In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays dropped the first game of the American League Championship Series to the Boston Red Sox. The offense couldn’t muster anything against Daisuke Matsuzaka and the team suffered a 2-0 shutout.
The next day, the bats woke up and the two teams engaged in a forgotten classic with Tampa Bay coming out on top thanks to a BJ Upton sacrifice fly and the blazing speed of Fernando Perez.
After two games, the series was split and the Rays lost their home field advantage.
It didn’t matter
as the Rays decimated the Red Sox in games three and four and were a few outs from winning game five. They eventually took the series in seven games.
The two games couldn’t not have been more different from the current ALCS but the stage remains the same as the Rays head from the comfy confines of Tropicana Field and head up to Ohio where the weather will be a factor. Bad weather in the postseason quickly brings back painful memories of the 2008 World Series, but MLB is attempting to be proactive during the ALCS as they have already moved up the first pitch for Game 3 to 1:00pm.
Currently, the forecast for the Cleveland area shows to be an overcast cool today with the rain not expected to develop until later in the night, thus allowing the two teams ample time to complete the game.
Tampa Bay will have a tough task ahead of them as 27-year old Gavin Williams take the mound. The four-year veteran of the Guardians staff has been solid throughout his career but broke out during the 2026 campaign with a newfound ability to generate strikeouts. Entering the season, the former 2021 first round pick Williams had a 24.1 K% over 325.2 IP. Williams soared to new heights over 184.1 IP in 2026 as he struck out 33.2% of opposing hitters. Gavin Williams had the highest BB% of qualifying starting pitchers 2025 (11.8%) but he managed to drop that to 8.2% in 2026 wihich is in the middle of the pack. Thanks to his high strikeout totals and improvement in command, Williams ranked 3rd among starting pitchers in K-BB%.
Overall for the 2026 season, Williams finished with a 3.76 ERA | 3.47 FIP with the aforementioned 33.2 K% & 8.2 BB% over 184.1 IP.
There will be an immovable object versus unstoppable force energy going as Williams is among the best in baseball in getting whiffs. Among 178 pitchers with at least 80 IP in 2026, Williams had the 4th lowest contact% with hitters only connecting 69.3% of the time. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays as a whole were elite at making contact, easily leading the MLB with a 18.3 contact%.
Williams has already made three appearances this postseason, pitching in three games of the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox. He carved through the South Side hitters with ease, striking out 52.2% of the opposing hitters over 11.2 IP. Williams was an integral to Cleveland’s game five victory as he hurled 5.2 shutout innings, while allowing just one hit, walking two, and striking out 12.
Going to the mound for the Rays will be Griffin Jax, making his first start since September 26th when he pitched three innings against the Philadelphia Phillies during the final weekend of the regular season.
The former reliever turner starter has shown flashes of brilliance during his outings this season but has also been infuriatingly inconsistent. Over 34 appearances – 23 starts – Jax has compiled a 3.53 ERA | 3.76 FIP with a 25.3 K% & and 7.6 BB% over 112.1 IP. Jax’s most recent outing game during game three of the ALDS against the New York Yankees where he allowed a run on one hit, while he struck out four over two innings pitched.
The Rays have managed to win four of their five games this postseason, despite an overall lackluster showing from their offense. The team has averaged just over three runs a game and currently opposing pitching staffs have a 2.14 ERA against them. Yandy Diaz is currently hitting just .238 over 22 PA while Jonathan Aranda is hitting .222 over his 21 PA. As a whole, the team is hitting .215/.271/329 during the playoffs.
A bright sign is the team’s K% is roughly the same as the regular season (18.6% postseason compared to 18.8% regular season). The Rays BABIP luck from the regular season has failed to transfer to October thus far as the team maintained a .296 BABIP over the 162 schedule to a lowly .246 over their 5 playoff games.
First pitch will be a 1:00pm
