Every year, there is one prospect in the Yankees system in whom I am irrationally invested. Sometimes it pays off. For example, I was along for the ride with 2016 Dustin Fowler. Other years, not so much … everyone take a moment please for all the seasons I spent conducting the Luis Medina Hype Train.
This year, for my money, it’s the man they call Elmer. Acquired from Boston in December 2024 along with international bonus money in exchange for catcher Carlos Narváez, Rodríguez climbed all the way
from High-A ball to get a cup of coffee at Triple-A by season’s end. His results were enough that he comes into 2026 firmly ensconced in sundry top prospect lists. MLB Pipeline has him at #82, while Baseball Prospectus (#60) and Baseball America (#59) are even higher on the right-hander.
Although he may not appear in the Bronx at all this season, he is right on the doorstep. After a great 2025 and an excellent 2026 spring—including a nails outing at the World Baseball Classic—Rodríguez won’t sneak up on anyone.
2025 Stats (High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A): 27 G (26 GS), 11-8, 2.58 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 150 IP, 29.0 K%, 9.4 BB%, .190 BAA
A few things jump out about Rodríguez’s performance last season. To begin, it was almost impossible to drive his pitches in the air. He notched a 54.5-percent groundball rate and allowed only three home runs in 150 innings last season. I suspect that latter is unsustainable but it also suggests he isn’t going to just start allowing gopher balls all the time.
Moreover, the “stuff” is there. He sits in the mid-90s with his fastballs, with the ability to heat it up into the upper 90s. Meanwhile, he features four other offerings: a slider, a curveball, a changeup, and a cutter. FanGraphs, who recently slotted Elmer in as the Yankees’ second-best prospect, are believers in the slider and curve, assigning each of the pitches a 50 on the 20-80 scales, with upward future projections on both.
We’ve gotten good looks at Rodríguez already in 2026. He earned the nod as the starter for the first game of spring training against the Orioles. Three shutout innings later, he was back in the dugout with nary a free pass marring his ledger, the walk having been a bit of a bugaboo for Rodríguez in the past. Backstop Austin Wells said after the game: “He mixed it really well, hit the spots when he needed to, and got some big groundballs. He’s got a lot of really good pitches. He’s got the talent. He’s just got to go do it.”
Elmer made one more appearance for the Yankees then headed to the WBC where he pitched for Puerto Rico. Facing Cuba on March 9th, he tossed three scoreless in international best-on-best, whiffing three.
The Yanks recently optioned Rodríguez back to minor-league camp, but that should be no surprise. Even with the injuries to Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt, the Yankee rotation is basically sorted out to start the season, with Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, Luis Gil, and Ryan Yarbrough on the 26-man roster.
But with attrition rates what they are with pitchers, numbers 6-10 in the rotation depth chart increasingly take on outsized importance. With Elmer already on the 40-man roster, he’s likely pretty darned close to Next Man Up if something happens, and Schlittler demonstrated just last year what can happen when opportunity strikes.
As it stands, Elmer will almost certainly start the season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre — potentially even starting their season opener on March 27th in Buffalo. And that’s fine. Only 22 years old, Rodríguez has made a grand total of two starts there (including one in the International League playoffs), after just 11 starts at Double-A. That’s not a whole lot of reps above A-ball. With any luck, the Yankees don’t actually need him this season and he’s able to spend the majority of 2026 working on his pitches and refining his mechanics. If there is one point of concern in his scouting report, it is command.
FanGraphs notes “some of the markers in his delivery… hint that he’s going to work regions more than hit spots. Perhaps he’ll grow into a half-grade more command than we’re projecting if he stays healthy and accumulates reps…” Getting the chance to accumulate those reps and see if he can elevate his ceiling sounds just fine to me.
If Elmer debuts this season, here’s hoping it’s solely because he’s been too brilliant to hold down any longer. Otherwise, let’s see what he can do with a full season at Triple-A.
See more of the Yankees Previews series here.
