Iowa basketball has a rich history of producing quality NBA players, including All Stars, league champions, and even an MVP of both the ABA and one of the NBA’s predecessor leagues. However, Iowa’s success
in developing productive pros has seriously fallen off in recent decades. Only three former Hawkeyes drafted in the last 20 years have played in 100+ NBA games, and only one of those players (Keegan Murray) has established himself as a consistent starter.
This season, one of Iowa’s most decorated former stars has an opportunity to carve out the biggest role of his career on a potential playoff team. After spending the first four years of his NBA career as a reserve, former All-American and national player of the year Luka Garza will compete for significant minutes for the Boston Celtics, a team only one year removed from winning an NBA championship. The Celtics aren’t viewed as serious championship contenders this year by most analysts due to the significant injury to their star forward Jayson Tatum and the departure of established veterans such as Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porziņģis. However, with standouts like Jaylen Brown and Derrick White still in the fold and growing optimism that Tatum will recover from his Achilles surgery earlier than expected, its very possible that Luka Garza could contend for major postseason minutes in 2025-26.
This will not be Garza’s first NBA season playing for a contender. After spending his rookie year in Detroit, Garza played the past three seasons with the Minnesota Timberwolves, during which time he saw action in twelve playoff games and made back-to-back Western Conference Finals. However, Garza struggled to carve out a consistent role on the Timberwolves due to the logjam in the team’s frontcourt. Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, Sixth-man of the Year Naz Reid, and All-Stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Julius Randle have all logged major minutes for the Timberwolves over the past few seasons, making it difficult for Garza to crack the rotation. The former Hawkeye averaged only 6.3 minutes per game during his time in Minnesota, and only 3.8 minutes per game during the playoffs.
However, Garza has proven himself to be an incredibly efficient offensive player during his limited minutes. Extrapolated over the course of a full NBA game, Garza’s scoring average with the Timberwolves amounts to 34.36 points per 48 minutes, which is the highest of any player in franchise history who has played in 50+ regular season games. Points per 48 minutes is an admittedly flawed metric for projecting player performance, as it’s highly unlikely Garza could sustain that level of scoring output over the course of a full game. Still, this shows Garza’s potential offensive impact, particularly in the role of a microwave scorer off the bench.
On the Celtics, Garza should finally have an opportunity to prove he can shine in a larger offensive role. While the Timberwolves were replete with frontcourt talent, the Celtics are short on proven big men. Garza’s biggest contenders for minutes at center are:
- Neemias Queta, a seven-footer who drew positive reviews after his EuroBasket performance this summer, but who has played only sparingly with the Celtics in the past;
- Chris Boucher, a solid stretch big, but who is slight for the position at only 200 lbs., and;
- Xavier Tillman, who is only 6’8” and who barely played for Boston after being acquired mid-season.
Any of these players could emerge as Boston’s go-to center, and there’s no guarantee Garza will earn a spot in the rotation. But as far as positional competition goes for an NBA playoff contender, it’s hard to imagine much more favorable situation for Garza to contend for significant minutes.
Garza’s three-point shooting could play a major factor in determining what role he will play in Boston’s rotation. Last year, Boston led the league in three-point attempts with a whopping 48.2 per game, taking almost six more three pointers per contest than the second most prolific three-point shooting team (Golden State). With some analysts projecting that the Celtics will shoot even more threes per game this season while Tatum is hurt, Garza’s ability to hit from range could go a long way towards earning him major minutes. While Boucher is a decent from three-point range, Tillman has only shot 25.2% from deep in his career, and Queta has never even attempted a three in an NBA game. Garza was an excellent three-point shooter at Iowa, making nearly 37% of his threes over his career and shooting an incendiary 44% as a senior. Thus far, Garza’s three-point shooting has not translated to the NBA; he is only a 31.4% shooter and made a career-low 27.8% of his attempts last year. However, if Garza can rediscover his long-range shooting prowess this season, it could be the key to him unlocking a bigger role on his new team.
Similarly, Garza will need to tap into his time as a productive college rebounder to secure major minutes for the Celtics. Garza averaged 9.25 rebounds per game during his final two seasons at Iowa, emerging as a force on the glass after Tyler Cook bolted for the NBA. Given the Celtics’ lack of traditional centers, Boston coach Joe Mazzulla has emphasized the importance in dominating the defensive glass this year, even going so far as to pull Garza early from a preseason game against Cleveland after he allowed an offensive rebound. None of the Boston big men contending for starting minutes are elite NBA rebounders, so Garza’s trademark hustle and effort could help separate him from the competition if he can make his mark on the glass. Garza shed 30 pounds after leaving Iowa in an effort to increase his quickness and foot speed, but this has made him less of an imposing force on the block than he was in college. Can Garza reemerge as an impactful rebounder despite his slighter frame?
Finally, Garza’s defense could ultimately determine how large a role he is able to play on the Celtics. Even if Garza emerges as Boston’s best offensive big, his defensive struggles could still put a ceiling on his minutes. Garza’s physical transformation has made him noticeably quicker than he was at Iowa, but he is also playing against an entirely different caliber of athlete in the NBA. Garza is a decent post defender, but he has never been a rim protector, and his lack of lateral quickness has led to struggles defending perimeter players on pick-and-roll plays. Garza is never going to be an elite NBA defender, although his offensive acumen has been sufficient to help him carve out a role in the league. However, Garza cannot be a complete liability on defense if he wants to emerge as a consistent impact player for the Celtics. Even making marginal defensive improvements would make it much easier for the Celtics to leave Garza on the floor for large stretches of time and could help secure him a larger role.
After four years as a marginal NBA rotation player, Luka Garza has a legitimate opportunity to emerge as a reliable starter or significant contributor to a potential playoff team. If given a larger role, Garza’s offensive skills could allow him to emerge as a productive player who can meaningfully contribute to winning. If similar players like Kelly Olynyk, Mike Muscala, and Ryan Anderson can carve out long productive careers in the NBA, who is to say Garza can’t capitalize on this opportunity to do so as well? As Hawkeye fans are well aware, betting against Luka Garza to succeed is rarely a winning gamble.
