As hopefully most of you have seen, I came in on the lower end of win projections for the staff this year. The labs are a great place to go into detail about how we arrive at such things. in short, it isn’t a random guess. The win projections are based on individual WAR projections and finding a way to add those up. Of course, this starts with a tutorial on what replacement level is to begin with.
The concept behind replacement level was the question of who would replace a regular player if he was missing.
If a player leaves via free agency or trade then SOMEONE is going to man that position. It likely will not be a big league regular who is average. So, the default becomes a typical AAA regular player. If the Sugar Land Space Cowboys were an average AAA team they would likely finish 48-114 in the big leagues. Obviously, Sugar Land may not in fact be average, but we will leave that for a different discussion on a different day.
Therefore, when we start adding wins we start adding from 48 and not from zero. We saw that the projected everyday lineup would add about 20 wins according to my projections. The rotation would add about ten wins according to my projections. That means we are up to 78 wins before we have touched the bullpen and bench. We need to find seven wins somewhere to meet my 85-77 projected finish.
Bryan Abreu: 1.4 WAR per 60 innings, 1.3: 90%, 1.0: 75%, 0.7: 50%
The main difference between starters and relievers are the innings. We project 60 because that seems to be the average for a full season. Abreu’s start has colored my projection but not in the way you might think. I am taking the 50 percent projection because I think he might not make it through the season. Two bad outings are just that. If they happened in June or July we wouldn’t freak out. This is particularly true since neither resulted in an Astros loss. Yet, the drop in velocity in Sunday’s game is alarming.
A.J. Blubaugh: 1.3 WAR per 60 innings, 1.2: 90%, 1.0: 75%, 0.7: 50%
Relievers are typically a fungible asset and that is why long-term contracts are a bad idea in 99 percent of circumstances. In 2016, Chris Devenski burst on the scene as a part-time starter/long reliever/fireman type of pitcher. Blubaugh looks like one of those guys. He may not be effective in that role for very long. Devenski had a short shelf life as it turned out. However, I think this season could be a magical season for him before the league catches up. I am taking the 90 percent projection.
Enyel de los Santos: 0.3 WAR per 60 innings, 0.3: 90%, 0.3: 75%, 0.2: 50%
You’ll notice a few members of the current pen do not show up here and a few injured ones do. Thus, we get de los Santos. I’ll take the 50 percent projection due to health, but that is really academic at this point. de los Santos is the very definition of a replacement level reliever. Some years see him perform much better than others. We have no way of knowing which one we will see until we see it.
Josh Hader: 1.8 WAR per 60 innings, 1.6: 90%, 1.3: 75%, 0.9: 50%
The secret to success in the bullpen is to have everyone on top of their game at the same time. That is how 2022 happens. 2026 might be the inverse. It won’t be terrible, but your two best relievers are not completely healthy and you have a group of unproven guys behind that. How Joe Espada manages this will spell the difference between an early fishing trip and playoff contention. I am going with the 50 percent projection here due to health.
Bryan King: 1.5 WAR per 60 innings, 1.4: 90%, 1.1: 75%, 0.8: 50%
I can’t in good conscience pick anything north of the 50 percent projection. King was leaking oil down the stretch last season because Espada leaned on him for high leverage. That wasn’t a good idea, but I get it. Who else was available? The key to 2026 is finding someone else for the 7th inning. It could be Bennett Sousa or Steven Okert eventually, but it will probably end up being Blubaugh. If King is used more situationally then he can be effective.
Steven Okert: 0.8 WAR per 60 innings, 0.7: 90%, 0.5: 75%, 0.4: 50%
I’m taking the 90 percent projection. Okert looks like he found something and he also doesn’t seem to get overexposed like King. He seems like a solid middle reliever that will hurl close to 60 innings and will an above average reliever doing it. He isn’t going to make anyone forget Sandy Lyle, but he is a solid lefty and every team needs at least one of those.
Bennett Sousa: 0.5 WAR per 60 innings, 0.5: 90%, 0.4: 75%, 0.3: 50%
Unlike Okert or King, his peripherals were outstanding last year. He is what most people would lovingly call a LOOGY (lefty one out guy). Obviously, there is a three batter minimum now, but is the prototypical situational lefty. As such, I see no reason why he can’t continue to do what he did last season once he arrives in Houston. Thankfully, he will spare us from either Roddery Munoz or Christian Roa.
Kai-Wei Teng: -1.2 WAR per 60 innings, -1.1: 90%, -0.9: 75%, -0.6: 50%
If we follow our own rules then we have to take one of those three options. The 50 percent is most palatable, but this is one of those cases where the likely result is an additional win over that. Teng has an opportunity to cement a spot while the injured arms recover. I have to imagine he will succeed where Roddery Munoz and Christian Roa will not. That is why they have not been featured here.
The quick math skills tell me that the bullpen will be worth 4.4 wins combined. I will round that up to five since Teng will not be a negative asset. For one, he will likely be better than that. Secondly, if he isn’t then he won’t be in the big leagues long. So, exact replacement level performance out of that spot gets you to five wins exactly. So, before we get to the bench, I have gotten to an 83-79 record. Next time we will take a look to see how many wins the four bench guys will add.
