to impress. He didn’t get many votes this summer in our QB Dating Game series because he’d played so little, and all the way back in 2023 at that. But so far, he’s showing that the year he spent in Oregon’s system in 2024 was not wasted. Oregon easily handled its road contest against Northwestern, 34-14. Through three games, Moore is completing 78.1% of his passes for 657 yards and seven touchdowns against just one interception. Oregon’s gotten up big quickly in each game, which might even be muting his production with the Ducks rarely needing to pass in the second half of games thus far. They’ll play in-state rival Oregon State (sorry, Ryland!) this weekend before a big showdown with Penn State on September 27.
- I’m still not sure I’m buying the Carson Beck revival, but Miami is rolling early and is generating a lot of buzz. The Hurricanes have climbed to No. 4 in the AP poll, and Beck’s mostly steady play through three weeks is certainly part of the reason. He looked comfortable against Notre Dame to open the year, and Miami rolled over No. 18 Southern Florida. If I had to make an early NFL comp, both Becks’ highs and lows are reminiscent of Jared Goff to me. Beck has a smidge more mobility than Goff, but he’s capable of dazzling you with some of his downfield throws in one series, and then dumbfounding you with some of his mistakes, especially under pressure. Beck got away with several tight window throws in this game, but also threw a pair of interceptions.
- John Mateer didn’t play his best game against Temple, but the Sooners didn’t need him to as they cruised to a 42-3 win. He has another huge “Prove-It” game this weekend as No. 11 Oklahoma hosts No. 22 Auburn. We’ll be sure to follow up on his performance next week.
- Sawyer Robertson and Baylor won 42-7 against Samford, but I continue to be skeptical of Robertson, who threw two interceptions in this game and only had 211 passing yards while completing just 62.2% of his passes. Robertson is just too steaky for my liking, even though he possesses the prototypical size you’d like in a quarterback prospect.
- Aidan Chiles and Jayden Maiava were two of my favorite sleeper prospects heading into 2025, and they’ve gotten off to great starts. Chiles has the Spartans off to a 3-0 start and has thrown for 656 yards, six touchdowns against one interception, while completing 71.6% of his passes, and adding 186 yards and a score on the ground. Likewise, Maiava has thrown for 989 yards, six touchdowns with no interceptions, while completing 68.6% of his passes, and has two rushing touchdowns. Maiava and USC are also 3-0 and will host Michigan State this weekend.
- Taylen Green and Arkansas didn’t come away with the victory last weekend against then No. 17 Ole Miss, but I came away wildly impressed with the fifth-year senior. The Razorbacks went into halftime trailing the Rebels 31-28 after an electric half of scoring. Both defenses clamped down in the second half, but Arkansas was driving with a chance to take the lead late when a Razorback wide receiver fumbled the ball away to close out the game 35-41 in Ole Miss’ favor. On the day, Green completed 62.9% of his passes for 305 yards and a touchdown, while adding 115 yards (8.2 YPC) and a score on the ground. I still wouldn’t put Green in the first round of the draft, but if he can keep stacking performances like this, he could force his way into the discussion.
- Sam Leavitt and Arizona State bounced back against Texas State. Leavitt played much more controlled, throwing for 2 touchdowns and another score on the ground, but he completed just 60.0% of his passes for less than 200 yards, and the disaster game against Mississippi State still lingers in my mind. His next four games come against Baylor, TCU, Utah, and Texas Tech. Strong showings in those games could help revive his draft stock.
- Two other quarterbacks to keep an eye on: Tennessee’s Joey Aguillar and Texas Tech’s Behren Morton.
- Aguillar and Tennessee had their first big game of the season and came up just short against Georgia. Aguillar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, but also had a pair of interceptions. The Vols were in position to win their first game against the Bulldogs since 2016, but a missed field goal near the end of regulation sent the game to overtime, where Georgia walked it off with a touchdown after Tennessee only managed to kick a field goal. I’m generally pretty skeptical of Tennessee quarterbacks and wide receivers because of Josh Heupel’s offensive system, which exploits spacing that doesn’t exist at the NFL level, but if Aguillar can maintain his high play, he’ll certainly generate some more interest.
- I’m also a bit skeptical of Morton, who missed games in 2023 with an undisclosed injury and then shut down his season early in 2024 with a shoulder injury. He also exited the opener this season with a lower-body injury, but hasn’t missed a start so far this season. He’s putting up video game numbers — completing 69.5% of his passes for 923 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just one interception — but Texas Tech hasn’t played anyone of note yet, having faced off against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State (sorry again, Ryland!). I also think his completion percentage is a bit deceptive, as I’ve had some concerns about his ball placement through three weeks. Listed at 6’2, 210 pounds, he’s also on the smaller side, which concerns me with his injury history and the knowledge that colleges usually juice their players’ listed heights and weights. Still, you put up the numbers he’s putting up, and it warrants further inspection.
What do you think of these prospects? Have any of them moved up your big board? Let us know in the comments!
