Before the season, when it was announced that Dylan Harper would join the starting lineup as an addition to the backcourt, rather than replacing De’Aaron Fox or Stephon Castle, it naturally raised some questions. Chief among them was how a lineup of three guards would function.
Some fair concerns might be if the group is too small and susceptible to getting picked on defensively, or if it might struggle to find offensive chemistry, the “one ball problem.” However, that hasn’t been the case at all.
Overall, the Spurs are first in the league in offensive rating and second in defensive rating (adjusted for strength of schedule per dunksandthrees.com).
Looking at the lineup data of just the three guards thus far, they are plus 35 points per 100 possessions (per cleaningtheglass.com), ranking in the 100th percentile. Now it is important to note that this three-man group is actually a four-man group, in all honesty. Among the 298 possessions (garbage time filtered out), all of them feature Victor Wembanyama. In fact, there are only two lineups in total: one with the four previously mentioned plus Devin Vassell, and the other with Julian Champagnie.
The argument could be made that the group isn’t succeeding in spite of playing three guards but rather that the success they’ve found is augmented by it.
Offensively, Wembanyama’s usage leads not only the team but is among the highest in the league at 33.4 percent. But beyond him, Fox, Castle, and Harper each have a usage around 22 to 26 percent.
Through the way they’ve shared responsibilities, they’ve found something that is more than the sum of its parts, and thus has led them to the best offensive rating in the NBA at 118.2 (adjusted for strength of schedule per dunksandthrees.com). Turns out having three ball handlers who can attack, a shooter, and the best player in the world makes for a pretty good strategy.
On the other side of the court, the numbers are near perfect as well. They sit only behind Oklahoma City in adjusted defensive rating (108.4). If there is a way to attack the three-guard group, the league hasn’t found it yet, so long as the best defender in the world sits behind them.
Coach Mitch Johnson has gotten everyone to buy in, and all of this is reflected in the current win streak (11 games) and their adjusted net rating (+9.8, league best). Both of which are too strong to say this isn’t working.
