With the NFL Draft now less than two weeks away, it’s a good time to take my stand on whom the Giants should draft. As I discussed in an earlier post, I’m not thrilled with the Giants’ offseason roster moves on the whole. I like some things they’ve done, but the offensive line is in my opinion not better than last year and perhaps worse, though the Giants could quickly remedy that by bringing back Greg Van Roten. And the defensive line – I can’t believe I’m sitting here writing about a team whose
interior run defense was terrible last season, and not only has nothing been done to improve it, we now face the prospect of Dexter Lawrence being gone. Ed is having fun with his Lawrence trade scenarios, but as a fan they just give me agita to even think about.
It’s a good thing I’m not making the draft decisions, though, because I’d let those emotions get in the way. Instead I’ll cede most of the work to the mock draft algorithms and just inject a little personal opinion at each step. To simplify things, I will not allow trades, and to capture some of the uncertainty I’ll use two different mock draft engines.
Other than that, I will use the algorithms’ own big boards to make my selections, with one tweak – I’ll allow myself to choose any of the three highest ranking players left on the board when I pick, a nod to “best player available (BPA)” philosophy that simultaneously gives me a limited opportunity to draft for perceived needs as well but without reaching. To simplify things I won’t consider any draft trades.
That last point is an important one. This is considered to be a top-heavy draft. That’s bad news for the Giants, who only have two picks in the top 100 even though they have seven overall. A trade-down might get them an extra Day 2 pick. Below, though, we’ll consider only the picks the Giants currently have.
Pro Football Focus simulator
Question: What would you consider the ideal draft scenario for Joe Schoen and John Harbaugh to be presented with when pick No. 5 comes up? Perhaps Kayvon Thibodeaux will be traded in the next two weeks, but if he is not, I will be shocked if the Giants take any of the top edge defender prospects at No. 5, nor would I want them to. I also don’t want them to take Fernando Mendoza, though if he by some miracle was there at No. 5 it would be a great opportunity to trade down. Imagine my delight, then, when Mendoza, Arvell Reese, David Bailey, and Rueben Bain Jr. went 1, 2, 3, and 4, leaving me with a choice of
That is literally every player I’d feel good about the Giants taking at No. 5. However, I do have my preferences, and my rules allow me to draft only from the top three left on the board, narrowing it to Jeremiyah Love, Sonny Styles, and Francis Mauigoa. I’m sure Love will be a great NFL running back, but without a great run-blocking offensive line, it won’t show up in the win-loss column (see Saquon Barkley, 2018-2021). That would be a reason to take Francis Mauigoa and hope he can make the transition to right guard seamlessly. If there’s any place you’re going to implement best player available philosophy, though, the top of Round 1 is the place to do it. My sense is that Sonny Styles has a chance to be one of those generational players, and I would love to see a Styles-Tremaine Edmunds tandem at LB with Micah McFadden as LB3. So, Styles is my pick.
Here is Dane Brugler’s one-line summary of Styles from the interactive version of The Athletic’s “The Beast”:
Styles is an outstanding size-speed athlete who is comfortable in space, reacts well to what he sees and plays with the physicality to mark up the stat sheet. With elite subpackage value, he has the talent to become an impact linebacker early in his NFL career.
In Round 2, with the No. 37 pick, I passed on OT Max Iheanachor and DT Christen Miller and went instead with guard Emmanuel Pregnon. This was a tough one, especially after I said earlier how distressed I am about the Giants’ interior defensive line. Will I be sorry? Stay tuned. As for Pregnon, though, Brugler says:
Pregnon checks the boxes for size, power and competitive demeanor that NFL teams — specifically, those running gap schemes — look for in a starting guard. His profile is reminiscent of a more explosive O’Cyrus Torrence, and his draft projection should be similar.
Pregnon was in PFF’s top 10 in both run and pass blocking this past season, with only one sack and five pressures allowed, and Brugler notes that he’s well suited for gap running schemes, which happens to be assistant coach Greg Roman’s preference.
Moving to Round 4, the top three choices at No. 105 were wide receiver Ted Hurst of Georgia Southern, quarterback Drew Allar of Penn State, and offensive tackle Markel Bell of Miami. The Giants do need a QB3, but Round 4 is too rich for me. I don’t see the Giants drafting an offensive tackle this time around with Marcus Mbow backing up the starters. So I went with Hurst, because I am still not comfortable with the Giants’ overall wide receiver situation. Brugler says
Hurst faces a steep learning curve versus NFL press and coverage traffic, but his physical traits and ball-tracking skills — especially as a downfield target — are exciting. He is a developmental X/Z receiver with down-the-road starting upside.
With pick No. 145 in Round 5, the choices were quarterback Carson Beck of Miami, tight end Marlin Klein, and cornerback Charles Demmings of Stephen F. Austin. I don’t see the Giants taking a tight end in this draft. I could definitely see taking a chance on Demmings since I’m unsure of the Giants’ secondary, but by Day 3 everything is a crapshoot. That is especially true in this year’s draft, so I decided to take a flyer on Beck to be the Giants’ QB3. Beck has had three full seasons as a starter to impress NFL scouts, and he just hasn’t gotten over the hump. Still, he got Miami to the national championship game and played fairly well throughout the playoffs. He’s to some extent the anti-Jaxson Dart: Very good from a clean pocket, not great out of structure. Still, Matt Nagy made Mitch Trubisky look like a good NFL QB for one season, and maybe he can develop Beck to be a useful QB3. Brugler’s take is:
Beck is a cerebral pocket passer who can lead drives when the offense stays in rhythm, but he isn’t a proven second-reaction quarterback when things don’t go according to plan. He projects as an NFL backup and potential spot starter.
On to Round 6. With pick No. 186, the choices were CB Thaddeus Dixon of North Carolina, quarterback Cade Klubnik of Clemson, and offensive tackle Drew Shelton of Penn State. This time I did go for the cornerback. Brugler says of Dixon:
Dixon doesn’t have a true distinguishing trait, but he is solid across the board and has the size, coverage agility and toughness that will give him a chance to make a 53-man roster. He projects best in Cover 2 looks but shouldn’t be a scheme-dependent player.
Next, at No. 192, I passed again on Klubnik, as well as wide receiver Aaron Anderson, and took running back J’Mari Taylor, of whom Brugler says:
Taylor runs with both the compass and contact balance to be a volume ball carrier in a zone scheme. His reliability on special teams and third downs will help determine his value once he gets into an NFL camp.
Finally, at No. 193, the options were still Klubnik and Anderson, and so I took center Pat Coogan of Indiana. John Michael Schmitz could use some competition, and with Austin Schlottman gone, Coogan might have a chance to make the team. Brugler says:
Coogan is a smart, tough-minded technician, though his mediocre athleticism, length and recovery skills will be tough to mask versus NFL defensive linemen. He projects as an interior backup who can fill in at guard or center.
Overall, PFF thought highly of my draft:
I’m happy about my Round 1 and 2 picks. As for the rest, with no Round 3 pick don’t expect much exciting to happen after Round 2. I note that I did not fulfill my goal of finding an IDL. In reality, by Day 3, one should consider a broader range of possibilities than just the top three on your big board, so Round 4 might have been the place to take an IDL if I relaxed my top three rule for BPA…not that there are any Day 3 IDL prospects that look exciting.
Pro Football Network simulator
Things went very differently with the PFSN mock draft simulator. Sonny Styles was off the board by No. 5. I passed on Reese, Love, and Bain and decided to take wide receiver Carnell Tate, about which Brugler says,
Tate is a long, technically proficient receiver who can win at all three levels using high-level tracking/adjustment skills and catching radius. He projects as an immediate NFL starting Z with Pro Bowl upside.
Tate may be a bit of a reach at No. 5, but he is a legitimate WR2 who would pair perfectly with Malik Nabers. The Eagles and Cowboys always manage to have an elite WR1 and WR2. Why not the Giants? Remember the Plaxico Burress – Amani Toomer days? Or the Hakeem Nicks – Victor Cruz days?
Moving to Round 2, Ty Simpson was still on the board as one of the top three left, and I absolutely could see the Giants trading down. In my draft, though, there are no trades. My other two available choices were cornerback Brandon Cisse of South Carolina and IDL Christen Miller of Georgia. The Giants could use help at both positions, but I need to redeem myself from my failure to acquire IDL help in my PFF draft. Furthermore, while there is a chance the secondary will be OK, the IDL looks like a three-alarm fire at the moment. My choice is Miller, of whom Brugler says:
Miller can be up and down with his anchor and rush consistency, but he is rock solid as a run defender who should excel on early downs. His role will shift depending on scheme, though he projects best as a one-gapping nose in a four-man front.
I’d like a more glowing review, but welcome to the 2026 draft, which is not strong at the DT position. All the more reason to extend Dexter Lawrence rather than trading him. Miller at least has the potential to grow into his role and even if he does not refine ¾ pass rush ability, the Giants do have Darius Alexander, who looked promising as a pass rusher as a rookie, to be the third down IDL next to Lawrence.
In Round 4, the choices were cornerback Tacario Davis of Washington, IDL Darrell Jackson Jr. of Florida State, and TE Michael Trigg of Baylor. Having gone IDL and passed on a cornerback in Round 2, this time I go for the cornerback. Brugler says of Davis:
Davis has truly unique measurables for a cornerback, which work against him at times, but his size-speed traits and ball skills are worth the gamble. Though he has tools for press-man teams, he projects best as a zone corner in Cover 3 looks.
In Round 5, my choices are running back Seth McGowan of Kentucky, cornerback Devin Moore of Florida, and IDL David Marshall Jr. of Baylor. Moore has had an extensive injury history but played well when healthy. Marshall is an undersized DT (5-foot-11 ¾, 283 pounds), and the Giants already have one of those in Elijah Chatman. I went with McGowan, but in retrospect I might have taken my chances with Moore. Brugler says of McGowan:
McGowan is a good-sized, coordinated athlete with adequate vision and run strength, although his lack of explosive traits and inconsistent third-down value will make it an uphill climb to prove his worth on an NFL roster.
Realistically this would have been the place to abandon my BPA requirement and expand my list of choices.
Now we come again to the three Round 6 picks. At No. 186, the three choices were center Delby Lemieux of Dartmouth (no, not Shane’s brother), running back Roman Hemby of Indiana, and running back Eli Heidenreich of Navy. The last thing I need is to pick another running back, and as before let’s give JMS some competition in Lemieux, about which Brugler says:
Lemieux is a tackle-to-center projection at the next level, with balance issues but intriguing smarts, urgency and snap-and-step quickness. He is a practice-squad candidate as a rookie.
With Evan Neal in camp, I’m not sure we need another offensive lineman with balance issues, but it was either take a chance on Lemieux or take another running back.
The choices at No. 192 were quarterback Drew Allar of Penn State, Heidenreich, or wide receiver Eric Rivers. Rivers is small but has speed, but his production dropped dramatically in his final season. As in my PFF draft, I decide to go with a late round candidate to be QB3, Drew Allar. Allar is a perplexing player. He has the size, he has a strong arm, he’s had four years to mature, but he just hasn’t become the QB people thought he could be. As in my previous draft, though, I decide to give Matt Nagy a chance to develop him. Brugler says about him:
Allar is a sturdy, strong-armed passer with promising intangibles, but underdeveloped timing disrupts his ability to execute at a high level. He has NFL starting-caliber physical tools, although a lack of natural passing rhythm creates uncertainty about his developmental ceiling.
Finally, with pick No. 193, the choices are the same two I left on the board with my previous pick, plus tight end Jack Endries of Texas. I pass on the other two again and select Endries even though I said earlier I didn’t want to draft a tight end this year. Brugler says of Endries,
Endries doesn’t have a dominant physical trait that separates him at the position, but he is a confident hands catcher with functional athleticism and toughness. He has low-ceiling starting potential in the NFL.
Looking at the totality of this draft, PFSN loves it:
I’m not sure I love it, though. This time I did get my IDL, I think Tate could be a fantastic addition to the offense, and Davis could be a useful addition to the secondary. After that, though, I wasn’t excited by any of the picks.
In reality, this is not one of the greatest draft classes we’ve seen in recent years after the first round or two. Once Round 4 is over in this draft, it seems that the best thing the Giants could do is to mostly abandon their big board rankings and just try to find some help at positions of need, even if they are drafting them half a round sooner than their big board says they should. For example, in this draft I did not find a guard, but that’s only because I restricted myself to the top three remaining players on the big board at each step. In reality, Brugler has two guards with late third round rankings, two more with fourth round rankings, and two more with fifth round rankings. I don’t think there are any Trey Smith or Christan Mahogany-type guards who come into the draft with considerable interest from fans but who drop to the late rounds for whatever reason. A legitimate question is whether any of them would be better than newly signed Daniel Faalele. Or Greg Van Roten, who’s still out there (I wonder why I keep harping on this).
The same question applies to IDL, a position I did not manage to find in my PFF draft. Brugler has multiple defensive tackles rated as fourth and fifth rounders. If the Giants do not get one at No. 37, would they have been better off signing Calais Campbell, or Shelby Harris, or D.J. Reader? Would they be better off redoing Dexter Lawrence’s contract and not having to find two IDLs in the draft?
It could be a very short honeymoon for John Harbaugh.
