Last season, for my inaugural crystal ball look at the 2025 Minnesota Vikings season, I stepped on a rake. I had our favorite team going 12-5, largely because of early optimism about J.J. McCarthy’s readiness. While the reasoning seemed sound, a rookie season comparable to those of C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix didn’t materialize. I absolutely still have faith, but that’s a topic for another time.
I take some solace in knowing I wasn’t alone in embracing that take. Heck, the Vikings organization
thought that, too. While rumors of internal disagreement are out there and need to be acknowledged, the only thing we know is that Sam Darnold was allowed to leave and that McCarthy was under center in Week 1 in Chicago. Watching Darnold hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the Seattle Seahawks 11 months later was an outcome only the Vikings could manage.
Enough dwelling on old tortures. Surely there are fresh ones to prepare for. With that in mind, let’s talk about the 2026 schedule.
THE INSURANCE POLICY OFFSEASON
First, some context. This entire exercise assumes that 2026 is playoff-success-or-bust. As I mentioned last time: A 12-5, 11-6, or 10-7 one-and-done season won’t cut it. Not making the playoffs would be calamitous and could prompt a major offseason shakeup. We need to win some playoff games – period.
That’s why we just went through the “insurance-policy offseason.” Most importantly, it meant bringing Brian Flores back at any cost. He quickly became the NFL’s highest-paid coordinator. Check.
Then it was all about jumping on the fortuitous Kyler Murray situation. He’s now the overwhelming betting favorite to become the Vikings’ new starter for the veteran minimum of $1.3 million. But wait! What if Murray comes in and plays poorly – in training camp or otherwise? Then we have a locked-in, improved McCarthy to reclaim the QBOTF trajectory we hoped for last season. To quote Leo Getz from the Lethal Weapon movies: “Okay, okay, okay, okay”… what if, through performance or injury, neither Murray nor McCarthy is the answer during the season? Enter a healthy Carson Wentz, who looked just fine at the helm before getting battered by injuries. And, unlike last season, he’ll have a full offseason to soak in KOC’s offense. Insurance at the QB position? Check.
This brings us to the one-year deal for free-agent WR Jauan Jennings. If all goes well, the Vikings will have the most talented and dangerous 1-2-3 WR group since Carter, Moss, and Reed. But if Jefferson or Addison were to miss time, you could do a whole lot worse than Jefferson-Jennings-Felton or Addison-Jennings-Felton. I was on record as being optimistic about the pre-Jennings Jefferson-Addison-Felton scenario. The Jennings signing was massive. He adds an entirely new dynamic to the passing game, to say nothing of his blocking ability. Security on offense for whoever is playing QB? Check.
Everything is in place to prevent another 2023 or 2025 from happening.
BREAKING DOWN THE SCHEDULE
With the understanding that this season will ultimately be judged by what happens (or doesn’t) in the postseason, you still have to get there. Of course, we already knew the opponents: six division games, the rotating formula of NFC and AFC divisional opponents (NFC South and AFC East), and three games (two NFC/one AFC) determined by last season’s third-place finish (49ers/Commanders/Colts).
In the end, the way the final schedule actually broke down was certainly more positive than negative.
What I Like About the Schedule
At first glance, the positive takeaways were:
- At the Chicago Bears in September (Week 2). Yes, we won there last year, making it six straight. But it’s never easy. Five of those six were one-score games. And before this recent run, Soldier Field was a house of horrors: 3-12 in the previous 15 trips. I’d have a lot less confidence in winning this one if it were late in the season and in frigid conditions. Not having to deal with that is a benefit.
- At Green Bay Before Thanksgiving (Week 10). Similar idea here. Mid-November in Green Bay won’t be as pleasant weather-wise as Chicago in September, but it should be fine. My great fear whenever the new schedule is upon us is getting those dreaded road games in Chicago and Green Bay as the Week 18 finale (or worse, both in December). Fortunately, that’s not the case this upcoming season.
- An International Game as the Road Team (Week 11). If you have to travel to another country for a game, it’s better to be in Mexico than in Europe, and it’s an advantage to be the road team – especially if the opponent is a perennial playoff contender like the San Francisco 49ers. Their home-field advantage is diluted, and the atmosphere is more balanced. The Cowboys are the most popular NFL team in Mexico, but a quick Google search shows the 49ers have a strong fanbase as well (along with the Raiders and Steelers). That said, even if it’s a somewhat partisan crowd and not a true neutral-field game, it sure won’t be Levi’s Stadium. Advantage: Vikings.
- Having Five of the Final Seven Games at Home. The Vikings should be set up for a strong finish if all goes according to plan. In addition to spending a lot of time at U.S. Bank Stadium from late November to early January, the team has an away game against the New York Jets. Key divisional home games against the Detroit Lions (Week 15) and Bears (Week 18) should come at a point when both the offense and defense are firing on all cylinders. The defense certainly was last year.
- Facing the Buffalo Bills at Home (Week 9). In a rematch of the greatest regular-season game in recent memory from 2022, we’ll see the Bills at U.S. Bank Stadium this time. I fully expect the Patriots to take a step back this year, having to play an actual NFL schedule (their 2025 slate was the easiest since 1999 and among the most creampuff of the past 50 years), so the Bills should be the toughest AFC opponent. Again, better indoors than outside in Buffalo in November (even though the Bills’ new open-air stadium looks really nice).
What I Dislike About the Schedule
- We Need to Beat the Green Bay Packers at Home in Week 1. The first month of the season could go sideways quickly if we don’t start on the right foot against the stupid Packers at home. Follow-up road games at Chicago and Tampa Bay are tricky spots. The former for the reason stated above, and the latter is always right there in playoff contention. Baker Mayfield is about as predictable as the weather or traffic jams; he’s capable of looking like the best QB in the NFL any given Sunday. Going 0-1 not only within the NFC but within the division (and a home loss) would trigger some 2023 flashbacks, when a 0-3 start had the Vikings playing catch-up for the rest of the season. Even 1-2 isn’t ideal, because…
- Not Thankful for the November Slate. Another reason a quick start is preferable is the tough stretch between Nov 1st and Nov 22nd, when the Vikings play three road games at Detroit, at Green Bay, and on the aforementioned trek to Mexico City to play San Francisco. The home game is against Buffalo. That’s a daunting month of games, right there, my friends. Division road games are always difficult, and I addressed the Bills and 49ers games above. I’ll be thrilled with 2-2 over that stretch. We could overcome 1-3 if we got off to a strong start. If not? The margin for error in the final seven weeks gets perilously thin.
- Another Week 6 Bye. For the second straight year, the Vikings will have an early Week 6 bye. Unlike 2025, it won’t come off an international game. This is the second-earliest bye week in the NFL, and it will mean playing 12 straight games to close out the season. Not ideal. KOC also better have a plan to prevent a letdown or sluggish performance in Week 12 at home against the Atlanta Falcons, following a Sunday night game in Mexico City. I thought the Falcons at home would be a cakewalk last year. How’d that go? And while the Lions share our early bye, it isn’t great that both the Bears and Packers have theirs in weeks 10 and 11, respectively. Of course they do.
Let’s Play the Category Game
Of course, this is always a risky proposition. There are always teams that surprise and exceed preseason expectations, and those that underwhelm. I don’t know anyone who predicted a Seahawks vs. Patriots Super Bowl last August, do you?
That said, to achieve the lofty goals we all expect from the Vikings in 2026, here’s how I see it.
Games the Vikings Must Win (No Excuses) (2-0)
vs Miami (Week 4)
at New York Jets (Week 17)
Would it really shock you if either the Dolphins or the Jets held the #1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft? Oddsmakers expect it.
Games the Vikings Should Win (6-2)
at Tampa Bay (Week 3)
at New Orleans (Week 5)
vs Indianapolis (Week 7)
vs Atlanta (Week 12)
vs Carolina (Week 13)
vs Detroit (Week 15)
vs Washington (Week 16)
vs Chicago (Week 18)
Except for the Bears and Lions, the oddsmakers have all of these teams with lower over/under win totals than the Vikings’ ridiculous 8.5 (more on that in a moment). I fully expect all of the Bears’ lucky bounces last year to revert to the mean in 2026. Heck, we should have beaten them at home last November anyway. And I originally had Detroit at home in the next category, but the thorough Flores dismantling of the Lions’ offense with everything on the line to save their season, coupled with winning the game with our third-string QB, was enough to move it here.
There’ll be a slip-up or two here, but that had better be the worst-case scenario.
The True Coinflip Games (4-3)
vs Green Bay (Week 1)
at Chicago (Week 2)
at Detroit (Week 8)
vs Buffalo (Week 9)
at Green Bay (Week 10)
at San Francisco (Mexico City) (Week 11)
at New England (Week 14)
These are the ones that could go either way. Right now, I feel better about some (vs GB, at NE) than about others (vs Buffalo, at SF). Let’s say we can squeak out a winning record in these seven games.
2026 SEASON PREDICTION
12-5. There you have it. Maybe I was just a year off on that prediction. If at first you don’t succeed…
Just as I’m running it back with a 12-5 forecast, the oddsmakers are too, with the 8.5 over/under. Yeah, I don’t get it. We won nine games with arguably the most inconsistent quarterback play since 2013 or 2007. Flores is back. Kyler Murray is now here. Despite everything, McCarthy went 6-4 in his 10 starts last year. That projects to 10-7 over a full season, even if he doesn’t improve this offseason (spoiler: he will). Oh, and Wentz is back healthy, too. We’ve added Jauan Jennings. Make it make sense.
The tedious “make the playoffs one year, miss the next” pattern that has often defined this team since the Dennis Green era is still present, even though, in true Vikings fashion, when it misses, it’s nearly always on the bad side (i.e., back-to-back no-playoffs). The last time it didn’t? In 2008-2009. It’s now 2026.
Add to this the fact that the Bears won’t repeat their ridiculous NFL-best +22 turnover differential next year, the Lions appear to be regressing a bit, and the Packers are stuck in that 8- to 11-win, good-but-not-great post-Aaron Rodgers window. All of this bodes well for the Vikings.
As noted, however, this season is all about playoff success. Another 2022 or 2024 won’t cut it. The idea is to move forward.
Let’s hope this goal is achieved.
