BOISE STATE BRONCOS AT SAN DIEGO STATE
Location: San Diego, California (Snapdragon Stadium)
Date/Time: Saturday, November 15th at 8:30 p.m. (Mountain Time)
Television: CBSSN
Streaming: CBS Sports App
Radio:
KBOI 670 AM/KBOI 93.1 FM (Bronco Radio Network)
Head-to-Head: Boise State is 6-4 all-time against the Aztecs, winning the last three matchups. In 2024, the Broncos took it to San Diego State via a 32-point win on The Blue.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Boise State: 6-3 (4-1 in MW), San Diego State: 7-2 (4-1 in MW)
Mountain West vs. Mountain West
BSU: Head Coach Spencer Danielson (2nd Full Year, 21-6 Overall Record)
SDSU: Head Coach Sean Lewis (2nd Full Year at San Diego State, 34-42 Career Record)
Last Week
BSU: Had a bye last week, but lost to Fresno State the week prior in a dispiriting 30-7 defeat. In that loss, starting QB Maddux Madsen went down with a leg injury that sidelined him for the rest of the game and will keep him off the field this week. Backup Max Cutforth had a shaky performance, but has now received over a week’s worth of reps at QB1.
SDSU: Took it on the chin on the Islands against Hawai’i, losing 38-6 to the Rainbow Warriors. Nothing went right for the Aztecs, as QB Jayden Denegal had one of his worst outings to date, throwing two interceptions and completing 37% of his passes for 132 yards. Four team turnovers threw San Diego State into a rumble seat that was too strong to climb out of.
What Allows Boise State to Win Saturday?
Give RB Dylan Riley the dang ball.
A Nobel Prize-level answer isn’t needed for the Boise State offense to return to form.
Against Fresno State, offensive coordinator Nate Potter put Max Cutforth into the fire, and the Nampa native was burned.
He was uncomfortable in the pocket, and the needed confidence to drive the Broncos down the field was missing.
You can’t blame a backup quarterback for getting stage fright in front of a sold-out crowd.
But for dynamic running back Dylan Riley to receive just six carries in a game where the run game was needed most was an unusual choice to say the least.
Luckily, head coach Spencer Danielson found it confounding as well, emphasizing that this “can’t happen.”
Let’s see it then.
Especially with the following players out on the offensive side of the ball:
- QB Maddux Madsen
- WR Chris Marshall
- WR Demetric Whitlock Jr.
- WR Ben Ford
- OL Hall Schmidt
- OL Jason Steele
If Cutforth can cut it up and keep the Aztecs honest, then great.
But to keep the Broncos within striking distance, unlike the Fresno State fiasco, the run game needs to anchor the offense, and Dylan Riley has shown more than anyone else that he can be the workhorse that carries this team.
What Allows San Diego State to Win Saturday?
Play clean, and make Boise State earn every yard.
Prior to last week’s debacle in Honolulu, the Aztecs were a prime example of a team that didn’t shoot themselves in the foot, which led to its 7-1 record.
But something was in the air against Hawai’i.
San Diego State committed a season-high four turnovers.
The dam broke on defense.
Everything that could have gone wrong, did go wrong.
What is the needed remedy to get back on the saddle?
The Aztecs must remain true to their identity and control the game through RB Lucky Sutton. It’s always fun to be the pass-happy attack that can blow games open in the matter of minutes.
But when something is amiss, that high can come crashing down just as fast.
With the Broncos missing numerous key contributors as they come into Snapdragon Stadium, all the Aztecs need is to stay the course and suffocate Boise State’s offense.
If Fresno State can hold them to seven, there is no reason the conference’s best defense can’t put up a similar stat line.
Who Pulls Out The Win?
Both teams come into this one after disorienting, lopsided losses.
This is Max Cutforth’s first official start.
The Aztecs are regrouping after only their second loss of the year.
If anyone tells you they know exactly how this game is going to play out, please let me know because there are countless scenarios that could transpire.
I lean towards the Aztecs finding a way to defend their home turf as Boise State looks better than they did two weeks ago, but not good enough to pull off the upset.
Petterson’s Prediction: San Diego State to Win Outright, San Diego State to Cover, and Take the Under.
FanDuel Odds: SDSU -1.5, Total of 41.5
San Diego State Aztecs 17 – Boise State Broncos 14
Let us at the Mountain West Connection know your prediction for the battle between the Mountain West’s No. 1 and 2 teams in the comments!
