We are slowly, but surely, approaching the end of the 2026 Mountain West Football regular season, with only three weeks left. We’re in the final turn, so let’s end these best bets on a strong note! I wasn’t a big fan of this slate as it pertains to picking these, but without further ado, here is our Week 11 best bets!
(All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Matt’s record: 20-14, +3.8 units
New Mexico o30.5 points v. UNLV (-128):
Skinny: Yes, taking this juiced of a line is lame. I don’t think this is a good spot for the Runnin’ Rebels
after two disappointing games the last two weeks — yes, I know they beat Northern Illinois, but they were doing everything they can to give the Huskies that game. NIU just wasn’t good enough to capitalize. UNLV’s defense has been a tire fire recently. Heading back home with an offense that’s rolling, I think this is a favorable spot for New Mexico, who is averaging 32.8 points over their last six weeks and ranks in the top-70 in EPA/play for the season.
Wyoming/UTEP u39.5 (-105):
Skinny: Wyoming was dealt a huge blow this week with quarterback Tyler Hughes suffering a forearm injury without a timetable for a return. The Pokes were playing their best ball of the season, and now will likely start Landon Sims if Hughes is unable to play (technically, they haven’t officially ruled him out at the time of publishing … but my assumption is that his availability, or lack thereof, is baked into the line).
UTEP, meanwhile, has struggled to score all season, averaging just 14.1 points and failing to score more than 14 points each of the last four weeks. While there are areas to expose in Wyoming’s defense, I don’t think see this being a high-scoring shootout.
North Dakota State -6.5 v. Hawai’i (-115):
Skinny: This is North Dakota State’s BLANK trip to the islands. I try my best to stay away from these spots. And Hawaii’s box score last week against UTEP was quite deceiving. They may have scored just 17 points, but had 27 first downs and north of 420 yards of offense. Still, I’m baking the Bison off the bye week. Hawaii offense has fared better of late, but the Bison are holding teams to just 341 yards and 11.3 points over the last six weeks.
