Despite the loss yesterday, let’s not let Andrew Alvarez’s performance go unnoticed. The unheralded former 12th round pick has had a great start to his MLB career. Will this last, who knows, but it is time to give Alvarez a shout out. He has been playing some inspired baseball since coming to the MLB and the fans are noticing.
Yesterday, Andrew Alvarez had the best start of his young career. He went six scoreless innings, scattering three hits
and a walk, while striking out five. Only one of those hits left the infield as well. The other two came on a bunt and a swinging bunt. It was a weak Pirates lineup, but Alvarez still carved them up.
One thing I like about Alvarez is that he is able to throw any pitch at any time. A problem I have had with Nats pitchers this year is that they can become predictable. When they fall behind, hitters know the fastball is coming. However, that is not the case with Alvarez.
He has a balanced pitch mix. Yesterday, he threw 29 fastballs, 24 sliders, 22 curveballs and 10 changeups. That balance has been there in all his starts. Overall, he has thrown 85 4-seamers, 70 curveballs, 68 sliders, 20 changeups and 10 sinkers. He does not throw any pitch more than 33.6% of the time.
This is something I think guys like Mitchell Parker and Jake Irvin need to learn if they want to stick in the league. If you do not have over powering stuff, you need to mix things up. Over the last couple years, pitchers have started to use deeper arsenals and throw any pitch in any count. Alvarez is a guy who does that.
With a fastball that averages 91.4 MPH, Alvarez does it out of necessity. He knows he can’t throw his heater 50% of the time. Importantly, Alvarez also has a very good feel for spin and effective breaking balls too. In his first few starts, you have not seen him hang many of his breaking balls.
This balanced arsenal has led to a ton of success. In his first three starts, Alvarez has a 1.15 ERA across 15.2 innings. The only National with a lower ERA in their first three career starts was Tanner Roark. If Alvarez is anything close to Roark, that would be a massive win.
There are still plenty of limitations in Alvarez’s game and there is a reason he was not a top prospect. He is not a big strikeout guy, fanning 17.7% of hitters so far. Without big stuff, Alvarez has a tendency to nibble at times, which is why he is walking nearly 10% of hitters so far.
Obviously, he will come back to earth at some point. In his small sample size, the advanced metrics are not quite sure what to make of all this. His FIP, xFIP and xERA all tell pretty different stories.
The expected ERA stat on Baseball Savant actually likes a lot of what he is doing. Alvarez’s xERA is at 2.70. That is due to his ability to suppress hard contact. He is avoiding barrels, getting a ton of ground balls and doing things that would allow a pitcher to sustain a low batting average against.
The xFIP numbers are more bearish. His xFIP is actually at 4.46. That is due to the lack of strikeouts and higher walk numbers. His .136 BABIP and 94.8 LOB% are seen as highly unsustainable. Alvarez’s FIP is somewhere in the middle at 3.72.
Honestly, even if Alvarez could pitch to an ERA in the mid 4’s moving forward, that would be a win. He was not expected to be anything. We have seen the regression of guys like Mitchell Parker and Jake Irvin, who had longer spells of success.
It is very possible, if not likely that Alvarez will go down that same path. However, he is now at the very least a guy to keep an eye on. I don’t think he will start next season in the Nats rotation due to the small sample size. However, with the amount of injuries to pitchers these days, Alvarez has earned the chance to be one of the first guys up if someone goes down.
