Tom Aspinall has a vested interest in the Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane fight at UFC White House, to say the least.
When Pereira and Gane step into the octagon on the South Lawn this Sunday, it will be for an interim heavyweight title that was created in the absence of Aspinall, the UFC’s current undisputed champion. Aspinall defended his title against Gane this past October at UFC 321, but the bout ended in disaster for both fighters when Gane accidentally poked Aspinall the eyes, bringing an unceremonious
end to the fight that was officially ruled a no-contest. Worse, Aspinall has been sidelined since as he recovers from the eye injuries with no clear timetable for his return to action.
Though Aspinall will not be in attendance at the White House, he’ll be watching Sunday’s co-main event closely, with the understanding that he will meet the winner in a title unification bout. He gave his analysis of the fight on his YouTube channel, focusing on one key factor he thinks could have a significant impact on the outcome.
“Alex Pereira, absolute wrecking machine at middleweight and light heavy,” Aspinall said. “How does he look at heavyweight because that’s a different thing, that is, especially fighting a guy who’s naturally big and moves really well like Ciryl Gane? Going to be super, super interesting. I don’t know how it’s going to go. There’s a lot of Chama fans out there, I see, who think this is going to be a walkover. I don’t think it is, personally. I think it should be a good heavyweight fight.
“I think the most interesting thing for me is when you start changing your body composition and you go up massively in weight, how does that look down the stretch in a five-round fight when you’re fighting a big guy, moves a lot. That’s the interesting thing for me. I’m not doubting Alex Pereira’s power, I’m not doubting his skill set, what I am questionable of is the change in body composition, in 25 minutes how does that look?”
Pereira has already claimed titles in two divisions, defeating longtime rival Israel Adesanya to claim a 185-pound championship and then winning a vacant light heavyweight belt by defeating Jiri Prochazka. During his unprecedented rise to the top, “Poatan” has become famous for his knockout power, having finished Adesanya, Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, Khalil Rountree, and Sean Strickland.
Aspinall isn’t doubting Pereira’s finishing ability, but he is curious how the Brazilian’s power will translate up one more weight class.
“Listen, he might get a knockout, but it’s interesting, isn’t it?” Aspinall said. “That’s the talking point. It’s interesting because he’s a two-weight world champion going up about to potentially win his third UFC title at three weights, which is unprecedented, so how does that look when a guy can walk around 84 kilos or 185 pounds-not walk around, but weigh that–and then now they’re going to be fighting someone 115 kilos or 250 pounds. How’s that going to look?”
Shoud Pereira defeat Gane, he’ll become the first UFC fighter ever to hold a title in three divisions. Much of the matchup analysis has revolved around Pereira’s one-punch KO power and Gane’s incredible athleticism, factors that Aspinall says were also present when Pereira fought in lighter divisions. However, now that Pereira could be dealing wit a speed and size disadvantage, that raises new questions.
“Alex Pereira doesn’t move too much,” Aspinall said. “He’s quite flatfooted, even when he was at the smaller weights. That being said, if you want to go on the flipside of it, he has fought guys like Israel Adesanya three times is it, four times? Someone like [Adesanya] is on the move constantly. Someone like him, on the flipside, who’s on the move constantly, isn’t the size of a guy like Ciryl Gane, and Alex Pereira wasn’t the size that he is now.
“So when he’s chasing someone and he’s weighed in the day before at 84 kilos or he’s chasing someone and he’s weighed in the day before at 110 kilos, what does it look like? This is interesting. I’m not saying that he can’t do it at all, but I’m just saying these are the questions that are going to be interesting for me.”
As close as the matchup is on paper, Aspinall is willing to offer his pick for the fight—and possibly his next opponent.
“Prediction could go either way for me, I wouldn’t be surprised either way, and there will be people watching saying, ‘Oh, he’s sitting on the fence, blah blah blah,’” Aspinall said. “If I was leaning one way, it would be Ciryl Gane on points. If I was leaning a particular way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alex knocks him out though, either, but I would definitely lean more towards Gane on points.”
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