Playoff expansion continues to be in the headlines with a new college football season looming, and there’s one rumored idea out there that is beyond crazy, yet just so happens to be one that could benefit the Syracuse Orange the most.
Sources tell ESPN the Big Ten is floating a proposal which would expand the College Football Playoffs from 12 teams now to up to 24 or even 28 teams. In a hypothetical 28-team playoff, bids would divvy up as follows: 7 auto birds for each of the Big Ten and SEC, five
each for the ACC and Big 12, two auto bids for the non-P4 conferences and two more at-large bids. To accommodate the extra playoff games, it seems that conference championship games would also no longer happen.
Not including its win in the Holiday Bowl, Syracuse finished the 2024 season with a 9-3 overall record and a 5-3 record versus the ACC. It’s conference record was tied with Louisville for fourth-best in the ACC. In this format, Syracuse would have made the playoffs as an auto bid. The Orange finished last year ranked 21st in the CFP rankings.
If the 28-team proposal was a thing last year, it could have certainly led to an interesting bracket:
And yes, let’s be totally for real here: a 28-team proposal is absolutely insane for many reasons. Purely from Syracuse’s perspective, however, it would be undoubtedly beneficial.
First, it’s hard to deny how much better the probability odds are versus some of the other proposals out there, like this one. This 16-team idea hands out just two auto bids from the ACC, plus four each for the SEC and Big Ten, two for the Big 12, one for the Group of Five and three for at-large teams. In a worst-case scenario, the ACC gets just 12.5% of the available spots under this model. If a third ACC team didn’t get an auto bid but received the at-large, that number jumps to 18.75%.
As for the 28-team proposal, five ACC auto bids means the conference would already fill just under 18% of the bracket. And again, rather than having to finish top-two in the conference, a team like the Orange would only need to be in the top-five. Of course, it’s not a guarantee — Syracuse has finished with an above-.500 conference record just twice since joining the ACC — but the odds are obviously way higher to crack the top-five then the top-two. There’s also a puncher’s chance a sixth team could sneak in with an at-large bid.
Comparing both these proposals, the SEC and Big Ten at a minimum still get 50% of the seats at the table, and that’s just assuming no schools from either conference get those at-large bids. In the 16-team proposal, it’s more likely they would get it, but in the 28-team, not so much.
Arguably the biggest criticism of going out to 28 teams is that it dilutes the regular season because there’s more room for error. A team can drop two or three games and still be on the inside track of the postseason in the 28-team proposal.
On the flip side, there is a case it only diminishes *part of the regular season. More teams would theoretically have something to play for: making the playoffs. Getting one of those bids still means having to finish at least 5-3 in the ACC and winning eight or nine games. If anything, in-conference games become a lot more valuable.
To play devil’s advocate briefly: does a 7-5 Michigan team really deserve a playoff spot? Absolutely not, but it could (and probably would) have gotten one in the 28-team proposal. The conference games may get a bump as explained above, but at the same time, what’s the point of playing in a conference if there’s no championship game, which every other major college sport has? And… it’s 28 teams. Sooner or later, someone will propose a 36-team field, and then want 48 teams, and then 64. You get the point.
In short, there’s no clear right answer that solves everything nor makes all the players involved happy. That said, of all the wonky ideas out there, Syracuse stands to benefit the most from this crazy 28-team model.
