UFC 334 takes place this Saturday, headlined by a heavyweight title fight between newly minted champion Ciryl Gane and surging upstart Josh Hokit.
Gane won an interim belt by beating Alex Pereira at UFC White House, and was later elevated to the undisputed champion after Tom Aspinall had a setback in his recovery. Hokit, meanwhile, was fighting his way into the UFC via Contender Series just a year ago, but now finds himself on the cusp of holding a UFC title.
Let’s take a look at what we can expect
from these two men on Saturday.
Path to victory for Ciryl Gane at UFC 334
Because he joined the UFC so early in his career, it’s easy to forget that Gane has only been an MMA fighter for eight years. At 36 years old, this is right around the time we’d normally expect to see a fighter begin to truly peak, and there’s some evidence of that being true for Gane.
Gane has always been one of the most athletic heavyweights in the UFC, so much so that it became a running joke when Joe Rogan would say he “moves like a middleweight.” But joke or not, that movement has been a huge part of Gane’s success. He doesn’t have the world’s best footwork, but it’s good enough to stymie most heavyweights, allowing Gane to slow fights to the pace he wants and pick his spots. His general quickness allows him to pot-shot with low-risk maneuvers at range, sticking a jab and low kicks to score and chip away at opponents. Eventually, those opponents tend to get frustrated and walk on to much more serious offense as they begin to press, and that’s where Gane can capitalize.
The solution to this problem — unless you’re Alexander Volkov, who fixed it with body kicks and being enormous — has been to take advantage of Gane’s grappling. Gane is not a great wrestler, and he’s plagued by baffling decision-making, too. While Gane has the ability to pursue a variety of submissions, he’ll often sacrifice good position to chase them, like a blue belt who just learned a new submission and wants to try it out. This has cost him significantly in fights, and if he does it against Hokit by jumping a guillotine or something, it could do so yet again.
For Gane, the key to this fight is to not play the grappling game with Hokit. When Hokit inevitably gets takedowns, Gane needs to focus on standing up, not chasing kimuras. If he can consistently do that, Hokit will slow down and likely engage on the feet more willingly. And that’s the real ticket for Gane. While Hokit is not without weapons in the striking department, he lacks any real defense, and Gane should have a field day with his jab and power shots, especially as the fight drags on.
Path to victory for Josh Hokit at UFC 334
It’s hard to know what to make of Hokit. While his run to the title shot has been impressive, it’s also largely come against poor opposition. Max Gimenes and Denzel Freeman aren’t exactly world-beaters, and Derrick Lewis is so far past his prime we’re starting to get infomercials playing. The one unambiguously great win that Hokit has is Curtis Blaydes; even Blaydes isn’t at his best anymore. So what do we make of Hokit and what can we say for certain about his skills?
He’s definitely talented. Hokit is extremely athletic (though not as athletic as he thinks he is) and appears to have a natural inclination toward fighting. He’s probably the fastest heavyweight in the UFC right now, both of feet and of hand, and while he doesn’t have real heavyweight pop in his hands, he has enough power to keep opponents honest. Plus, Hokit has good wrestling, very good ground-and-pound, and seemingly excellent cardio. That all adds up to a potent combination at heavyweight.
But Hokit’s weaknesses are also evident. First off, he’s very small for a heavyweight. Hokit is really a natural light heavyweight who just isn’t cutting because he can thrive in a worse weight class; and he might even really be a middleweight. That size makes him fast for the division, but it also makes him vulnerable to the big hitters in the weight class. Bladyes had Hokit’s head bobbling around from jabs, and he’s far from the biggest hitter in the weight class. Hokit is also extremely inexperienced, and he fights like it; he’s all raw aggression and pressure, with minimal defense, and that’s the sort of thing that works until it doesn’t.
And this is one of those fights where it might not work for long. Hokit’s speed and aggression should be effective early against Gane, but if he can’t find a quick finish, those same things will run him headlong into serious offense. For Hokit to win, he needs to put Gane under immense pressure right away, and use that pressure to score takedowns and ground-and-pound. The more damage he can put on Gane early, the less likely it is for Gane to build himself back up; the more likely it is that Hokit gets his hand raised.
Prediction
I think Hokit’s speed is going to be a real problem for Gane, especially early. He’s spent his entire career using his own speed and athleticism to make life hard on his opponents, and for the first time he’s going to have to contend with someone who bests him in that regard. That being said, it feels like Gane is coming into the peak version of himself, and Hokit is so hell-bent on delivering action that he may be overly aggressive, even more so than normal. Gane’s jab probably takes control of this fight in the second round, and then it’s a matter of time before Hokit eats something he can’t handle.
Ciryl Gane def. Josh Hokit via TKO (punches) — 1:04, Round 3
