The Raiders sit at 2-7, there’s plenty of excuses, blame, and reasoning to go around on why they are sitting where they are. To start, the offense ranks 30th in yards/game, 27th in pass yds/game, 29th
in rush yds/game, and 31st in points/game. On offense, they are downright horrendous, however it goes farther than that. Defensively the team ranks 19th in opponent yds/game, 20th in pass/yds game allowed, 14th in rush/yds game allowed, and 25th in points/game allowed.
Defensively they rank 32nd in EPA, DVOA, and have missed the most tackles so there’s that also. The Raiders have struggled to get turnovers on defense, while they have also struggled to generate pressure ranking 29th in pressure rate this season which is significantly down from even last season where they ranked 15th missing Malcolm Koonce and Maxx Crosby for significant parts of the season. Their linebacker play hasn’t been up to standards and their offensive line has seen struggles.
The Raiders lack talent on offense and have a ton of youth as well, though they haven’t seen a ton of production from that side of the room either. One standard that has stayed a little true has been their well below average quarterback play. Geno Smith ranks 16th in yards, 24th in yds/attempt, 27th in average depth of target, 21st in yards/game, 19th in touchdowns, 19th in big time throw rate, 8th in turnover worthy play rate, 31st in QBR, and all while having the most interceptions in the NFL as well. The Raiders need to improve in a ton of areas, quarterback play does seem like a large area that fans are looking at, and with that their options may be limited.
Geno Smith:
Geno Smith is the Raiders quarterback in 2026 till a move is made to decide something different, that’s just the flat truth. Smith signed a 2 year, 75 million extension this April which also guaranteed 58.5 million of that contract. The Raiders smartly guaranteed his entire 2025 salary (40 million) and just 18.5 million of his 2026 salary which does make the contract moveable. In addition, the main thing of note is that Geno Smith’s contract will earn an additional 8.5 million in guarantees for 2026 if he’s on the roster for the third day of the 2026 league year so a decision about his future would need to be made before that. The Raiders can release Smith and save 8 million in cap space while taking on 18.5 million in dead cap, this would happen whether they release him as a pre or post 6/1 slate. If somehow, and I mean somehow, the Raiders could trade Smith before the 3rd day of the league year they’ll have all 26.5 million come off the books but that’s about as likely as Alex Leatherwood signing this off-season. Smith hasn’t exactly lived up to his contract, but the veteran quarterback has shown some signs of resurgence when he was able to stay protected behind the offensive line and work to target Brock Bowers. At just 26.5 million in cap space, there’s a possibility that Smith could stick around even as a veteran mentor to a rookie quarterback or another option going forward.
It’s worth noting that Geno Smith’s 2027 contract holds a cap hit of 39.5 million in cap space but he has no guaranteed money and the Raiders would likely move on following 2026 if they choose to hold him through. Las Vegas, could also choose to retain Smith as the starter and continue to build around the 35 year old in hopes of fulfilling some of their contract after cutting ties with other big ticket free agent contracts in recent years which include Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Gardner Minshew.
Free Agent Option: (All Stats do NOT include week 10)
If it doesn’t work the first time, try again, if it doesn’t work the second time, try again, and if it doesn’t hit the THIRD time (let me count Geno here please), then try again? The Raiders realistically could go with the free agent route yet again if they want to add another quarterback into the mix with Geno Smith, or if they want to add another to compete with Geno Smith going forward. The 2026 free agent class features notable names including Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, and Daniel Jones to headline the main names. That said however, Rodgers and Flacco could choose to retire, and the 41 year old Flacco really doesn’t do much for the Raiders future. Daniel Jones has looked impressive with the Colts, though you’d expect he doesn’t leave Indianapolis under any situation. Outside of those three, we can see some relatively decent other options including Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota, and Russell Wilson.
Wentz is coming from the Vikings, who revived the careers of Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones last off-season though Wentz struggled a little this season in his limited action logging a 65% completion rate, 1216 yards, 6 touchdowns, five interceptions, and 57 rushing yards. Wentz showed some flashes of his Eagles style though he overall seemed as the backup quarterback option he’s been of recent. Mariota had his time with the Raiders and seems to be the perfect backup option in Washington, though with likely a full season of starting he could test the market to find some extra money and a possible starting option. Mariota has logged a 64% completion, 639 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions while adding 122 rushing yards and an interception. Russell Wilson would only make sense if the Raiders move on from Pete Carroll as the two of them had a rough separation from their Seattle days. Wilson has a 59% completion rate, 786 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions this season. There’s also other options such as Tyrod Taylor and Tyler Huntley but in reality do those two really provide much going forward if your hope of a FA is stable quarterback play and the possibility of a career resurgence.
A Rookie (Starter or Development):
The Raiders hold the 6th overall selection, and after outlining this option already I’ll run down quickly on their rookie options. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson are the seemingly top quarterback options in the 2026 draft with Oregon’s Dante Moore also a possible option if he decides to declare though reports indicate he’s likely to return to school. Along with Moore, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers is likely returning to school which eliminates another quarterback option. Outside Mendoza and Simpson who show good NFL traits, arm talent, and high levels of IQ the Raiders could explore some options such as Oklahoma’s John Mateer, Cincinnati’s Brennan Sorsby, and North Dakota State’s Cole Payton who all show the traits of being an NFL quarterback but all three are also going to need time to sit and develop.
The Raiders have to earn a top 2-3 selection if they want to select one of Mendoza or Simpson and if they miss out on both of them, then the options become a little more slim and likely fall into the world of taking one of Mateer, Sorsby, or Payton in the top of round two if they plan to add a high drafted rookie quarterback option. Overall, the Raiders rookie options remain rather thin, and they’ll need to continue to lose along with having other teams win if that’s the route they want to go with an instant starter. In terms of the development options, they’re not bad quarterbacks but the Raiders can’t start them week one and expect not only quality play but good development going forward.
Trades: (All Stats do NOT include week 10)
While it’s never a known who’s going to be on the block, but the Raiders could have trade options including Jaguars Trevor Lawrence, Cardinals Kyler Murray, 49ers Mac Jones, Falcons Kirk Cousins, and Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa. Lawrence has struggled this season and overall hasn’t really lived up to his first overall draft selection. The 26 year old signed an extension but does have a moveable contract, though with a 60% completion rate, 1840 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions there’s a lot of questions on how much the Jaguars could expect in return especially with how expensive Lawrence will be going forward. Lawrence holds a ton of talent, but so far he’s not lived up to his draft status in year 5 and is trending towards being an average or below average starter. Weirdly the Cardinals have a path to move on from former 1st overall pick Kyler Murray, who’s been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL outside this season where he’s logging a 68% completion rate, 962 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in 5 games along with 173 rushing yards and a touchdown. Murray is an exceptional dual threat quarterback and at just 28 years old has shown a lot of consistency and high level quarterback play but also very average play as well. The Raiders could be interested in pursuing a veteran quarterback with good experience though Murray would also be expensive.
Tagovailoa hasn’t been amazing this season, and like Lawrence hasn’t lived up to his draft level. The former Alabama product has struggled at times this season along with struggling at points his whole career. In addition, Tagovailoa has a notable injury history that has to be a risk, especially for a team lacking an elite offensive line. The Raiders likely would be given an amazing discount and possibly earning additional draft compensation going back their way to take Tagovailoa off the Dolphins hands due to his contract, which could be an intriguing option. Touching on Kirk Cousins briefly, he’s barely played of recent and hasn’t been moved yet for a reason, and I don’t’ see that changing especially given his contract. Like Tagovailoa, former Alabama QB Mac Jones has seen a nice resurgence for the 49ers this season in place of Brock Purdy logging a 67% completion rate, 10 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Jones is in year one of a two year, 8.5 million contract and despite his 64:49 TD/INT ratio in his career could be showing signs of a career resurgence in a very QB friendly system that will help him to possibly rebound in another system similar to Darnold and Daniel Jones. Mac Jones would be risky, but likely not too expensive.
A Combination:
The most realistic option, and mainly involving a rookie. The Raiders have the option to retain Geno Smith and add a rookie quarterback to compete with him. Either Smith successfully retains his starting job in 2026 while the rookie sits, develops, and learns to take over in 2027 which would be the ideal situation for likely both sides unless the Raiders land one of Simpson/Mendoza who would push for the starting spot immediately. The other option involves that same rookie quarterback route but the team decides to add a free agent/low end trade to add depth to the room while relying on the rookie to be the guy going forward. Geno Smith isn’t a Raiders fan favorite, he’s struggled heavily at times though the Raiders entire offense has been poor in numerous areas and they lack a ton of talent in the receiving room and on the offensive line. The Raiders priority if they add a rookie in any capacity needs to be improving the surrounding talent on the OL, WR, and on defense to help supplement their development.
