The Royals have won eight in a row, and although its probably too late to make a real run, it can offer some hope for fans. There are, of course, plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Royals’ second-half surge. There is nothing to play for, so these games can be downplayed a bit. But historically, teams that have gone from this bad in the first half to this good in the second half have often had something real going on. So I went looking at how often these dramatic turnarounds have translated
into success the following season.
It may seem like the Royals frequently play well once they’re well out of the race and its meaningless, but that isn’t necessarily the case. David Lesky wrote about this popular presumption three years ago:
Since 1995, there have been 27 seasons with a first half and a second half. So I’m excluding 2020 here. Of those 27 seasons, the Royals in the second half have posted a winning percentage of .450+ and had a second-half winning percentage that was at least 40 points higher than the first half a total of SIX times. Two of those six were in 2013 and 2014 and they actually did mean something.
And to take that even further, this year’s Royals team is not just playing better than they did in the first half, they have improved more than almost any other team in club history. Only nine Royals teams had a losing record at the All-Star break, and winning record in second-half games. This year’s Royals have the third-best record in the second half out of all of those teams.
One team made the playoffs due to a hot second half – the odd split-half post-season of 1981, where the team was allowed to reset after a terrible start. Four teams made the playoffs the following season – 1979, 1984, 2013, and 2025. the two teams who couldn’t sustain their success are the 2021 team that regressed to lose 97 games the next year under Mike Matheny, and the 1996 team that lost 97 games the next year despite adding veterans Jeff King, Jay Bell, and Chili Davis.
How does this hot second half compare to all MLB teams? I looked at splits since 2000 – 30 teams before this year had a losing record in the first half, and went on to have a .560 winning percentage or better in the second half. The Royals and Red Sox are both achieving that mark this year.
Does the hot second half carry over into the next season? Of the 30 prior teams, 22 would have a winning record the next season, and 14 made the playoffs (the Guardians got better in the second half of 2025, we will see if they can make a run this year). Notably, the 2013 Royals went 43-49 in the first half, but played .614 ball in the second half. They made a late run and nearly made the playoffs with a young team that included Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Alex Gordon. The core of that team took the momentum into next season, winning their first pennant in 29 years.
As you can see, the Royals are on pace to become just the fourth team since 2000 to play worse than .400 in the first half, and better than .560 in the second half. The other three:
- The 2000 Astros had the “Killer B’s” (Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, and Lance Berkman) and a fearsome lineup, but one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball that caused them to go 30-57 in the first half. They underperformed their run differential that season, so their second half was likely them playing up to their true talent level. The next season they won 93 games and took the division with a much improved pitching staff.
- The 2002 Blue Jays fired manager Buck Martinez after a 20-33 start and didn’t really take off under new manager Carlos Tosca until late August. They won 25 of their final 36 games and finished 78-84. Carlos Delgado was one of the best hitters in baseball in the second half, and the pitching went from god awful (despite an All- Star season from Roy Halladay), to not-totally-terrible. The Jays carried over that hot month to win 86 games the next year, but missed the playoffs under Tosca.
- The 2012 Padres went on an eight-game winning streak in August (sound familiar?) and got a monster second-half from Chase Headley, who became an MVP candidate. Carlos Quentin was healthy in the second half and hit, and Yonder Alonso went on a late surge. The Padres couldn’t follow up the success however, they got off to another poor start in 2013 and finished 76-86.
All of this comes with some caveats. The Royals have played just 35 second-half games, still a bit of a small sample size. Just a week and a half ago, they had a losing record in the second half. They have gone on a hot stretch against three teams with losing records – the Angels, Athletics, and Tigers.
But if the Royals can continue to play this well, it could portend good things for next year. A lineup with Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone, and Carter Jensen can be pretty dangerous. Noah Cameron may have figured something out. Michael Wacha is still steady. Randy Dobnak may be a real find. The bullpen….well, let’s address that next year.
None of this guarantees the Royals will suddenly become a contender in 2027. But the history suggests this kind of turnaround is worth paying attention to, and the Royals have enough young talent that there are reasons to believe this might not just be a hot streak.
