We’re at the starting line of yet another NFL season, as the Atlanta Falcons look to fight their way out of the wilderness. The team made headlines this offseason by cleaning house from top to bottom and replacing all of the primary decision makers in Flowery Branch, booting away Raheem Morris, Terry Fontenot and Rich McKay after another period of failure.
Now, with Matt Ryan, Ian Cunningham and Kevin Stefanski at the helm, Atlanta looks to transition into a period of prosperity, something they haven’t
had since Ryan himself was operating under center as the team’s quarterback.
We will go game by game with the Falcons throughout the season answering two simple questions before each game — what will happen from a scenario perspective if they win this coming week, as well as if they lose.
The Falcons are currently in the midst of a nine year playoff draught, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. If they win and are in contention for a post season spot, this series will be looking at possible playoff and division based scenarios. Conversely, if they go the familiar route of losing too much, this will become a series looking at draft based scenarios.
Let’s get right into it then for the 2026 season. Here is the scenario the Falcons face if they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, as well as if they lose.
If the Falcons win
It will be a dream start for Kevin Stefanski, who will become the first non-interim Falcons head coach to start his tenure with a victory since Dan Quinn’s victory on Monday Night Football in 2015. He will do so by beating a team he faced as a division rival the last six seasons, in Cleveland, as well.
The Falcons themselves will get off to their first 1-0 start since beating Carolina at home in 2023, and will avenge a 2024 home defeat against the Steelers in that season opener, which was also Raheem Morris’ first game in his new Falcons tenure. This would also be just the second time Atlanta won game one of the season since 2017, which is also the last time they made it to the playoffs.
This would not be a victory against just any opponent — it would be just Atlanta’s third triumph over the Steelers in 20 tries, historically. Pittsburgh is the team that has beaten the Falcons more thoroughly than anybody else according to win percentage. This would be the Birds’ first win in this matchup in exactly two decades; it would also be their first victory in Pittsburgh ever.
The Falcons have a home game against a Panthers team that’s had their number in recent memory coming up, and going into that game with a 1-0 record will not only increase their confidence but it would relieve any pressure of potentially digging themselves into an 0-2 hole from the jump.
If the Falcons lose
It will be more of the same historically — another head coach starting his Falcons career off with a defeat, another season starting 0-1, another loss to the Steelers specifically. Following a turbulent training camp and preseason period, the fanbase will likely be a bit more distraught than usual with another poor start.
Stefanski’s own personal record against the Steel Curtain will fall to 6-8 (6-7 with Cleveland which, all things considered is pretty good given how bad the Browns have historically been in that matchup since becoming reestablished as a franchise).
Atlanta’s schedule this season isn’t what I would consider light. Early on, their upcoming games in the immediate aftermath of this one will be against a Panthers team that swept them last season followed by a Thursday night trip to Lambeau Field to face a very good Packers team. This isn’t even getting to the difficult part of the schedule yet. Things could begin getting a bit dire quickly if they start out with a defeat right from the jump.
