It’s the time of NFL year when fanbases either look forward to the playoffs or the offseason, and for six different organizations that offseason is going to involve a reset at head coach. This is a cycle Chicago has been through a lot recently, and from Trestman to Fox to Nagy to Eberflus and finally to Johnson…well, Chicago has seen a lot of head coaches recently. As a fan of the Bears, I know what it looks like when a team needs a reset. With that in mind, I wanted to look at how the different vacancies
stacked up. For each opening I am listing my basic rationale followed by some key data points, and then I am also recommending someone currently employed by Chicago to assist the team in question in its rebuilding process.
#7 The Atlanta Falcons
The organization with the hardest road ahead is probably the one where Chicago’s organization has the strongest chance of actually contributing to the solution.
Offensive/Defensive Ranks: 23rd in points scored and 19th in points allowed.
Quarterback: The Falcons have either Kirk Cousins (95 ANY/A+, 89 Rate+) or Michael Penix (108 ANY/A+, 95 Rate+) at quarterback, neither of whom inspires hope of anchoring a franchise. It’s likelier than not that Cousins will be gone, but it’s hard to feel secure that Penix will recover from his most recent knee surgery.
Cap Space: Thanks to a reworked contract with Kirk Cousins, Atlanta starts the year with $21.4million in cap space, and with $17.8million in effective space once all obligations are taken into consideration (after they sign their rookie class and accounting for any empty roster spots with basic deals).
Top 50 Picks: #48. That’s it. They lack a first-round pick due to the trade with Los Angeles that brought in defensive standout James Pearce.
Bears Personnel Fit: Ian Cunningham (General manager). When Ryan Poles took over Chicago, the Bears had a terrible cap situation inherited from Ryan Pace mortgaging the future to win a few more games, and he left a dozen zombie contracts with void years. The team also lacked a first-round pick due to the trade to secure Justin Fields. All that was left was promising defense and a few pieces on offense. Sound familiar? The man who helped Ryan Poles sort that out was Ian Cunningham, and Cunningham will hopefully avoid the mistakes that made the rebuild take longer than it had to under Poles. After all–he was right there to learn from those same mistakes secondhand. It helps that the Falcons’ situation is actually better in some ways than what Chicago faced.
#6 The Cleveland Browns
The Browns have long been the Bears’ twin in the AFC, a team in search of answers at quarterback and trying a multitude of approaches in the hopes of getting it right.
Offensive/Defensive Ranks: 31st in points scored and 14th in points allowed.
Quarterback: The Browns have Shedeur Sanders (69 ANY/A+, 64 Rate+), who is either a horribly maligned superstar waiting to be freed from the shackles of a coaching staff out to sabotage him or just another accomplished college player whose skill set just doesn’t translate to the NFL. Most signs point to the latter, hence why he fell as far as he did. One way or another, the media circus and pressures around Sanders make him an additional disincentive to any coach.
Cap Space: The Browns have -$12.3million in cap space, and it’s -$27.7million in effective space. They need to make serious cuts to the roster just to break even.
Top 50 Picks: #6, #28, and #39. This is the good news. Thanks to the Jaguars trade, the Browns have the cap room to build around the future–and even if it turns out that Shedeur is not a franchise quarterback, the things necessary to support him will just as readily support the next guy.
Bears Personnel Fit: Case Keenum (Backup Quarterback). Whatever else happens, Sanders could use a friendly face who is always in his corner and who knows the ups and downs of being a professional quarterback. There is perhaps no better man for that job than Case Keenum. The professional backup (he actually made a commercial about it) has been an absolutely essential part of helping Caleb Williams feel more relaxed and ready to play.
#5 Arizona Cardinals
If any organization is downgraded because of its competition, it has to be the Cardinals. The other teams in the NFC West went 38-13 this season, meaning the 3-14 Cardinals themselves lost more games than the other three teams combined.
Offensive/Defensive Ranks: 23rd in points scored and 29th in points allowed.
Quarterback: The Cardinals have a complicated financial decision to make regarding Kyler Murray (80 ANY/A+, 95 Rate+) soon, but they also have Jacoby Brissett (99 ANY/A+, 103 Rate+) under contract.
Cap Space: The Cardinals have $21million ($9.7m effective space) in space! This is an organization with actual cap space, not a deficit, and it should be able to maneuver adequately to support a few roster changes.
Top 50 Picks: #3 and #34. These are good picks that give the team a chance to upgrade two positions meaningfully, and that assumes there are no maneuvers within the larger framework.
Bears Personnel Fit: Declan Doyle (Head Coach). Monti Ossenfort has assembled a team with competent weapons on offense, but he needs a head coach who can put the pieces together and help the team sort out the quarterback situation–whether that’s with someone on the roster or someone found via the high picks the team holds. Doyle would be a little inexperienced for the role, but the former tight ends coach has helped oversee the stabilization of a talented but misfiring offense into one of the top units in the league.
#4 New York Giants
The Giants job should be more appealing, but there have to be doubts around the general manager and the hard reality of what is and is not possible in terms of turning the team around—or how quickly the process can happen.
Offensive/Defensive Ranks: 17th in points scored and 26th in points allowed.
Quarterback: So long as his health allows it, the Giants might have found an answer at quarterback in Jaxon Dart (97 ANY/A+, 100 Rate+).
Cap Space: A meager $11million in theoretical cap space but -$4.4million in effective space. In fact, the tight cap situation is probably the single biggest detriment to this job, because it will be hard to reinvent the team to suit a particular vision with its current constraints.
Top 50 Picks: Picks #5 and #37 should help a lot with a new coach’s vision, however.
Bears Personnel Fit: Eric Bieniemy (Head Coach). Chicago’s running backs coach has rings from his role as the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs, a role he also filled for the Commanders and for UCLA. There’s chatter that if Matt Nagy leaves for a head coaching role, the Chiefs might lure him back to Kansas City. However, he has yet to get a chance at running a team himself, and he would probably forgo working with Mahomes again in favor of finally having his shot. What Dart needs now more than anything is a head coach who can set him up for success, and Bieniemy has proven he can be that man.
#3 The Baltimore Ravens
If Lamar Jackson ends up back at full strength–or even close–and the right coach lands this job, the team could make a deep playoff run. However, it’s clear from what’s been said that simply making the playoffs will not be enough for ownership, and there will likely be an expectation to win soon. This job is less desirable than the top two simply because the new head coach will need to produce results almost instantly with what is essentially someoen else’s roster.
Offensive/Defensive Ranks: 11th in points scored and 18th in points allowed.
Quarterback: The Ravens have Lamar Jackson (115 ANY/A+, 118 Rate+), under contract through 2027, and he counts $74.5million against the cap each of those next two seasons (he is roughly a quarter of their cap space). After that, he would need to be extended.
Cap Space: The Ravens only have $28.1million in cap space and $12.4million in effective cap space.
Top 50 Picks: At the moment, they have both #14 and #45.
Bears Personnel Fit: Ben Johnson would be perfect, but Chicago doesn’t have plans on letting him go right now. So instead, I’ll just suggest that the Ravens could give the Vikings defensive guru Brian Flores a close look. The man already coaches for a team that wears purple, and as a Chicago fan I have a clear ulterior motive whatsoever at getting him out of the NFC North, so that’s going to have to count.
#2 Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are a virtual clean slate in terms of a pending rebuild, with draft capital and salary space to spare. A new head coach will be able to build the roster to fit, but there are already exceptional pieces in place—like Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers.
Offensive/Defensive Ranks: 32nd in points scored and 25th in points allowed.
Quarterback: At the moment, Geno Smith (76 ANY/A+, 89 Rate+) is the quarterback for the Raiders, but it seems nearly inevitable that the #1 overall pick will be used to draft Fernando Mendoza.
Cap Space: The Raiders have an astonishing $100.8million in cap space ($74.8million in effective space), which is enough to significantly transform nearly any roster.
Top 50 Picks: #1 and #36 are in their possession at the moment, and while they could broker various deals to trade pieces like Crosby in the name of long-term development, the picks they have–when taken with their cap space–are sufficient that such moves are nice options instead of essential changes.
Bears Personnel Fit: Dennis Allen (Head coach). One of the only reasons the Raiders job is not first on this list is because the organization itself seems to attract a certain degree of drama, and Vegas is not like other cities. However, Dennis Allen has been a head coach before in New Orleans, and he’s no stranger to either drama or the challenges of a destination town. Perhaps more importantly, Allen would be able to maximize the defensive talent already on the roster while remaining familiar with the challenges of the sort of rebuild the Raiders face.
#1 Tennessee Titans
The Titans should be able to attract a superstar coaching candidate, a leader in the lockerroom with the experience and passion to turn around a struggling team in a single season, as seen with the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots. There’s only one Ben Johnson, but with luck, the Titans might be able to find their own Mike Vrabel!
Offensive/Defensive Ranks: 30th in points scored and 28th in points allowed.
Quarterback: The Titans are going to be committed to the #1 overall pick from 2025 Cam Ward (79 ANY/A+, 82 Rate+) for the foreseeable future. While Ward has struggled, most of those struggles have been a result of the team itself needing work instead of limitations inherent in him as a passer. That means the team will not need to spend its first-rounder in search of a passer.
Cap Space: The Titans have even more room in the cap than the Raiders, with $105million overall and $83.6million in effective space.
Top 50 Picks: #4 and #35, which should net a blue chip player and a starter, all things being equal.
Bears Personnel Fit: Al Harris (defensive coordinator). Rumor has it that the Titans are looking for a defense-minded head coach, and this is an attractive enough destination that they should have their choice of candidates. However, any head coach is going to need a competent coordinator on their side of the ball to oversee player development and to execute the day-to-day operations of the unit. The Titans would struggle to find a man better suited to the job than Al Harris, the defensive backs coach who has helped an injury-ravaged secondary lead the league in turnovers. Harris at DC would allow the new head coach to hit the ground running with his total vision.
