Let me start with a quick recap of last week’s confidence poll. We were nearly at 75% of voters either believing that the Colts were already the team to beat, or an acquisition away from being so. For
the other 25%, “What are you waiting for?” I would gather that those who are holding out, watch our defense each week and wonder how it will stop good teams in the playoffs? I’m going to try to ease your mind a bit with this post.
While we are talking defense, lets look at the top four scoring defenses in the NFL after the two Monday night games. I chose scoring defense because it is the final product. Whether you are limiting the run, limiting the pass, or turning teams over, the final product is the score. I know it’s not perfect, since defenses don’t always give up points and I’m confident that Troy has a better metric, but keeping in mind that we are not yet to November, there realistically is no great measurement for what to expect in January.
Here are the current top four teams in scoring defense:
#1 Houston Texans are holding teams to 14.7 points per game even with the 27 they surrendered last night. This includes holding the Rams to 14 and the Bucs to 20. This shouldn’t be too surprising considering that Ryans is the head coach and they have invested heavily in the draft on that side of the ball. We will get two looks at that D and being able to solve them will be critical to our overall success and potential seeding. They are currently the gold standard, but also sit at 2 – 4, so their ability to stop teams is not translating into wins.
#2 Los Angeles Rams are holding teams to 16.7 ppg, but have benefited from playing the Jackson-less Ravens, the Texans, and to some extent, the Jags. They held us to 20, but did they really? I don’t want to revisit AD’s bad day, but did you ever feel like we couldn’t get what we wanted against them? We were also down Goncalves and Pierce for that one. They are a good defense, likely not great, but good enough given their offense, which is what the Colts hope to maintain and build on with their unit.
#3 Don’t look now, but the defense that carried the Chiefs for much of last year is doing so again. They are giving up 17.7 ppg. Their patsy games have been the Giants, the Raiders and the aforementioned Jackson-less Ravens. Maybe more impressive is the 17 that they gave up against a potent Lions offense. Mahomes and Co. have been playing complementary football to date, but as Halloween is rolling around, they are getting some receivers back and are on the verge of scary, aka their norm.
#4 Is another club we have seen in the Broncos at 18.1 ppg. They have had the luxury of facing the Jets (woof), the Titans and the Bengals minus Burrow. We put up 29 on this team, along with 473 yards. I get the sense that this is a team with a good offense and a good defense, with neither unit being one that could carry them.
If you look at the top four teams, you will notice that we will have played five games against this group by the end of the season. It feels like we have passed the first two tests. If the Chiefs or Texans actually solve us, it could become a blueprint, but we haven’t really been contained, let alone stopped. If we maintain our prowess against the Chiefs and Texans, I don’t like anyone’s chances of doing anything but winning a shoot out against us.
So, what about our defense? We actually check in tied for 8th at 20 points ppg. This is largely on the coattails of holding down the Dolphins and Raiders. Even our strongest supporters recognize that we will need some players to return and a hopeful infusion from elsewhere to feel confident that we can be the speed bump that slows opponents enough to let our race car offense pull away.
The premise of the article is to make us feel good about our defense, warts and all, but the best thing we are doing for our D is getting a lead. No team has had the luxury of trying to play bully ball against us, as the Broncos were the most effective against us, with 118 yards on 24 carries. I think we will get our test on that front in Berlin. We also were at or near the top of the league in missed tackles last year. I can’t find our exact rank, but we are not in the top four, and from the cheap seats, I don’t feel missed tackles have been contributing to our less than stellar defense.
Banking on health is never a safe bet, but what we have returning is a definite upgrade in the secondary. We also have the guy that we have been expecting to be our Will for about a season and a half now, working his way towards game ready. On a different front, with Ebukam and Lewis going down last week, we may get to see if Tuimoloau is a more of a game day guy, than a practice guy. I mean, there are some players who find another gear on game day, I think we need to see if JT falls into that category.
I have two questions for you. Can our defense be the speed bump we need it to be, and can a speed bump be enough for that deep run we are all hoping to see?
