The Vikings defense makes its opponents play a different game.
Really.
Minnesota blitzes like points are awarded when a quarterback is touched and tries everything in its power to force said quarterback to make an abrupt decision.
When you watch the Vikings’ defensive film, you wonder to yourself — why isn’t every defensive scheme this aggressive? Why do other defenses let the opposing quarterback stand in the pocket and scan the field?
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is calling a blitz on 74.2% of
opponent dropbacks, almost 30 percentage points higher than… the team second in blitz rate, and more than 40 percentage points higher than the league average of 31.4%. That’s per Fantasy Points Data.
According to PFF, the Vikings have blitzed on 80.7% of their opposition’s dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL and around 30% higher than the second-place team currently.
Regardless of which data-driven site you prefer, the point remains.
The Vikings are blitzing fiends.
There’s a strong likelihood the game tonight will be different. It’s an outlier, a one-off schematic and communication test for the Josh Allen, Joe Brady, Buffalo’s offensive line, and the club’s skill-position talent.
And the Bills don’t have to be perfect to win.
In fact, facing that many pressure packages, they probably won’t be. Brace yourself for that.
But a week after I called for the Bills to piece together a convincing win over a quality, familiar opponent, I’m asking for the exact opposite tonight against a unique, unfamiliar foe.
Grind out a gritty, scrappy, ugly victory.
Wins of all varieties count the same in the standings.
With that, I’d like to serve this reminder — tonight we’re unlikely to see the juggernaut Bills offense that moves the football with ease, a unit that shocks us when a drive doesn’t end with points.
This game needs to be viewed through a different lens.
But it absolutely is a “something’s gotta give” contest. That narrative is unavoidable.
The Vikings defense is first in points per drive allowed at 1.20. It is first in points per game at 13.3, second in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.7, and first in success rate at 25.7%
The Bills offense is first in points per drive at 3.13. It is first points per game 33.3, tied for first in yards per play at 6.3, and first in success rate at 56.6%.
We probably shouldn’t expect the Bills to hum at a 3.13 points per drive pace against this Vikings defense. And we probably shouldn’t expect the Vikings defense to hold the Bills to 1.20 points per drive either.
But on the road, in a majorly hyped prime time game, against a relatively obscure opponent Buffalo doesn’t play often — and Brady has never coordinated against as a member of the Bills staff — proving capable of winning differently is vital.
Because in the NFL, not all games can be won on your terms, following your ideal script.
Parity has become a central component of this league, to me, a secretly large driver of why ratings continue to soar.
Through Week 8, 71 games were decided by one score, which tied 2022 for the most such contests through Week 8 in NFL history. Entering tonight’s end cap of Week 9, that one-score game count is up to 77.
Sure, teams want to dictate to their opponents. The Bills have the offense to do that. And that’s an adage we’ve heard from Buffalo’s defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard.
But the best teams are those that somehow manage a small collection of strange victories throughout the season. It’s often the results of a few abnormal games in the regular season that separate the No. 1 seed from the No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 in each conference.
The Bills and their elite offense need to simply find a way to win against the Vikings and their elite defense to move to 7-1 for the first time since 1993, the last season they advanced to the Super Bowl.
